Justin Mason’s Baseball Chat – January 9th, 2023

Justin Mason: Welcome to my chat, live from COVID-19 isolation!  I may be a little slow and could end early today considering I have COVID and so does my family. We will begin right at the top of the hours as long as we have enough questions so get them in.

Justin Mason: In the meantime, please follow me on all my social media’s (twitter, tiktok, facebook, youtube, and instagram) at JustinMasonFWFB! I am doing 30 team preview podcasts in 30 days on the FWFB podcast as well as three episodes a week for the Sleeper and the Bust so definitely make sure you are subscribed there as well!

Justin Mason: I am also doing a giveaway each month for a free Rotowear shirt. To get entered in to win just give the FWFB Baseball podcast a 5 star review

Justin Mason: Just waiting on some more questions…

BPVE: I am struggling with two groups of pitchers. Group 1 is the uber-talented, unsure role or playing time (Aaron Ashby, Hunter Brown, Garrett Whitlock, Tanner Houck, Grayson Rodriguez) and Group 2 is injury concern (Eovaldi, Flaherty, Montas). These guys are going in somewhat similar ranges and could continue to cluster up as draft season continues. How do you think through these different “bet on talent” risks?

Justin Mason: It is definitely about league depth and roster construction. The deeper the league the less likely I am to take these kind of risks. If you are playing in a 10-team or 12-team league, you can afford these gambles much more as there will be replacement level on the waiver wire. Also, if you build the top of your rotation with really safe guys that you know will get innings, it becomes easier to gamble on these guys as well. I like a lot of the names here also, but I try not to put too many of them together on the same teams because it just adds to the chance my whole team falls apart.

Justin Mason: Put it like this, if one of these guys have a 50% chance of paying off then if you take two 50% x 50% = 25%. If you take three 50% x 50% x 50% = 12.5%.

Scotty: Hope you and the family feel better, my dude!

Justin Mason: Thanks! we are actually doing well all things considered. Just dealing with the residual symptoms at this point.

Your Name: Who’s closing for the Cubs? Tigers?

Justin Mason: If the Tigers enter the season with what they currently have, I think Alex Lange makes the most sense, but it is probably some sort of committee. However, I wouldn’t be surprised if they bring someone in. Maybe they bring back Chafin or Fulmer?

Justin Mason: The Cubs looks like a nightmare committee situation to be honest. I would be surprised if anyone got 20 saves there.

boobie miles: Will Miguel Vargas be a full time plater this year….and if so, at what position (primarily)?

Justin Mason: I think the Dodgers give him a shot to be the Opening Day third baseman. I am higher on him than most in the industry

Guest: Rank these guys…, J. Luzardo, K. Wright. Quantrill and Detmers?

Justin Mason: Wright, Luzardo, Detmers, Quantrill, but I have Luzardo and Detmers pretty close together.

Rick in Hawaii: CJ Abrams

Justin Mason: I really like Abrams this year as a post-hype prospect. Too often the fantasy industry buries these top prospects if they struggle in their first go around. He should play everyday in a nice park. There is definitely contact ability and speed and I think some power will develop.

boobie miles: Esteuary Ruiz beat out C. Pache for the CF job in Oakland? What’s his o/u for SBs?

Justin Mason: I think there is a good chance of this or a chance that one is CF and the other is LF or they trade Laureano. O/U 25.5 is where I would set the line and I think I would take the over especially if he has a starting spot.

LAughing: The Dodgers lineup looks surprisingly human this year (that is to say, excellent but not The Avengers-level). Will they produce at an elite level again, and is Max Muncy going to return to form?

Justin Mason: I was very surprised that the Dodgers didn’t make many waves in free agency. Maybe they think they can still win 90 games even with losing the guys they did. Muncy rebounded in the second half, hitting .247/.358/.500 with 12 home runs and 37 RBI from August 1 on. I think he will be back to what he was in 2023. A .240-.250 hitter with a strong OBP and 25-30 HRs.

Yainer Diaz: Should I be the Astro’s backup catcher to start the year? Or will Lee/a FA signing leapfrog me?

Justin Mason: I think he may get held down for a bit at the start of the season, but he is up to replace Lee early. A very intriguing guy that I did know much about until my Astros preview with Eric Samulski that posted yesterday on the FWFB baseball podcast.

Deathclaw: Some analysts on this site are cautioning hard against Oneil Cruz forthis year. But how high do you value him in a dynasty context? Is he a top 75 keeper?

Justin Mason: I think so, but I have always had a huge crush on Cruz. All he has ever done is crush baseballs. There is no reason for the Pirates to not let him just go out there and hit bombs and strikeout.

rupertfromscotland: Mitch Garver is DH only, do you think he sees enough appearances behind the plate to be a sneaky 2nd C option

Justin Mason: Probably not especially because he is not going to be catcher eligible in most leagues outside of yahoo. He likely starts on a short-side platoon at DH and as the back up catcher, but dude struggles to stay healthy.

Yuni B: How do you see the Phillies saves situation working out with the Kimbrel and now Soto additions?

Justin Mason: I think this is an absolute nightmare for fantasy. I think Kimbrel gets the initial shot, but that this could continuously change hands all season.

Jose Ramirez’s Chain: Who is your least fun MLB player to watch?  Someone who is objectively good at what they do but you derive no pleasure from watching them perform? Dislike due to rivalries, etc. excluded

Justin Mason: This is a really good question. As a Giants fan, I probably lean Julio Urias. He is a very good pitcher, but I hate the Dodgers and his off the field problems from early in his career make me like him a lot less.

Justin Mason: Even as a Giants fan, I still love watching guys like Mookie and Kershaw play in spite that I hate them because they wear blue.

Deathclaw: Is there any room for Kyle Wright to grow or is a mid rotation starter his ceiling?

Justin Mason: I think what we saw last season is probably the peak, but I think there is a good chance he can maintain that. The 12% swinging strike rate leads me to believe there aren’t more strikeouts coming, but if he can maintain a 24% K rate, that’s pretty good with his ability to limit walks and home runs.

Matt: NL Only keeper salary cap – would you feel comfortable rolling with Raisel ($7) & A.Diaz ($5) as your closers?

Justin Mason: Absolutely!

Guest: Please help me rank 3 keepers in a 12 team NL . Goldy for 35, Edwin Diaz for 28 and Joey Meneses for 7.

Justin Mason: I think that is the order, but I can understand putting Diaz first if there won’t be many saves left on the market after keepers.

Deathclaw: Do you think Bo Naylor will steal bases one he settles into the majors? He seems to have some very sneaky fantasy upside of so.

Justin Mason: I think he could steal 5+ but I worry that the Guardians aren’t going to give him enough playing time because they prioritize defense over offense at the catcher position.

Deathclaw: Which SP past pick 250ish have the highest upside?

Justin Mason: Michael Kopech, Hunter Brown, Tyler Anderson, Eduardo Rodriguez, Tylor Megill. Lots of good, interesting pitchers going outside the top 250 right now

Joey Baggadonuts: Josh Jung still look like a 60-FV guy to you? The strikeouts were kinda scary after he got promoted. Think he’s startable in a 12-teamer (points, no penalty for k’s)? What’s a realistic expectation for him this year?

Justin Mason: I absolutely do. Throw out the 2022 numbers because he was coming off of Major surgery. The fact he even played was impressive. I am drafting him in a lot of spots this year.

Mrs. Featherbottom: What are your thoughts on Cal Raleigh for 2023? He hit the ball hard and put up pretty solid numbers in his first full season. Any reason to think there might be more in the tank?

Justin Mason: I don’t think there is a ton more in the tank, but he is what we saw last season, a catcher that can hit 25-30 bombs, but the average is going to suck.

Pat Listachio: Under the radar holds candidates?

Justin Mason: I dont play in a ton of holds leagues, but Alex Vesia, Anthony Bass, John Schreiber, David Robertson, Trevor Stephan are all names I am targeting.

Taximan: Twice had Covid, and it was easier the second time around (after I was vaccinated).  I used two different strategies the last couple of years in my 11 team NL only 5X5 roto (23 man roster, super utility with 4of, sv+1/2hold ) auction league (entering our 33rd year!).  Balanced team with no superstars (over $25) in 2021, and after winning that year I came in last year with house money and spent big on two of the superstars available (Betts and Acuna), so more of a stars and scrubs resulted in 2nd (in first until passed on the last day).  Do you have more success by changing things up for draft strategies in established leagues?

Justin Mason: Absolutely! I try and do what I think other people won’t expect. In my original home league, I would always come in with a different strategy to throw off the league and I won three of my last four years before I was asked not to return lol. I think having a strategy that is different can definitely set you apart.

Justin Mason: I had a set strategy coming into 2022 in a lot of leagues, but my strategies will be completely different for those leagues in 2023.

Vic: Also Tellez at 14?

Justin Mason: Ummm… I have Tellez at 15 at first base if that is the question.

rupertfromscotland: How do we feel about Chris Taylor this Year? 2B & OF is still nice but was so disappointing last season

Justin Mason: I think he bounces back after a rough 2022, but not to 2021 levels. Like a 15/10 guy with a .240ish average

Randy: Logan Gilbert or Alek Thomas and Brayan Rocchio in a standard 12 team keep forever league

Justin Mason: Gilbert

Walton Dilcox: Taillon, Bassit, or Walker?

Justin Mason: Bassitt

Justin Mason: Unfortunately, I have to wrap things up a little early.

Justin Mason: Please follow me on all my social media’s (twitter, tiktok, facebook, youtube, and instagram) at JustinMasonFWFB! I am doing 30 team preview podcasts in 30 days on the FWFB podcast as well as three episodes a week for the Sleeper and the Bust so definitely make sure you are subscribed there as well!

Justin Mason: Thank you for so many great questions!