Justin Mason’s Baseball Chat – February 3rd, 2025
Here is today’s chat transcript:
11:30 |
: Chat will begin at the top of the hour. In the meantime, please follow me on all my social media’s (twitter, tiktok, facebook, youtube, bluesky, and instagram) at JustinMasonFWFB! I am doing regular podcasts on the FWFB podcast as well as three episodes a week for the Sleeper and the Bust so definitely make sure you are subscribed there as well! |
12:00 |
: Is Eddy Julien just doomed to kind of be the odd man out for eternity in Minnesota? |
12:02 |
: Feels like it right now, but there are a lot of avenues for him to pick up playing time and work himself into a regular role because this is such an injury plagued team. Correa, Buxton, and Lewis are all huge injury risks so I am not ignoring Julien. |
12:02 |
: 12 team 40 man roster dynasty, is it worth trading Conforto for Rengifo? Batted ball data says Conforto might be due for a resurgence in LA, but I could use the speed and PT from Rengifo. |
12:03 |
: I like this deal. Conforto can struggle with health and if he struggles on the field, the Dodgers will go to other options. Rengifo is multi-positional eligible and has a lot of upside if he can stay on the field. |
12:03 |
: Hey Justin – Who are a couple guys skyrocketing up ADP charts that are getting your attention? How about a couple falling in ADP that look like some good “buy lows” in draft season? |
12:08 |
Michael Toglia, Willson Contreras, Ivan Herrera, Matt McLain, Matt Shaw, Isaac Paredes, Thairo Estrada and Michael Conforto. The droppers are Nico Hoerner, Zach Neto, Ha-Seong Kim 김하성, Gleyber Torres, and Christopher Morel. I really like Neto as a potential buy low because I have seen some videos that suggest he might be ready sooner rather than later. : Risers and fallers right now are largely due to injury or signings/trades so it is often a bit overrated until we pitchers and catchers report. That being said, some of the biggest risers I have seen are Roki Saski, |
12:08 |
Colt Keith adding more value this year in Roto? Trying to decide whether or not he should be my last keeper (25 man). Thanks! : Do you see |
12:09 |
: I really love Keith this season. I think he showed a really good hit tool last season and there is a ton of power in that bat. Adding first base eligibility is going to be great for his flexibility as well. |
12:09 |
Jake Fraley at $10 and Willson Contreras at $18. Offensively I’m keeping Acuna, Marsh, Tovar, Steer, and Wood, plus 3 pitchers. Thoughts? : 10 team, NL Only, auction keeper league, keep 7-10, 20% inflation usually. I’m on the fence with |
12:10 |
: Contreras all day. He could get the most plate appearances from any catcher eligible player in fantasy this year since he is going to be playing first and DH exclusively. |
12:10 |
: Justin, which catchers are your favorite targets in the ‘creamy middle’ of 2025 drafts? Also, any FYPD favorites in the Mason household? |
12:12 |
Austin Wells, Hunter Goodman, and Patrick Bailey. Don’t forget to check out my full catcher ranks on the site! : So I love Shea Langerliers this year. I think he has a ton of power and the park change will be great for him. He also showed an improvement in the Z-Contact as well which is encouraging. I also love Ivan Herrera, |
12:12 |
George Kirby a lil underrated in fantasy rn? WHIP is a bit more predictable than ERA and his BB/9 is just sick compared to the rest of the field. : Is |
12:14 |
: Compeletly agree with you. I think sometimes we overlook players like him because we don’t see the “upside”, but the upside is in the volume. He is just 26 with two straight 190 inning seasons. He has a full arsenal with fantastic command and control. Sign me up |
12:14 |
: Is Marsh totally a platoon guy at this point? I have no faith in him when it comes to hitting lefties, but am open to other opinions |
12:14 |
: At this point I think that is what he is. The great defense keeps him in sometimes more, but he just isn’t going to get the chances to be a full time guy. |
12:15 |
Jordan Westburg. Need a good 3B. Is Tyler Glasnow a fair trade offer? I have a ton of pitching and pitching prospects to replace him : 12 team dynasty. Wanting to buy into |
12:15 |
: To be fully transparent, I don’t love either guy but you should get more for Glasnow |
12:15 |
Kyle Tucker? Playing to be in contention this year. : 16 tm, $260 dynasty with salary escalation, would you rather have a $3 Volpe or $23 |
12:15 |
: Tucker |
12:16 |
Andrew Painter to make this year? How much would he be worth in an Auction Draft? : How much impact do you expect |
12:16 |
: I think he will make an impact but it may not be until summer. Very few formats where I would hold him on my roster unless you have a minor league player slot. |
12:17 |
: Who are some mid-round SP you think can out earn their ADP? |
12:18 |
Bowden Francis, Spencer Arrighetti, Jose Berrios, Walker Buehler, Jeffrey Springs, David, Festa, Cody Bradford, Justin Verlander, Nick Martinez, Max Meyer : |
12:18 |
Hunter Brown or Pepiot. : Hi Justin – thanks for the chat! Who do you like more in dynasty – |
12:19 |
: Brown |
12:19 |
: but I still love Pepiot. I just think long term, Brown could be a horse |
12:19 |
I have been offered Will Smith LAD and Hunter Greene for William Contreras. I’m very hesitant to part with Contreras but could use Greene. Any thoughts? |
12:19 |
: I think this is fair and getting Greene could be massive |
12:20 |
: In a 12 team mixed roto where we keep 3 hitters and 3Ps. I’ve been offered to trade away Gilber and Ober and get Kyle Tucker? Current keepers are Tatis, JRod, M Harris, Gilbert, Crochet, Ragans. With the trade i would be going from Harris to Tucker….and i would be replacing Gilbert with Schwellenbach. Thoughts? |
12:21 |
: I really like Gilbert and Ober, but I think this is a nice upgrade over Harris so I would be down to do it. I wonder if you could get away with Ragans in the deal over Gilbert. |
12:21 |
: TY Justin for your time. Nats have some exciting young hitters that could surprise and starters may be competent enough for wildcard run. You think that possible? Can only keep 10. Please rank as keep, fence, toss between S Gray $21, Imanaga $22, Wheeler $38, Sale $29, Gore $10 in NL-Only 5×5 $260 24 active w/ 10 players reserve list @ $0 each. Tks. |
12:22 |
: I think the Nats are moving in the right direction and if they made some moves to strengthen the bullpen they could be in the race, but the NL is stacked and they aren’t winning that division. I think Next year is the time they really push for a playoff spot. |
12:23 |
: Sale, Wheeler, Imanaga, Gray Gore |
12:23 |
: Do you see Jose Tena locking down a starting job for Washington at either 3rd or 2nd? |
12:23 |
: I think he will be on the strong side of a platoon at third to start the year. |
12:23 |
Brett Baty plays >130 games on the ML team this year? : Chances |
12:24 |
: 30% |
12:24 |
: Do you think Vinnie P improves enough to be the best 1B on a championship fantasy roster? |
12:24 |
: Maybe it is just blind loyalty, but I really do. I love the contact skills and the team around him is getting better. Just needs to stay on the field. |
12:24 |
: How long until the Dodgers acquire Luka Doncic? |
12:25 |
: I laughed really hard from this lmao. |
12:25 |
: Point awarded! |
12:25 |
: 8 team AL only $260 cap. Would you trade a $3 deGrom to get a $25 Duran? Keepers currently are $22 JRod, $5 Westburg, $1 Dominguez, $1 Crochet, $3 deGRom |
12:25 |
: I would not |
12:25 |
: I see your love for Larry Butler…do you have any for
|
12:27 |
: I am very interested in both Walker and Meadows. I think they could take steps forward this year with Walker making a leap if the reports are good with the reworking of his swing this offseason. I am not a believer in Crow-Armstrong. I think he will play and get his stolen bases, but he is not a good hitter and that average could be terrible. |
12:27 |
: Am I crazy to consider trading away Tatis for Langford in a keep forever league? You have Langford making a big jump this season? |
12:27 |
: I have Langford making a jump but not enough to trade away Tatis. |
12:28 |
James Wood this year? : What is your projection for |
12:28 |
: 22/22 .265 |
12:28 |
Will Benson tweaking his swing? Looking at his plate discipline, he doesn’t chase a ton and is aggressive when it’s in the zone. If his contact % can go up, he seems like he would be a decent player with his power/speed : I know that this is the time of year where everybody is trying something new and in “the best shape of their life”, but do you put any stock into |
12:29 |
: Something to watch in spring but don’t buy it unless we see a real change in spring games. |
12:29 |
: Hey Justin are you in LABR or TOUT this year? |
12:29 |
: Also have those draft dates been set? |
12:29 |
: I am in both! LABR is the first weekend of March and Tout is St. Paddy’s day weekend. |
12:29 |
: Had a moment of silence over the weekend to remember all my Erceg shares, good move by the Royals, but very sad for my teams |
12:30 |
: I am with you on that one. Truly bummed for my gladiator teams |
12:30 |
: In a 12-team standard roto, keep 12 forever, how much should you reach for prospects knowing that if they hit you can keep them forever? Two draft rounds early? Three? |
12:31 |
: I am a big believer in having a long term or a short term plan. If you want to just build a team that can potentially dominate in years to come, then really push up those top prospects. I am not opposed to 12 of you first 14-15 picks being prospects. Just know that you won’t be competitive for a while and there is a chance that the league will fold before you ever are. |
12:32 |
: I tend to go the opposite way in these leagues because you just never know how long a league will be around |
12:32 |
: No love for Westburg? I can trade a $5 Westburg to get a $19 Altuve and a $25 Duran….thoughts? 8 team AL only $260 cap |
12:32 |
: I would do this in a heart beat. I am not a big Westburg guy |
12:32 |
: Hi Justin. Where do you project Flaherty after signing in Detroit where he has had success? |
12:33 |
: I am doing his projection tonight or tomorrow, but I do like the landing spot. Good park and an improving team |
12:33 |
Henry Davis will ever pan out into the player he was suppose to? : Do you think |
12:33 |
: Probably not but that doesn’t mean he can be a good regular |
12:33 |
: Over/Under 125 innings for McClanahan this year? |
12:33 |
: Over but not by much |
12:33 |
: What do you give better odds to – Ohtani putting up another 50/50 season or MLB instituting a salary cap? |
12:33 |
: Salary cap |
12:34 |
|
12:34 |
: I think Kirby is a perfect target for Durran. Or Crochet, Gilbert or Wheeler. |
12:35 |
: Projections on Manzardo this year? |
12:35 |
: 18 HR .235 avg |
12:35 |
: In reference to the earlier Colt Keith question, isn’t he in a platoon? |
12:36 |
: I don’t think he will be initially. If he struggles than maybe |
12:36 |
Lawrence Butler or Dylan Crews for a dynasty league target? : Would you prefer |
12:36 |
: Crews, but that is close |
12:36 |
: Over/Under 115 innings for deGrom this season |
12:36 |
: Over |
12:36 |
: but barely |
12:36 |
: Damn fat fingers. 16 team 5×5 roto, S+H instead of saves, OBP instead of AVG. 2C. 6 keepers. I will be keeping Betts and DeGrom. Trying to decide on last 4, with R. Blanco, J. Flaherty, L.Gil, E. Suarez, C. Cowser, T. O’Neill, and L. Roberts Jr as options. Trying to balance risk/reward with a lot of risk in there it seems to me. |
12:37 |
: Flaherty, Robert, and praying a lot |
12:37 |
: Gil and Cowser too |
12:37 |
: Who is this year’s Skubal in your eyes. Ie a young pitcher who showed progression who can make the leap to stardom (not counting Skenes) |
12:39 |
Michael King, Bryce Miller, Bailey Ober, Jared Jones, Shane Baz. I want to add in Spencer Schwellenbach and Tanner Bibee, but I don’t know if they have the K upside you are looking for but both are studs. : I guess I shouldn’t say Crochet since he is already a top 5-10 SP this year. |
12:40 |
: How much of PitchCon did you watch? Had to miss Friday so can’t wait for the recording to be posted |
12:40 |
: I haven’t watched much. I will definitely be watching the replays though |
12:40 |
Kristian Campbell, Crochet and Kirby? Im trying to improve my pitching. : 12 team 25 keepers league. I have Mookie and Westburg for 2b. Would you trade Mookie for |
12:40 |
: yes |
12:40 |
Sandy Alcantara coming back from TJ? In a keeper league where guys on your roster that weren’t drafted the previous get their keeper prices set by ADP this year with a cutoff date in mid-March. Smart to lock Alcantara into an early teens keeper price even if this year not fully back to elite level? : Thoughts on |
12:41 |
: I don’t love doing that but I understand wanting to. I just think you give up too much value this year, but if you aren’t competiting this season, I would consider it. |
12:41 |
: You signed off in a earlier trade question of mine with trading Gilbert/Ober to get Tucker. Also been offered same deal for Acuna….Tucker or Acuna? |
12:42 |
: Acuna especially if I can put him on the IL and replace him easily. |
12:42 |
: How much positive regression will there be with the A’s bats in this new park you think? |
12:43 |
: I think it will be a fair amount, but not crazy. My understanding is while this is a minor league park, it was one of the more pitcher friendly ones in the PCL. I would expect it plays more neutrally than people might expect. That being said, going from the worst park in baseball to hit in to a neutral park might be huge for some of their hitters. |
12:43 |
: My last SP keeper is down to Ober or Schwellenbach…thoughts? |
12:43 |
: That is like asking me to choose between children. Schwellenbach |
12:44 |
: Who are some late round bat targets (picks 300-400+) you like in a points league? |
12:45 |
Matt Wallner, Spencer Horwitz, Joey Ortiz, Thairo Estrada, Gavin Lux, Johnny DeLuca, Pavin Smith, Max Kepler, Brooks Lee, Michael Massey. Jose Miranda : |
12:46 |
: Happy Monday! NL only Keeper league for 5X5. Nootbaar and Jesus Sanchez have big upside (Statcast is awash in red aside from Jesus’s whiff rates). Would you trade Christopher Sanchez to acquire both? That would put me over 250 HR’s and 220 SB’s which should be enough to win both categories. With all the pitching to be at the auction table I figure I could replace him with Schwell or someone else. I need another take…. |
12:46 |
: I would be for this deal |
12:46 |
: How bad have Alonso and Boras played this offseason? |
12:47 |
: Pretty terribly. I hope he gets paid, but it is not going to be close to what he thought it would be |
12:47 |
: Any pitchers that changed teams, finished strong, tired down the stretch to suppress overall numbers, or are learning new pitches who could take a leap forward? |
12:47 |
: Ask me next week after I am a week into my pitching projections. |
12:47 |
: Langford is going off this year. |
12:47 |
: I hope you are right |
12:47 |
: Caminero worth keeping for this season at $13? 8 team AL only |
12:47 |
: I think so |
12:48 |
: I feel like 2B in the AL is a relative dumpster fire. Agree or disagree? |
12:48 |
Jonathan India, Kristian Campbell, Michael Massey : It definitely drops off but there are some interesting guys there. Colt Keith, |
12:49 |
: Do any of these catchers get 100 starts behind the plate in Pittsburgh: Bart, Davis,
|
12:49 |
: no |
12:50 |
: Hey Justin! 6th overall pick in draft and hold 5X5. Gunnar went 5th. I want to pick Betts instead of Soto, JRam, Corbin, Tucker. Mistake? |
12:50 |
: I am taking JRam or Soto all day there |
12:51 |
Harry Ford and Blake Mitchell as catching prospects for you believe any will be solid what’s your ranking on them. Could also add Jackson Holliday should I or overhyped : 14 team 25 keeper, I have Henry Davis, |
12:53 |
: I will be real honest and I don’t care much for catching prospects. It is just really hard for them to learn the position and work on their hitting coming up through the minors. Harry Ford looks like he could be a monster but who knows. I like Mitchell buthe is so far away. I think Holliday is fairly hyped right now. I think if anything maybe a little overhyped for fantasy. |
12:53 |
: I know everyone is on butler and Rooker, but I feel like bleday is a sneaky sleeper in deep leagues this year. Thoughts? |
12:54 |
: I agree. I think there is a decent upside there, but a risk he could platoon. Park change might be great for him though. Someone I am looking at late in drafts. |
12:54 |
Jackson Merrill’s walk % has to be a cause for alarm, right? His chase and zone contact % are above average, but what happens if those hits turn into misses and he can’t take a walk? : |
12:55 |
: I think he will be fine. He is a good pure hitter. Needs to be more selective outside the zone but lots of guy make that work. |
12:55 |
: One more move you would like to see the giants make before spring training… Go |
12:55 |
: Alonso |
12:55 |
Bryan Woo and is he a good pickup with his underlying numbers : What round should i draft |
12:56 |
: Woo is a fantastic arm, but I worry about his health. back to back seasons where he missed with forarm/elbow issues. He is on my DND list. |
12:56 |
Kutter Crawford– started out hot last year, wore down as the season went on and wheels flew off towards the end. I’d like to keep as my last pitcher going into Auction. $7 in a keeper AL only 5X5 260 league. Rebound candidate? : |
12:56 |
: Needs to stop throwing in the middle of the zone so much but I am a belivier. |
12:56 |
Jackson Chourio? He’s a stud! : Are people outside of Milwaukee aware of |
12:56 |
: I think fantasy players are but maybe not the general public. Dude is going to be a star |
12:57 |
Josh Lowe. I see downside risk in a platoon. Do you think he can keep his everyday role and return to his 2023 stats? : It seems like people don’t expect a bounce back from |
12:57 |
: Maybe not all the way back, but I think he is a worth gamble because the upside is just so immense and the Rays should give him every shot in a year that they are still reloading in. |
12:57 |
Carson Williams have much fantasy value or is there value primarily tied into their defense? : Do you think Lawlar or |
12:58 |
: I think they have value because of their defense. It keeps them on the field and able to accumulate |
12:58 |
: If Alonso doesn’t return to the Mets, how do you see 1B/3B shaking out? Is Acuna the man? |
12:58 |
: I think that Baty gets first shot at third but Acuna likely takes over at some point. |
12:58 |
Brandon Nimmo is a keeper at $12, no? I feel like I’m overthinking this because of his plantar fascia. : 5×5 Dynasty roto. |
12:58 |
: probably not |
12:59 |
: I’m going to call it now….only because the hype is soooooo huge. Lawrence Butler will be the biggest bust in baseball this year, based on adp |
12:59 |
: Nooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo |
12:59 |
: In a 16 tm 7×7 with Saves and Holds, does the move to the Dodgers help or hurt
|
12:59 |
: With holds too, probably helps |
12:59 |
: Keep, Trade, Drop at SS
|
1:00 |
: Toss up between Jett and Young, but I lean keeping Jett |
1:01 |
: That is all the time I have today. please follow me on all my social media’s (twitter, tiktok, facebook, youtube, bluesky, and instagram) at JustinMasonFWFB! I am doing regular podcasts on the FWFB podcast as well as three episodes a week for the Sleeper and the Bust so definitely make sure you are subscribed there as well! |
Justin is the co-host on The Sleeper and The Bust Podcast and writes for Rotographs covering the Roto Riteup as well as other periodic articles. In addition to his work at Rotographs, Justin is the lead fantasy writer/analyst and co-owner for FriendswithFantasyBenefits.com, and the owner of The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational. He is also a certified addiction treatment counselor. Follow Justin on Twitter @JustinMasonFWFB.
Hoping for Colt Keith progress as well since I have him on a couple of teams, but you have to squint kind of hard to see a “ton” of power in that 23rd percentile EV, 22nd percentile hard hit, 25th percentile barrel and 39th percentile bat speed (not to mention Comerica’s 84 park factor for lefty HR).