Justin Mason’s Baseball Chat – December 12th, 2022

Justin Mason: Will start shortly. Just waiting on a few more questions! Don’t be shy!

Justin Mason: Only have a few questions submitted thus far. Hopefully we get more. In the meantime, follow me on Twitter, Facebook, TikTok, YouTube and Twitch at JustinMasonFWFB.

jspencer: Hi Justin, Thanks for the chat. The Dodgers seem to be sitting out this FA season. Are their prospects that good? Which ones should we be paying attention to later in a draft?

Justin Mason: I have been surprised by their inactivity on the market. Maybe they just prefer not to spend the high dollar amounts right now, but it seems crazy to not capitalize on their amazing regular season from last year. I can’t imagine they plan on going into 2023 with their current roster especially with the Padres improving.

jj: SF and LAD have to do something this offseason right?

Justin Mason: SF has tried to make waves, but I am not surprised they haven’t gotten more free agents to sign there. It is a bad hitter’s park and the team is not very good in general. They will likely add a couple more minor pieces, but I think they have a long term plan in place to rebuild the farm system and they shouldn’t abandon that with how good the Dodgers and Padres are and with the Diamondbacks on the rise.

Scotty: Hello Mr. Mason, 12 team H2H OBP/QS league with 18 keepers. I’m stuck between keeping 1 of Ketel Marte, Josh Bell, or Jon Gray. Team is mostly well balanced so no dire needs. Do you have any thoughts?

Justin Mason: I think it is between Bell and Gray for me. Marte just is struggling to stay healthy. I probably lean Bell because of his ability to walk and I really like the fit in Cleveland.

Matt: How do you see the Giants rotation shaking out? If they sign Rodon too, who do you think is getting bumped/moved? (I’ve got the Cobb & Wood duo in a couple of leagues).

Justin Mason: I would honestly be very surprised if they resigned Rodon TBH. I think this is the five they enter the season with now that they have added Manaea. Maybe they add a cheap swingman. If they do add another big piece like Rodon, I think Disco is the odd man out for now, but considering the age and health of this rotation, it will likely work itself out on it’s own

jj: How does STL deal with 4 SP leaving after 2023?  They don’t seem like a team to go all in on a guy like Rodon, but it might be worth it if they think they are not going to extend Mikolas or Flaherty right?

Justin Mason: I think they will likely resign one if not both of those guys. However, if they don’t the Cardinals are magicians at getting something out of nothing. There has been talk that they are in on Rodon, so that could help solve the long term issue.

jj: I feel the Cubs are better off trying to get more SP than a $250mil SS right? someone who can go deeper than 5IP?

Justin Mason: I think they would actually benefit from adding as much talent as possible anywhere, but it begs the question: why would they spend so much on a big free agent and not resign all those guys they let go for next to nothing? I don’t know if they know what they are doing.

Guest: Justin – Say you had Bo Bichette in a 30-team dynasty league with full minors. What would you be looking for as a return if you were a team that wasn’t in contention until 2024 at the earliest?

Justin Mason: Hmmm… Feels like someone from the league is baiting me.

Justin Mason: I would want a haul for him because he would be an easy resign in a league like this.

Paddy: Abrams was the most exciting prospect coming out of spring training and then laid an egg. Are you throwing out the year (inconsistent playing time, team change) or did it raise real concerns?

Justin Mason: I definitely am not giving up hope on him at all. He actually had nice zone contact numbers and there’s definitely enough power to play and a lot of speed. The price is going up (as I wrote in my article from this morning), but I still think it is a worthy gamble. He should play everyday on a bad Nationals team and it is a good park. High risk/high reward.

joe: Do the White Sox think they are good enough or are they just waiting for mid-tier (cost) players go start moving before finding a 2B and OF/DH?

Justin Mason: I think they will add someone. Maybe a Segura, Benintendi, or a Conforto. They definitely can’t go into the season with the current outfield. They may go cheap though under the belief that some positive regression and a weak division means they don’t have to overdo it.

Pete: Does Pham get a contract. He seems like he would end up in Asia and do really well there.

Justin Mason: I think he will get a deal somewhere. Too many teams need outfielder and he is good when he is on the field. I would be surprised if he doesn’t get a job.

Justin Mason: Maybe the White Sox would be a good landing spot for Pham?

Guest: How likely is bubba Thompson going to be getting regular ab’s, if texas doesn’t procure another outfielder

Justin Mason: I think he will get a shot, but how long can he keep it with those awful plate skills?

jose: Abreu is going to be missed on the South Side, but don’t they need some pitching? Too bad Rodon has priced himself out of a reunion.

Justin Mason: Considering they didn’t even try to resign Rodon after 2021, I don’t think he would be interested in a reunion.

seth: any preference among the cup-of-coffee corner infielders that came up last year, Miranda, Jung, M Vargas, Pratto, Pasquatino? Any of them crack the top 10 at their position next year?

Justin Mason: Man, I really like all of these guys. I probably like Pratto the least and Vargas may have playing time issues with the Dodgers bring back Turner, but I will be drafting all of them in various drafts this year.

Al: 5×5 OBP / QS, would you keep Strider over Vinnie P?  Cost would be dirt cheap for both.

Justin Mason: Wish you could keep both, but I lean strider here.

Simione: What do you make of Alcantara’s ADP? I feel like it’s currently dangerous to draft him where he is going since he relies heavily on volume for strikeouts.

Justin Mason: I have no issue with it Mikey. He is a horse and I love getting innings. Got to pair him with a guy that has K upside, but that is fine with me.

Guest: Do you expect cost of living has anything to do with San Francisco or just purely those baseball reasons for not being able to sign anyone major?

Justin Mason: I am sure the high tax rates have something to do with it for certain guys, but I think the bigger issue is that is a bad landing spot for hitters.

thom: Do you think the fluidity of TBR’s Rotation/Bullpen factor into Jeffrey Springs holding a relatively low ADP thus far?

Justin Mason: I think it is more about the depth of the SP pool this year. He has over a 100 pick gap between his min pick and max pick. Going around guys like Luis Garcia, Sale, McCullers, and Montgomery. Those are good names to be mixed in with

Mets fan: How much do you think Justin Turner has left in the tank? Seems like an interesting idea for the Mets if they were to trade Escobar.

Justin Mason: He was pretty good from July on, hitting .314/.412/.514 with seven home runs and 40 RBIs in 243 plate appearances. I think he probably resigns in LA, but a lot of teams could use him depending on the price. The Mets have options even if they move Escobar, so I don’t know if that makes a ton of sense.

Manaea: I was dropping Sean Manaea in my 10-tm keeper until he signed with SF. Now, I feel like he could be a good guy to take a flier on. Do you have any thoughts on how much the move helps him?

Justin Mason: There aren’t a lot of organizations that I trust more with pitching than the Giants so he definitely gets a bump for me. in a 10-teamer he would be very borderline depending on my other keepers.

Pena: What would you think J. Pena

Justin Mason: His price is rising after a big postseason (wrote him up this morning in my ADP market report), but I am a bit skeptical that he improves a ton on what he did in 2022. Lower than ideal launch angle and doesn’t hit the ball particularly hard. I think he is what we saw last season which is fine.

Buff: NL only keeper, Dylan Carlson or Vaughn Grissom. Is it close?

Justin Mason: I am going Grissom here and it isn’t that close for me but I have been a long time Carlson detractor.

jerry caree: Do you think A. Vaughn is undervalued rn because of his late season slump, or is there something pressing in his profile that people are keying on?

Justin Mason: I don’t think he is being undervalued right now. He is going a few picks behind Stanton and Giolito. I like Vaughn a lot for this year, but if his price rises, I might pass.

Franmil: Horrible season last year, but someone should pick me up on the cheap right?  Not sure why the Cubs let me go,they need high upside guys like me

Justin Mason: Probably will get a deal somewhere, but it wouldn’t surprise me if Franmil took a deal in Korea or Japan if there isn’t the kind of interest he wants. The market for power only DH’s isn’t what it used to be.

TC: In a crazy-deep keeper league (24 teams, 40-man rosters) I can keep 2 of the following:  Nootbaar, Nolan Jones, Segura, Josh Winder, Bailey Ober.  Who would you pick?  I’m leaning toward Noot an NoJo (esp after the park-move to COL)

Justin Mason: I think I would lean Segura and Nootbaar, but I also am very interested in Ober this year. Roster resource doesn’t even project Jones to break camp and I think that may be right.

Alex: Hey Justin. First time caller, long time reader. How would you simulate the decisionmaking of a situation like Aaron Judge taking less money to stay with the Yankees vs. the dump truck of money the Padres (and maybe the Giants) offered if you are running a complex and incredibly detailed fantasy league? Asking for a friend.

Justin Mason: See, now my league mates are trolling me a bit here. You have to factor in the high California tax rates and the money a guy like Judge can make on his celebrity in the NY media market.

frosted lucky chakes theyre all mine: where do you see Yoshida settling in ADP?

Justin Mason: Around 100-130ish.

Baseball fan: Who says no: Dylan Cease and Luis Robert for Sandy Alcantara

Justin Mason: The White Sox

Justin: What’re you expectations for Chris Bassitt? Also, where do you rank Lodolo?

Justin Mason: I really like Bassitt, but I really want to see where he ends up because park and team will move his value a ton. I have Lodolo at SP 69 (nice). Am worried about the park and lack of win potential on a bad Reds teams

Guest: Wander Franco was rated a 80FV when he came up-can’t miss Stud.  I recently saw comps to Jeff McNeil and below league average grades in many categories.  Seems like he is flat lining already.  Where’s he going in drafts?

Justin Mason: Another guy I wrote up today. He is still a top 100 pick but dropping a little bit. I faded him last year, but this year, I do not mind the price. While the power hasn’t shown fully yet, he does hit the ball hard and just needs to raise the launch angle. More importantly, he has amazing contact skills, like top 5 in baseball. An extremely safe floor with a very nice ceiling. I here for it.

Gunny Highway: Even though we’ve not seen contracts yet, I believe Dansby to be a better value production wise dollar for dollar than Correa. Am I all wet?

Justin Mason: I agree with you. Correa is a great talent, but has a spotty injury history. I wouldn’t want that long term deal. What the Twins did with Correa was perfect last season. I think Correa gets his bag though.

Lawrence: Do left handed batters become more valuable now with the shift ban?  Have to assume a nice bump in BA no?

Justin Mason: I think they definitely get some help, but not as much as people are making it out to be. Teams can still shift, just not as drastically. Pitchers will also adjust. I also think anyone who tells you they know how this will play out is lying to you or a fool. We have no idea the degree to what this changes the game for real baseball or fantasy.

Ms. M: Why do you hate the San Francisco Giants, and is your wife aware? Would that be grounds for a divorce in California?

Justin Mason: Oh look… my wife has entered the chat…

Justin Mason: I love the Giants but I am also honest about their short comings. I think you would appreciate that considering how you talk about me…

thom: Do you have faith in Yasmani Grandal turning it around and finishing as a top 10 C in 2023?

Justin Mason: Top 10 is rough considering how good the catcher pool has become. However, I think he can’t be worse, but it is more blind faith than backed up by numbers or by what I have seen on the field.

Hoyer defender: Doesn’t know what he’s doing? Bryant, Rizzo and Baez all signed for less money with other clubs than what the Cubs offered before they traded them. Ask the Rockies and Tigers hw that worked out for them.

Justin Mason: Little early to take that victory lap, but you could be right.

Bill: What do you expect the opening day Brewers OF to look like?

Justin Mason: Yelich, Taylor, and Mitchell with Winker mostly DHing. I do think there young guys are up at some point though, but Weimer, Frelick, and Lutz are all not on the 40-man so I don’t know how quickly they come up.

Matt: More of a generic auction/keeper strategy …I’m re-evaluating my approach … if you have no limit on ## of keepers, are you only looking at keeping players who represent HUGE discounts, or would you take other players who show just slight savings, too?

Justin Mason: Ultimately it depends on your league dynamics. Do the huge discounts throw the inflation rate out of whack? The guys that are slight discounts may be bigger discounts when you take the huge discounts out of the pool. If the slight discount guys are guys your really like or love, keep them so you don’t risk missing out.

Barry: Do you think the reds should try Tejay Antone out as a starter again assuming he comes into spring training healthy. He had some serious helium coming into 2021 thanks to the velo bump but never got a shot due to the reds bullpen being a full blown committee

Justin Mason: I think they should stretch him out at some point, but they may want to be careful with him initially.

Sox fan: Who is a good comp for Yoshida? I’ve seen Jeff McNeil suggested, which is…underwhelming…

Justin Mason: Tim McLeod is my guy for Japanese and Korean imports. I think he said 20/10 with a high OBP. So, maybe like teammate Alex Verdugo?

Zach: How do you think the Jays catching situation shakes out? If you were Ross Atkins, who would you trade and who would you keep?

Justin Mason: It feels like Jansen is always the guys in rumors. I think the Blue Jays would prefer to move Kirk, but his defense makes him less valuable on the market. In the end, I wonder if any of them gets moved.

Josh: Michael Harris had a 238/284/365 slash line with 2 home runs against lefties last year…is it possible he ends up in a platoon situation next season? I have him in 4 of my 5 leagues

Justin Mason: I don’t think so considering the contract they just gave him.

Jeff: Is america ready for Jordan Montgomery to flourish now that he’s a Cardinal for a full year?

Justin Mason: I am! I have faded Montgomery for years, but I now may be his biggest fan in the industry!

Whaleoil: Jorge Mateo, Bal.  Last year was the first time Jorge got some run.  SB’s and pop.  Do you think he O’s have something here?

Justin Mason: I think he fills the role until the plate skills kill him. So as long as they don’t sign a big name, I think he plays a bunch.

Pops: Leclerc going to close for the rangers this year?

Justin Mason: I think he will get a shot, but I don’t feel confident he holds it.

Nervous for Mervis: Will the Mashing Mervis hit big league pitching or is he just picking on the youngsters down in the sticks?

Justin Mason: I was pretty impressed with him at the AFL. I hope he is as good as he looked, but big league pitching is much harder than what he has seen and the price is getting more and more expensive.

Pat Listachio: I have the #3 pick in a dynasty! Assuming Julio and Soto are gone… am I crazy to be tempted by Tatis? Who would you take there?

Justin Mason: I do not think you are crazy. I would probably go JRam or Turner because I am always trying to win now, but Acuna and Tatis should be in the discussion.

Justin Mason: Go with the player you want to watch for the next decade. If that is Tatis, then do it!

Electrician: What kind of deal do you see Matt Carpenter getting?

Justin Mason: I assume a 1-year with a mutual option. There will be a team that needs a utility guy or veteran clubhouse guy, but it is hard to see where until we see where the other free agents land.

Ms. M: How dare you!

Justin Mason: Easily

Insert Witty Name Here: If you were a free agent, what would be most important to you? Money, winning team, playing time, city, etc?

Justin Mason: I think it usually comes down to money. Older guys that have been paid typically care more about the other stuff or if a player is getting a huge bag anywhere.

TC: Are either of Ha-Seong Kim 김하성 or Luis Rengifo everyday players next year?  Looks like Kim probably plays 2B everyday, but how confident are you of that?

Justin Mason: I feel pretty confident Kim starts the year playing every day. Once Tatis comes back, he will need to hit, but he should still play. Rengifo should play too as things stand with the Angels, but I feel less confident in him

Maris: Points league…is there a huge difference between Clase and J Doran? Both are holdovers — Clase is 12 bucks, Doran 1.

Justin Mason: I think there is a pretty big difference there. Duran may not be the closer. I recommend running your point system through our auction calculator and seeing what it says.

Justin: Bassitt or Senga?

Justin Mason: Super close, but I lean Bassitt right now. A bad landing spot could change that. I will have my projections on Senga done today, so that might change it too.

Beendare donedat: Last year we heard how S Espinal Tor was a gym rat in the offseason but only hit 7HRS and was no shakes on the bases.  Utility guy now?

Justin Mason: I think so.

Maris: Do you think Baty will make the opening day lineup?

Justin Mason: Seems unlikely unless he crushes in spring.

Justin Mason: I do think he is up early though.

Maris: Straight points league. I have Jazz Chisolm for 2 bucks in option year. He’s been injured every year. How long would you stretch his contract? Thanks

Justin Mason: I hate long terming guys with injury woes, so no.

The Glob: In an auction, how would you handle the glob of SPs from 30-60? I think I’m going to wait and take whoever is left at the end with $2 bids

Justin Mason: I like this approach. I think I would just try and play in the shallow end

Nelly: Pick one… Oneil Cruz or Elly De La Cruz

Justin Mason: Oneil

Ms. M: What has been your favorite deal so far during the off-season?

Justin Mason: Probably the Willson Contreras deal. Take your rivals best player and fill your biggest need. Great move by the Cardinals.

Bob OdenKirk: What do you think your strengths are as a fantasy analyst and player? Weaknesses?

Justin Mason: I think my greatest strength is also my greatest weakness. I can be influenced by others. Sometimes that benefits me and sometimes I don’t trust myself enough. I think there are a lot of great analysts out there and I love to read and listen to them to help me shape what I think which you should do, but you shouldn’t let the market dictate your decisions.

Justin Mason: Thank you all for chatting with me!

Justin Mason: Please follow me on Twitter, Facebook, TikTok, YouTube and Twitch at JustinMasonFWFB and subscribe to my podcast The Sleeper and the Bust, FWFB, and TGFBI. I will see you all next week!