Justin Mason Baseball Chat – July 10th, 2018

Here is the transcript from my chat. Lots of keeper and dynasty questions today:

9:00
Justin Mason: Been up all night! Let’s go! Let’s have a great chat today! Just a reminder that I will answer as many questions as I can, but please don’t repeat questions. If I can’t get to your questions then hit me up on facebook at https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100008744507752 or on twitter @justinmasonfwfb.

9:00
Vic: How confident are you that T. Hildenberger secures the closer job for the Twinkies next year?

9:01
Justin Mason: Not confident at all. They went out this off season and grabbed two guys in free agency. What’s to think they won’t do that again?

9:01
Vic: Does Bradley Zimmer continue to disappoint like Buxton?

9:01
Justin Mason: I think it is a bit early to call that one. I still believe in Zimmer long term.

9:01
Ichiro: Feelings on Enyel De Los Santos..? Will be up for awhile and worth an add in a keeper dynasty?

9:02
Justin Mason: I think he could struggle and get sent back down. Has given up 10 homers in his last 10 starts in AAA.

9:02
Rasta: For 2019 and 2020 only, would you rather have Nimmo or Baby Vlad?

9:02
Justin Mason: Vlad

9:02
Dan: Forrest Whitley, Walker Buehler and Jack Flaherty for Nola. Who wins that trade in dynasty?

9:03
Justin Mason: Depends on what you need. If you are going for it now, Nola is already a stud. Long term, its the trio and it’s not close.

9:03
Ben: Thoughts on Mahle going forward?  Is he a must own in a 12 team H2H?  Thank you

9:03
Justin Mason: I think he is a mid rotation starter. Not a must own in 12-teamers.

9:03
June: 12 team saves and holds league, doing well in both categories but looking for ratio help. Yates, Boxberger, W. Smith, Minter, and Osuna on the wire.  Have Knebel, Dominguez, Green, Devenski, Kela, and Rodon.  Make any changes?

9:04
Justin Mason: I am grabbing Osuna and Yates for Green and Rodon.

9:04
Justin Mason: Sorry, not Rodon. Drop Dominguez

9:04
Vic: Should Derek Rodriguez be owned in a 15 Team mixed?

9:05
Justin Mason: Yes, as long as he has a rotation spot in SF

9:05
Bob: Is Whitley a future #1 starter?

9:05
Justin Mason: I think he has that upside for sure

9:05
John: Can you make me feel better about Buxton? I have invested numerous years in him as a keeper and he kills my soul.

9:06
Justin Mason: The talent is there, but sometimes it takes a while for it to show through. Look at Aaron Hicks. He was the Buxton of the Twins org before Buxton.

9:06
Chuck: Where do you see Luke Weaver headed into next year in a keeper format?  Is top 25 too high?

9:06
Justin Mason: Yeah, that’s too high. I would say top 40

9:06
Bob: Thoughts on Jack Flaherty this year and in future?

9:07
Justin Mason: Love Flaherty long term, but for this year, I don’t know that he puts it together and takes the next step. Still a top 40 guy for me though now.

9:07
johnnyairport: Still think Beede is going to be better than Suarez this year? Let’s hit up a Giants game this year, bleacher seats of course

9:08
Justin Mason: I would love to hit up a game! Don’t know when my next chance will be. I don’t think Beede will be better than Suarez this year.

9:08
CT: Thoughts on R. Cano in 12tm mixed after activation next month? That is, if he can find a spot to play…

9:08
Justin Mason: They will find him a role. Should be mixed relevant.

9:08
Matt: 12-Team Roto Dynasty. I’m trying to go for it, and need Ks. What are your thoughts on a $6 Conforto for a $4 J Gray? Conforto goes to $8 next year, then doubles, so its essentially make-or-break time, and Gray’s contract is one year ahead ($6, $8, $16). Is that a smart move on my part? Should the other guy entertain this offer?

9:09
Justin Mason: I think it is a fair gamble. Both are high risk/high reward. If you need the pitching take the chance.

9:09
FinkleIsEinhorn: 12 team H2H Points Dynasty League.
We start playoffs early (second week of August) so I’m really focused on my SPs (start 7) for the stretch run.
How would you feel with this rotation: Greinke, Bauer, Morton, Corbin, Mikolas, Richards, Fulmer, Hill, Gibson, Skaggs, Musgrove, Shark, Minor, Jon Gray, Jimmy Nelson?

9:10
Justin Mason: I would love to package something together to get one more elite starter if I could. Maybe like a Greinke and Musgrave for a Nola or something in that neighborhood. Some of those guys scare me (i.e. Corbin, Hill, Musgroveetc.)

9:10
Joe Joe: 10tm H2H 15 keep forever, 6×6 w/ OBP & SLG. Pitching cats are K/9, K/BB. Guy me Lindor and Springer for my Bryant, Schwarber and Nola. Too much right. Was thinking of countering with McCullers instead of Nola.

9:11
Justin Mason: Feels a bit rich

9:11
Dwight: You holding Pivetta in (deep) 10 tm? Or is it safer to stream that spot

9:11
Justin Mason: I am holding.

9:11
Me: Any second half bounceback candidates you like?

9:12
Justin Mason: Piscotty, Polanco, Dozier, Bryant, Ozuna, Robbie Ray, Wil Myers

9:13
Bob: Is Buehler a frontline starter dynasty wise?

9:13
Justin Mason: Not yet, but soon.

9:13
John: How does the injury to Victor Robles change his short term/long term outlook? Nats outfield looks crowded

9:13
Justin Mason: I think he could get moved as part of a trade. Long term he will be fine. Needs a change of scenery for this year however.

9:14
Greg: After a few down seasons I started a full rebuild last year in a 16-team OPS, Keep Forever dynasty.  I am ready to compete next year but need to figure out my outfield situation. I have acquired Acuna, Juan Soto, and Stanton in the rebuild to add to Judge and Kyle Tucker.  I cant take up 5 of my 12 keeper spots on outfielders.  Who gets moved for upgrades elsewhere?

9:15
Justin Mason: I think I am moving Soto or Tucker. Both at the height of their values so you should be able to get a lot for them in a dynasty league.

9:15
Hobbs: Thoughts on Stripling? I’m in 1st right now in 12tm roto dynasty. Would you move L. Castillo and D. German or Loasigia for Stripling?

9:15
Justin Mason: I would move all of them for stripling right now.

9:15
John: Mitch Keller up this year? If so, what can we expect?

9:16
Justin Mason: I don’t think he is up before September. The Pirates are falling out of it and they won’t want to start any clocks.

9:16
Sonny: Nimmo controllable through 2019 or Aaron Hicks rental? In 1st place and trying to lock down trophy

9:17
Justin Mason: Depends on depth of league. Deeper league I lean Nimmo because of health. Shallower format, I want hicks for upside and team around him.

9:17
Rasta: How viable is Brandon Crawford in a 12 teamer with no MI?

9:17
Justin Mason: Not super long term. He has been great, but also getting super lucky. Should regress in the second half.

9:17
Orange: Good morning Justin. I just traded for Dozier, hoping for some (more) 2nd half magic. Are you confident in his ability to have a strong ROS?

9:18
Justin Mason: I am, especially if he gets moved to the loser of the Machado sweepstakes. Would look great in MLW or NYY

9:18
Dylan: Bieber/Weaver for Stras in a QS keeper league, which side you got?

9:18
Justin Mason: Stras

9:18
Matt D: Chase Anderson’s comical combo of 2.14 WHIP and 0 ERA last night vs. Miami has me dying to know what to expect the rest of the year.

9:18
Justin Mason: Moments of magic and moments of pure evil

9:18
Matt: 12-Team Mandatory keep 4, H2H 6×6. I recently traded Harper for J Ramirez (have him at 2B, and have Suarez at 3B). I have Albies, Guriel, M Chapman to fill 2 Util spots. Do you trade Albies (plus a late round pick) for T Turner? I do need some steals…

9:18
Justin Mason: I am pod with that.

9:19
Justin Mason: ok

9:19
Ichiro: How do you see Francisco Mejia panning out? Traded away by Indians since he doesn’t want to play OF and they don’t have room for him at C? You believe in the hype?

9:19
Justin Mason: I do not. He is the reason why you should not read as much into traditional prospect scouting. His bat doesn’t play anywhere but catcher in fantasy and I don’t think he sticks there.

9:19
John: Are Trevor Story’s speed and avg going to stay? He is a potential monster if so…

9:20
Justin Mason: No reason to think they can’t. As long as he doesn’t hit below the Mendoza line or get hurt, he’s playing

9:20
Orange: Is Derek “skinny” Rodriguez  worth holding on to in 16-t league? I’m not really buying him…

9:20
Justin Mason: I think long term, he is a reliever, but right now he has a rotation spot in the biggest park in baseball with a great defense behind him.

9:21
Finding Nimmo: Who is the real Nimmo? Somewhere between the insane hot streak and this slump?

9:21
Justin Mason: Definitely in between. I think the power was a fluke, but he should hit for average and enough power to be interesting. It is all about playing time. Will he continue to get full time ABs when the Mets are healthy? Don’t trust the Mets. Ever.

9:22
Rod Beck: Is Victor Arano the guy to own in terms of a long term closer for the Phillies?

9:22
Justin Mason: I don’t think Gabe Kapler believes in a long term closer

9:22
Matt: What are your thoughts on Tyler Anderson? K% in line with previous years…Home/Road splits seem to indicate the Coors effect. Has shown potential in last two season…he worth a shot?

9:22
Justin Mason: More of a streamer because of Coors.

9:22
Don: My deGrom for his Freeman in a 15-team mixed league – comparable value?  I lead in ERA, but I’m near the bottom in RBI and behind in BA with opportunity to make up ground.

9:22
Justin Mason: Yeah, I am fine with that.

9:22
Kevin: Would you trade for Robbie Ray as a buy low? Or are you staying away from his HR/FB and BB%

9:23
Justin Mason: I am a sucker for his upside. I may end up dying on that hill, but I would buy

9:23
New Bork: Would you trade Nola for Stanton straight-up in a keeper league with standard stats and no price tag on either?

9:23
Justin Mason: sure

9:23
Don’tBeAHader: At this point in the year, are guys like Bour, Duvall, Winker, H.Perez, Hanson, K.Morales rosterable in 14 team mixers, or just hot streak guys?

9:23
Justin Mason: I buy Hanson, Winker, Bour

9:24
Scurvy Seadog: Is Gregory Polanco finally worth starting again? .447 OBP and .657 over the last 30 days.

9:24
Justin Mason: Ride the hot streak. I will always fall for him.

9:24
John: How in the world is Nick Markakis doing this?

9:24
Justin Mason: Something in the water in Atlanta?

9:24
Rasta: Wow Justin Mason predicting Byron Buxton gets traded to NYY for Austin Romine

9:24
Justin Mason: Looooooool

9:24
D Money: Would you be trying to move Edwin Diaz if you’re out of it for this year in a 20 team keeper? Is he worth a top 20 prospect?

9:25
Justin Mason: Depends on the prospect. I am always willing to move a closer in dynasty, but he has been a top 10 pitcher this year. Not relief pitcher. Top 10 Pitcher. Top 20 player. It would take more than most top 20 prospects for me.

9:25
Ham Porter: Already thinking about keepers for next year; In a 2 pitcher keeper max league I want to keep DeGrom and Bauer, but I also have Carrasco, Ray, Cueto, Corbin and Porcello. Tell me I’m right.

9:25
Justin Mason: You are right.

9:26
D Money: What are your long-term thoughts on Jesus Luzardo?

9:26
Justin Mason: Love him long term. Great park. Gets whiffs. Most importantly, plus command. I think he is one of the safer pitching prospects in the game.

9:27
Me: Hey Justin. Can you name a few outfielders I should target in return for Archer?

9:28
Justin Mason: Mazara, Haniger, Cain

9:28
Ichiro: Received Jon Gray for Weaver in a keeper…I did well?

9:28
Justin Mason: No

9:28
Chris: Think the Orioles trade Gausman? Always liked his stuff maybe a change of scenery unlocks his potential like arieta

9:28
Justin Mason: I don’t think they do. I wish they would lol

9:29
brood550: Has it hit Midnight on Tyson’s Ross’ season?  He sure appears to be turning orange….

9:29
Justin Mason: Yeah, I jumped off that train early.

9:29
Kevin: Rest of year, who do you like better: Billy Hamilton or The Dentist? Somebody let Hamilton go to free agency, and I’m reaping the benefits, but I don’t think I need both.

9:29
Justin Mason: Hamilton. He can be a real difference maker.

9:30
Jonny: Would you trade for James Paxton with a package that includes Rhys Hoskins and an RP?

9:30
Justin Mason: It better be a good RP.

9:30
Rocco: What do you expect from Kris Bryant when he comes back?  Think the rest of the shoulder will enable him to be his old self?

9:30
Justin Mason: I would hope so. I think the fact he didn’t go straight to the DL says that this was more precautionary than anything else.

9:31
HappyFunBall: Speaking of Buxton … have a hard choice with DeJong off the DL and needing to be activated (Other SS are Chris Taylor and Kike).  My MiLB reserve is full (Calhoun, Robles, Tatis, Whitely, … Jon Gray).  Who goes?

9:31
Justin Mason: Kike

9:31
June: Sorry typo, Rondon not Rodon

9:31
Justin Mason: That’s what I figured and why I changed it.

9:31
Chris: You think the brewers go all in and get Machado?

9:32
Justin Mason: I do not. I think they have more pressing issues in the rotation they will address.

9:32
Deacon: Better second half for a 10tm points league, Desmond or Nimmo?

9:32
Justin Mason: Depends on whether there are negatives for Ks, but leaning Desmond.

9:32
Cory: Looking to build for next year in a keeper league, I can keep two of these:  Kluber, Donaldson, Ozuna.

9:32
Justin Mason: Kluber and Donaldsson

9:33
John: How much growth is there in Moncada looking down the road a couple seasons? 20/20 seems very realistic as a base, but could he bump those up? Average ever going to get above .250?

9:33
Justin Mason: I think he could bump up on the power as he gets older, but speed will likely come down too. Average is not going to be a plus, but he does know how to take a walk.

9:34
Bill: Good candidates for cheap saves ROS?

9:34
Justin Mason: Hildenberger, Givens, Trivino, Hughes,

9:34
Richard: In a 12-team AL-only that rewards saves+holds, do you prefer Lou Trivino or Diego Castillo ROS?

9:35
Justin Mason: TRivino

9:35
Jack Bauer: J Gray or Quintana in 12 team dynasty?

9:35
Justin Mason: Quintana

9:35
Rasta: Speaking of a Dozier bounceback, in 1st place in a 10 tm weekly H2H. 2B is Dozier. Sit tight or trade a late pick for a guy like Lowrie?

9:35
Justin Mason: Sit

9:36
Lonny: Should I trade Rhys Hoskins for Nelson Cruz?

9:36
Justin Mason: sure

9:36
Justin Mason: only in redraft though

9:36
Rasta: If you had your pick of the two but had to make the trade today, would you prefer MadBum or Thor?

9:36
Justin Mason: Thor

9:36
Rocco: Can I drop Peraza if I need a bench spot?   Or will I regret it?

9:36
Justin Mason: nah, go ahead

9:36
Justin Mason: I just traded him away ion a dynasty league.

9:37
Nathan: What kind of matchup is Stroman @ ATL tonight? He’s been  very good and very bad since coming off the DL.

9:37
Justin Mason: Don’t love the park or going up against the Braves. I would fade.

9:37
Billy Hamilton: Am I back on track (relatively speaking)?

9:37
Justin Mason: I think you are getting there.

9:37
Bill: If Syndergaard comes back healthy and pitches well is it wise to try and sell him in a dynasty format? Concern is that injuries only get worse with age

9:37
Justin Mason: Only if you can get full value. Upside is too great.

9:37
Jay: In need of Wins, should I drop Tanner Roark for Jordan Zimmerman?

9:38
Justin Mason: No thanks.

9:38
Rocco: What should I expect in return for Soto in a trade in a 12 Team – keeper league?   Top 40 overall player reasonable to ask?

9:38
Justin Mason: I think that is the minimum you should take

9:38
Break: Devers has been disappointing. Only 21 though. Bright future still?

9:38
Justin Mason: Yes, but I think he moves to first at some point and that hurts his long term value.

9:38
Andrew: I got somebody interested in Hendricks in a dynasty league. What kind of return should I look for? I’m in a rebuilding year.

9:38
Justin Mason: A top 50-75 prospect.

9:39
Wes : Help!

9:39
Justin Mason: Sorry, I can’t swim

9:39
Cory: Do you believe Sano will ever pan out?  Target in a keeper league, maybe over Greg Bird?

9:39
Justin Mason: I do. I was surprised the Twins sent him down at all much less to A ball. This was a wake up call for him.

9:40
Justin Mason: And I am not a Bird guy, so that is not close for me.

9:40
Alan: Is Francisco Mejia worth picking up now for ROS?

9:40
Justin Mason: nope

9:40
Bill: Luke Weaver for Robbie Ray in dynasty?

9:40
Justin Mason: Give me Ray.

9:40
Jeffe: is jake lamb droppable in a 10 team?

9:40
Justin Mason: yes

9:40
LARRY: I believe in Hoskins, but are you willing to trade him for a top 20 SP?

9:40
Justin Mason: sure

9:40
Justin: 16 team league, each team keeps 12.  Is Winker worth trading for as a rebuilding squad?

9:40
Justin Mason: I don’t think he is a special [player to build around. Think Melky Cabrera.

9:40
Minter is Coming: Would you drop Chris Taylor for Kyle Tucker?

9:41
Justin Mason: sure

9:41
Dan: What level of pitcher should I be aiming for if I’m trading Gleyber Torres? I tried the big boys and recently had offers for clevinger or mccullers rejected. Alex wood?

9:42
Justin Mason: I like Wood a lot, so I would do that, but I think you might be able to get more. Stripling, Bauer, Berrios, Morton?

9:42
Wes : Drop Castillo for Tanaka coming off DL???

9:42
Justin Mason: nah

9:42
Stevie: Are you moving a keepable Gleyber for Machado (can’t be kept) as a last ditch effort to reach the playoffs?

9:42
Justin Mason: sure

9:42
BobP: Sent Correa and Robbie Ray for McCullers Yelich and Swanson in 12-team auction keeper league – whatcha think?

9:43
Justin Mason: Feel like you could have gotten more but if you need the pitching, then I understand.

9:43
Ralph: Blackmon… just 94 wRC+ at home this year, after posting 185 wRC+ there last year.  Second half surge possible?

9:43
Justin Mason: Yeah, I think he will be better in the second half.

9:43
Bill: Does Luzardo see the majors before 2019 ASG?

9:43
Justin Mason: I think he could

9:43
Wes : Drop Eric Hosmer for Bauers or Kendrys Morales? 12 TM, OPS league.

9:43
Justin Mason: nah

9:43
Jeffe: Do you think my Corey Seager could be moved at the end of the season for one of Snell, McCullers, or Bauer?

9:44
Justin Mason: yeah, I do and I would.

9:44
BobP: start moncada over swanson in points league?

9:44
Justin Mason: easily.

9:44
BobP: what middle infielders should i target in return for Tommy Pham?

9:44
Justin Mason: Cesar Hernandez, Story, Gennett, Gordon

9:44
Nope: Hamilton or Deshields in OBP? Does it make a difference in your response?

9:45
Justin Mason: Hamilton for me. screw OBP, you are rostering those guys for upside in steals and that’s Hamilton.

9:45
American Psycho: My J Upton for his Tatis Jr. and Kyle Tucker in 12 team dynasty 6×6 with OBP and SLG. He needs outfield help and has 7 SS. I need a SS. Win-win?

9:45
Justin Mason: sure

9:45
Chris: Jake Faria worth a look when he’s finished his rehab assignment?

9:45
Justin Mason: definitely

9:45
Vegan Man!: Have to drop someone today to activate Tanaka in a 12 team roto (QS) – Price, Villar, Yonder, Dietrich? Thank you!

9:46
Justin Mason: dietrich

9:46
Fault: Bryant + Yelich for Trout

9:46
Justin Mason: Trout!

9:46
Vegan Man!: You starting Tanaka tonight in a 12 team league with a 180 start limit? I’m 1 start behind the pace. Thank you!

9:46
Justin Mason: no

9:46
Moltar: I can wait to see how their respective starts shake out but I need to decide before thursday waivers, Hill or Hellickson ROS?

9:46
Justin Mason: If hill gets through this start tonight, I’ll take his upside.

9:46
Chris: I’ve been patient with Dustin Fowler, but would you rather have Jorge Bonifacio in an AL OBP league right now?

9:47
Justin Mason: Close, but no

9:47
Jeffe: what kind of return would you expect for Muncy in a keeper?

9:47
Justin Mason: top 50-70 player

9:47
Matt: How you valuing Corbin as a keeper? I’m not sure the extent to which I buy this success (at least, not to *this* level), but he’s held at $7 in our league, and I’m not sure I’d be able to buy him without paying for the keeper years…

9:47
Justin Mason: I don’t want Corbin as a keeper. I don’t know how long he can maintain this success with the velocity drop. He is a sell guy for me

9:48
The Dude: Is Vlad Jr. the best offensive prospect since Trout and Harper?

9:48
Justin Mason: From a pure hitting prospective, yes.

9:48
Vegan Man!: Would you trade Choo for Carpenter if you’re starting Yonder at 1B? Or do you think Yonder improves 2nd half? Thank you!

9:48
Justin Mason: I would do that

9:48
Glarner: Safe to drop Sano?

9:48
Justin Mason: depends on depth of league.

9:48
Asking for a friend: Ozuna v. Nimmo ROS redraft

9:48
Justin Mason: Ozuna

9:49
Vegan Man!: Who do you like more long term in a 14 team dynasty points league: Dee or Andrus? Thank you!

9:49
Justin Mason: Dee

9:49
Rocco: Are you buying into the Jordan Zimmermann resurgance?

9:49
Justin Mason: nope. Fell for that before.

9:49
Joe: Eovaldi or Porcello?

9:49
Justin Mason: Porcello I guess

9:49
CW: Are you starting a rusty Cueto tonight against the Cubs?

9:50
Justin Mason: Only in a points format that doesn’t kill you if he gets blown up. I am worried about the velocity drop and control issues I saw in the last start.

9:51
Asking for a friend: Desclafani v. Zimmerman or neither and stream

9:51
Justin Mason: Stream

9:51
Vegan Man!: I’m in 2nd place in my 12 team roto. Would you drop any of the following to stash Cano right now: Villar, Dietrich, Matt Chapman, David Price? Thank you!

9:51
Justin Mason: Dietrich

9:51
Patty V: Who are you relying on for SB’s ROS? Who has more SB’s, Ozzie or Whit?

9:51
Justin Mason: Whit

9:52
Chris: Would you drop Chad Green to speculate on Hildenberger or Givens?

9:52
Justin Mason: sure

9:52
Kluber: How many years of acedom do I have left?

9:52
Justin Mason: 3

9:52
Walsh: Trade Schwarber for Cain in dynasty points league?

9:52
Justin Mason: yup

9:52
Stratton demotion : How are you handling the news emotionally?

9:52
Justin Mason: Not well, but in the grand scheme of things, I got 8 wins out of him.

9:52
Parrot: Speaking of Robbie Ray, would you trade Carlos Santana for him?

9:53
Justin Mason: sure

9:53
Smitty: Schoop for G Richards? Have plenty of depth at 2B and could use a SP.

9:53
Justin Mason: yes

9:53
Bill: How much stock do you put in expected stats like xBA, xSLG, etc. when evaluating buy/sell candidates?

9:54
Justin Mason: I don’t use them for buying or sell necessarily. I more look at them to see if they back up other research or what I am seeing on the field. x stats aren’t predictive in nature.

9:54
Over Here: Starting Manaea tonight?

9:54
Justin Mason: No

9:55
Mason Tees: Your likeness has led to beautiful garb. What’s your ideal Fangraphs or Mason clothing item that has yet to be created?

9:56
Justin Mason: Good question! I would love some Mrs. D apparel to be made. For those who haven’t seen some of the great stuff that has been made, check some of it out here: https://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_sb_noss?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-k…

9:57
Justin Mason: On that note, that is going to do it for me today. Feel free to hit me up on facebook at https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100008744507752 or on twitter @justinmasonfwfb.





Justin is the co-host on The Sleeper and The Bust Podcast and writes for Rotographs covering the Roto Riteup as well as other periodic articles. In addition to his work at Rotographs, Justin is the lead fantasy writer/analyst and co-owner for FriendswithFantasyBenefits.com, and the owner of The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational. He is also a certified addiction treatment counselor. Follow Justin on Twitter @JustinMasonFWFB.

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