Just How Good is A.J. Pollock?

I have been a pretty big A.J. Pollock fan for some time now. I made a bold move that could be conceived as an overpay for Pollock in a dynasty league (Ryan Braun for Pollock and Odor – with prospects moving on both sides), which I believe shows how much of an advocate I am for Pollock – and Odor for that matter.

With that said, a big thing Pollock has going for him is his park. Drafting and owning guys that hit in awesome parks is not a new idea for fantasy, but a guy like Pollock who relies heavily on maintaining a high BABIP and being on base frequently to steal gets a lot of value out of hitting in a top notch offensive ballpark. There of course is the value in him likely hitting more home runs here than elsewhere, but his average going from reasonable top upper tier makes him a very valuable piece.

The Diamondbacks have somewhat of a roster crunch in the outfield, but Pollock’s defense allows him to be the everyday man even if he starts to slide a bit offensively. While defense does not show up on the fantasy scorebook, being high quality on the side of the ball and ensuring your plate appearances in at a crowded position absolutely has some value.

Looking at what Pollock has done, the Diamondbacks have let him attempt to steal six times in 19 games. Prior to the year I did not think it was outlandish to expect Pollock to close to double his production from last year in a healthy year. His BABIP was high as was his home run per fly ball rate, but his park combined with his bat control should continue to allow him to hit for a high BABIP despite the likely drop in home run rate. What I like about his skills at the plate is that he takes more pitches in the zone than the average hitter but also as a higher contact rate in the zone than the average hitter. What I see when I look at those numbers is a mature hitter who understands that certain pitches are still tough to hit even though they are strikes, and that he is willing to swing at hittable pitches and 92% of the time in those situations he makes contact. That should allow him to post BABIP’s higher than the majority of major league hitters.

Keep in mind that Pollock has never hit 10 home runs in a season before, but he did get close in each of the past two years despite not reaching 500 plate appearances in either season. I think it is fair to assume the near .200 ISO he put together last year was a high, and that he will likely sit more toward the .150ish mark going forward. Over a full season of plate appearances that should net him double digit home runs, just not a number at or near 20 like he was on pace to do last year had he not been injured.

In my estimation with Pollock, we are looking at 12-15 home runs and 20-25 steals with an average around .300. I still think the perception around Pollock is that he is not as good as the numbers he put up in under 300 plate appearances last year. With that perception, I think Pollock is a very attractive trade target for almost any league. A current 27-year-old speedy outfielder with nice career numbers and some overlooked power is a player any of us would like on our roster, and not many could be acquired for as affordable a price as Pollock can.