Jorge Polanco is a New York Met

Gosh, isn’t Jorge Polanco cold by now?! Though he has gone from the middle of the country to the West coast and now the East coast, he has somehow managed to remain North. Polanco signed a two-year, $40 million contract with the Mets last Tuesday after his highest PA total since 2021 and highest ever wRC+. Regardless of whether you think the Mets are buying high here, let’s dive into the park factors to see how the move from Seattle’s home park, T-Mobile Park, to Citi Field might impact his results.

Wowzers, that’s quite the cleanup by Citi Field!

Let’s begin with the non-home run hit type factors. Amazingly, both parks have suppressed singles, doubles, and triples. Citi Field has reduced singles slightly less dramatically than T-Mobile though, which should result in a slightly higher park-related BABIP. In the two years Polanco was with the Mariners, he posted a .279 BABIP at home, but just a .264 mark on the road. That’s quite surprising given T-Mobile’s BABIP suppressing ways. For his career, he does own around a league average mark, though nearly all of his .300+ marks came in 2019 and earlier.

Polanco really ratcheted up the doubles this season, hitting 30 after just 11 in 2024, reducing his 2B/AB from about 38 to just under 16. Here, the two factors are nearly identical, with Citi Field suppressing them slightly more than T-Mobile has. Clearly, the park switch is unlikely to have much of an impact here. Polanco hasn’t tripled since 2021, so I think we could ignore those factors, but wow are these parks bad for hitting three-baggers!

Next up are the home run factors. Citi Field has played right around neutral the past three seasons, while T-Mobile has suppressed home runs. Once again, we find Polanco’s splits fly in the face of the factors, as he posted a 15.1% HR/FB rate at T-Mobile, versus just a 13.8% mark on the road. Even though his results didn’t follow the park factor, I would still argue that the move is good for his HR/FB rate. Also worth mentioning is that he’s coming off his second highest HR/FB rate and ISO of his career, so he may end up experiencing natural regression regardless of what park he calls home next season.

Overall, both parks suppress total hits, but Citi Field suppresses them slightly less. So again, theoretically this should be a positive for both Polanco’s BABIP and HR/FB rate.

Next up are the plate discipline related metrics. We find that Citi Field holds a massive advantage in walk factor, significantly inflating them, while T-Mobile has suppressed them. Finally, Polanco’s home/road splits follow the factors, as he posted a lower walk rate at home than on the road. As we see when jumping over to the OBP factors, he should see a nice boost from the park switch as both his BABIP and walk rate rise.

Both parks inflate strikeouts, but Citi Field only does so marginally, while T-Mobile has really inflated them. Sure enough, Polanco did post a higher strikeout rate at home. He’s actually coming off a nice strikeout rate rebound after spikes in 2023 and 2024, so imagine where that mark would have ended up if he wasn’t in a park that massively increased strikeouts. Similar to how I mentioned potential natural regression in HR/FB rate, despite a better home run factor at his new home, Polanco’s strikeout rate may regress just due to the dramatic improvement over the previous two seasons, and the park switch won’t be to blame.

We finish off with the runs scored and overall Park Factor mark, both of which favor Citi Field. That was a given considering it nearly swept the individual park factors. It’s pretty clear that the park switch alone is a positive, though there are certainly a number of other parks that would have been even more beneficial.

Aside from the impact of the park switch, health is going to play a major role in his fantasy returns. He has only recorded at least 500 PAs four times in his career. He’s also coming off the best offensive season of his career and second highest power output. The underlying skills don’t scream fluke though, but it’s anyone’s guess whether he maintains the significant strikeout rate improvement, particularly given that his SwStk% remained in double digits.

Personally, I think the current depth charts projection is a bit light on the per plate appearance production, but even a repeat of his 2025 won’t make him worth significantly more than replacement in shallow mixed leagues anyway.