Jordan Zimmermann’s Poor Stretch
From Jeff Sullivan’s chat that’s happening *right now* on the site:
9:02 Comment From bdhudson
Jordan Zimmermann is developing a really unpleasant trend.9:02 Jeff Sullivan:
This is an example of a prompt that sends me to 60 seconds of research9:02 Jeff Sullivan:
This is why my chats go so much slower than others do9:03 Jeff Sullivan:
Zimmerman’s first 13 starts: 2.00 ERA, 4% BB, 17% K9:03 Jeff Sullivan:
Zimmermann’s last 12 starts: 5.27 ERA, 7% BB, 20% K
This is a bit difficult in terms of DIPS, maybe — Zimmermann has been striking more people out, but still undergoing the regression that we thought might be coming when we last ranked him among the starting pitchers. Regression that we predicted because he doesn’t strike a ton of people out.
The easy way out of any paradox here is the concept of K%-BB%. The basis for kwERA, this simple formula beat out the other predictors in an in-season test last year, and it’s basically the backbone of DIPS (Defense Independent Pitching Statistics) theory. Get the outs you can get all by your lonesome, and limit the guys you put on base on your lonesome, and all the rest of it will even out eventually. You can see that Zimmermann’s K%-BB% is the same in both stretches. His batting average on balls in play through June was under .250, his BABIP the last two months over .320. Presto bingo bango blog post.
Baseball is a little more complicated than that. Why is Zimmermann suddenly a high-strikeout starter?
Looking at his pitching mix, he’s thrown 14% curves since July first, and that’s up from 12% career. That’s just 17 more curves, though, over nine starts. That’s not even two extra curveballs per start. Probably not the cause of a change in statistical profile. The curve might have lost some horizontal movement (as much as an inch and a half) as well as some vertical movement (an inch), but it’s also getting fewer whiffs. In fact, it’s not the greatest pitch, as it gets below-average whiffs and grounders, and according to Brooks Baseball, is a ball more than any other pitch he throws. Probably not the curve.
It’s always worth checking the pitching mix when you see a pitcher’s numbers take a detour. More curves could have meant more strikeouts and more walks for Zimmermann, and in fact they still could, despite the deficiencies of that particular pitch. But the change in mix was so small, it doesn’t seem like a good idea to point in that direction this time.
No, this time, the Standard Blog Post might have had it right. When June ended, Zimmermann’s BABIP was .238. Since then, it’s been .342. And yet Jordan Zimmermann is mostly the same guy he used to be. This is the beauty of DIPS.
With a phone full of pictures of pitchers' fingers, strange beers, and his two toddler sons, Eno Sarris can be found at the ballpark or a brewery most days. Read him here, writing about the A's or Giants at The Athletic, or about beer at October. Follow him on Twitter @enosarris if you can handle the sandwiches and inanity.
I watch Zim closely. Part of it may be simple regression, but part of it is also that he’s made more mistakes lately. More balls left over the plate he had meant to put on a corner.
I honestly believe when the Nats dropped out of contention he lost some of his Mojo
Do we give him a pass for the homers? I don’t accept that HR/FB are one big lottery. Mistakes often wind up crushed into the seats.
Also, look at the walk numbers in the second half (and his entire 2H career profile). I know, you can say almost anything you want with arbitrary endpoints …
Without any intended snark, what are we supposed to surmise from this post? That he is really just a matchups only guy at this point?
He’s had SIERAs around 3.7 and FIPS in the mid threes for a few years now, that’s still an every-starter unless you want to sit in AL parks.
5X5 Head to head standard scoring 12 Team league
Looks like I held on to J-Zimm a little too long. Even after everything I read and heard about regression. Should I try to sell low and get what I can or just drop him and cut my loses?
Thank,
Coach T
I think you can start him most days. Avoid AL parks, maybe Colorado and Arizona, and you should be fine.
Thanks for the article, Eno. My original concern was more about his 1st/2nd half splits, as his career 2nd half numbers (over 200 innings compared to 440 first half innings) are dramatically worse. ERA higher by 1.5, wOBA higher by 70, etc. At what point is he just a guy who doesn’t have the stamina? 2011 was the TJ year, 2012 was the first year back, but he should have been fully healthy this year, right? Is he just not a 200 innings guy?
Could be a simple confluence of the fact that part of his ‘magic’ is homer suppression, and homers trend up in the warmer weather of the second half? I just didn’t see a loss in velocity that was a red flag. maybe a tiny bit of loss in movement, which could mean something mechanical.
Check his arm slot and release point. Both influence pitch movement.
Tom Boswell of the Washington Post had an interesting column earlier in the year about why so many of the Nats pitchers were struggling (Zimmermann not included then): first pitch strikes.
According to Boz, in 2012 the data for all MLB pitchers showed that SPs who got ahead in the count 0-1 had a much better chance of getting the batter out than pitchers who fell behind 1-0. The difference was roughly 90 pts.–.170 vs. .260.
Early in the season, Zimmermann was routinely getting ahead of batters, much more so than Strasburg, Gio or Haren.
I haven’t seen many of his recent starts, but against the Cubs last night he frequently fell behind batters. And then he simply made bad pitches that caught too much of the plate, with predictable results.
And as noted above, this is the third consecutive August during which Zimmermann has put up less than stellar numbers. Perhaps arm fatigue has something to do with his regression. If he’s not painting the black with his four-seamer, getting ahead of batters and expanding the strike zone, he’s going to have problems. After all, his whiff rate even during the first 3 months with his four primary pitches was, at best, major league average.
His 66.3 F-Strike% puts him 8th in baseball so far this year. It would be nice if we had splits on f-strike%, but I couldn’t find them – would definitely help to either substantiate or dismiss this theory.
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=5&season=2013&month=0&season1=2013&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=10,d
Don’t think first pitch strike has been a second half issue other than this last game. In fact, he has been fantastic since 7/1:
http://www.fangraphs.com/statsd.aspx?playerid=4505&position=P&type=8&gds=&gde=&season=2013
Thanks for the info guys. Only Milone and Hughes have a higher percentage of first pitch strikes for the last 30 day.
Toss that theory out the window.
Thanks for the analysis. All I had before reading this was an free-floating rage at what he’s been doing to my ratios.
Is he worth starting anymore in fantasy leagues?