Jordan Rosenblum’s 2026 Bold Predictions Recap

It’s time to review my bold predictions for 2026. I hoped to get at least three of these correct, but a more important goal was to give readers actionable insights. They are listed in order from least bold to most bold.

Correct: Cody Ponce outperforms Tatsuya Imai.

Ponce tore his ACL in his first start of the season, ruling him out for the year. Imai had a rough debut, underperforming his projections before getting demoted to the bullpen. This was the least bold of my predictions as Ponce had better projections across the board, yet Imai received a much larger contract and he was typically drafted earlier in fantasy leagues. Imai returned negative fantasy value this year while Ponce was a zero, so this one was correct, even if Ponce’s effectiveness is yet to be demonstrated.

Half-correct: Munetaka Murakami leads the league in strikeouts while mashing 35 home runs.

Murakami hit exactly 35 home runs despite missing a chunk of the season with injury. He was second in the league in K% rate among qualified hitters (35.4%), behind teammate Colson Montgomery (35.6%). Some analysts were skeptical that Murakami could succeed while striking out in a third of his plate appearances, even though the projection systems were unanimous in their faith in his ability to succeed despite a sky-high K%. The idea behind this bold prediction was to demonstrate that a K% rate over 30% is not something to be feared if the player also has a lot of patience and power. Technically, this prediction was incorrect as he was second in the league in K% rather than first, but the preseason projections were dead-on here.

Fail: Grayson Rodriguez eclipses 140 innings.

The idea behind this prediction was to highlight the arbitrary nature of pitcher injuries. Rodriguez failed to hit the 140 inning mark, reaching 117.2 innings across the minors and majors, so this prediction was not correct. I’d argue that Rodriguez exceeded expectations regarding the quantity of innings pitched, but he totally failed to live up to expectations regarding the quality of innings pitched, well underperforming his preseason ERA projections, especially his OOPSY. So perhaps there is a lesson for me here: even if pitcher injuries are largely a product of random variance, attrition often means that pitchers are not as effective after injuries and prolonged time off; accordingly, I may decide to have OOPSY regress hurt arms more heavily moving forward.

Half-correct: Julian Garcia makes his MLB debut.

The idea here was to highlight a totally off-the-radar name who might end up being relevant in deeper leagues. After a dominant couple of seasons in the American Association, an independent league, Garcia signed with the Reds in 2025. He was very good in the minors in 2025 and 2026, eventually earning a promotion to MLB. He was solid in 46 innings in a bullpen role, with a 4.03 SIERA. Technically, I was correct here, but I was hoping he’d start, and OOPSY is no longer as excited as it was heading into the 2026 season. So this is a case of being technically correct but wrong in spirit as I don’t think this prediction ended up being particularly helpful.

Correct: Reid Detmers breaks out, rating as a top 30 starting pitcher per the FanGraphs auction calculator using standard Main Event settings.

Detmers was a revelation in a breakout 2026 campaign, indeed finishing among the top 30 starting pitchers. I was worried about this one early on, as he had a 5.07 ERA across his first ten starts, despite his usual shiny peripherals, and I feared a premature demotion to the bullpen. Instead, he shoved the rest of the way, with a 2.63 ERA and 3.12 xFIP across his final 22 starts. It’s safe to say he won’t be undervalued moving forward.

Fail: Evan Carter stays healthy, shakes the platoon, and breaks out, with at least 600 plate appearances, 15 home runs, and 25 stolen bases.

Carter fell short across the board here, with a 12 HR/600 and 22 SB/600 pace across 455 plate appearances. The idea of this prediction was to highlight the volatility of small-sample platoon splits. Carter did me no favors, with a -5 wRC+ across 77 plate appearances versus lefties. I still think he shakes the platoon eventually as he’s only 24 and 145 (awful) career plate appearances versus lefties remains a tiny sample of struggles, so maybe I run this one back in 2027 or, to be safe, 2028, but this was a clear fail.

Fail: Denzel Clarke’s glove keeps him in the lineup enough to rack up three WAR, 15 home runs, and 25 stolen bases.

Clarke missed most of the season with a bone bruise and strained hamstring. In the 87 plate appearances when he was healthy, he did very little, with an 11 wRC+ and zero home runs, making this prediction one of the most epic fails on this list. The idea here was to bet on elite defensive value giving Clarke enough leash to accumulate solid offensive counting stats. He doesn’t need to be an average hitter to play everyday, but he needs to at least get his wRC+ up to 80 or so. Grasping for positives, he did hit well on his rehab assignment, with a 157 wRC+ across 41 plate appearances, providing me with a sliver of hope heading into the offseason.

Correct: Either Mason Montgomery or Graham Ashcraft lands a closing job.

This one was a bet on talent overcoming the initial bullpen hierarchies in Cincinnati and Pittsburgh. Both Montgomery and Ashcraft were buried on closer depth charts entering the year, Montgomery behind Dennis Santana and Gregory Soto, and Ashcraft behind Emilio Pagán, among others. Montgomery also had to beat out midseason acquisition, Luke Weaver, later in the year.

Entering the year, both guys were also the best relievers on their teams per OOPSY. Ashcraft didn’t work out: he narrowly avoided Tommy John surgery, and wasn’t all that effective when he was on the field. Montgomery did his part, however, bypassing everyone else to seize the closing job with an incredible run of dominance to end the year — with a 1.83 xFIP and 3 earned runs allowed over his final 26.1 innings. He’ll be drafted as a clear RP1 heading into 2027, and rightfully so.

Fail: Dynasty bold prediction: Aron Estrada and Ty Johnson continue their breakouts, reaching 75% ownership levels in Fantrax by November 1st.

These were both prospects that OOPSY Peak liked as top 100 guys, much more than the industry consensus did. This was a dynasty-league-oriented bet on OOPSY Peak being right about these two guys. Ty Johnson was one of the best starting pitchers in Triple-A this year, with a 24 K% minus BB%. He was called up to pitch in a bullpen role toward the end of the season, where he held his own. He didn’t hit his Fantrax ownership target, but he remains an OOPSY Peak favorite.

Estrada, on the other hand, was disappointing in Double-A for Baltimore. His peak projection is down now to the point where he’s no longer considered an OOPSY Peak Top 100 prospect heading into next year.

Overall, this prediction was a failure, but I consider the Ty Johnson half of it directionally useful, and the Aron Estrada half not so much.

Fail: Emmanuel Rodriguez out-homers Konnor Griffin.

This prediction was the boldest of the predictions mostly for playing time reasons as Griffin was expected to make his MLB debut early in the season while Emmanuel Rodriguez was expected to debut later on. Rodriguez was great while healthy, with a 138 Triple-A wRC+, but injuries made sure he wouldn’t debut until September, dooming this prediction. Griffin performed in line with his projections, holding his own in the majors, but he also missed significant time with injury. In the end, Rodriguez ended up with two home runs versus Griffin’s six, not as far off as preseason projections expected. Rodriguez has a good shot to claim an everyday job out of spring training next year; this prediction wouldn’t be anywhere near as bold for 2027.

Overall, I got four predictions right according to my own hopefully not too biased evaluation. More importantly, I hope readers were able to take some things away from my projections-pilled thought process.