It Ain’t Over Til It’s Over

Whether you think first of Lenny Kravitz or Yogi Berra, the simple truism used to title this article is a more than just a pithy saying. Sometimes we think a game is out of reach – and it turns out it isn’t. Sometimes we think a series is won – and it’s not. And sometimes you think it’s late September and my fantasy standings are locked in. But are they really?

There is still a lot that can happen even in the last four days of the season.

My most tightly contested race isn’t for a title, but for 3rd place in the Original Ottoneu league and there are a lot of moving parts here. It’s a 4×4 league (OBP, SLG, HR, R; ERA, WHIP, K, HR/9) and it is tempting to think it’s nearly impossible to move your rates or make up much ground in counting stats over just a few days, but let’s look at what is still on the line here.

If you check the standings, you’ll see what looks like safe leads from first (86 points, before games start Thursday) to second (82); second to third (82 to 74), and third to fourth (71.5). But none of those leads are truly locked in. Let’s go spot by spot.

First/Second

Last Year’s Leftovers has been a dominant force in this league at times, but hasn’t had a title since 2023. He’s up four on Six Pelvis Sword, who is staring at a second-straight silver medal after topping the standings in 2024. Four points is a lot of movement in four days. Last Year’s Leftovers could lose three points without any other team having a particularly good or bad few days:

1. Have an OBP of roughly .260 over four days, which would cost him a point in OBP.
2. Hold off throwing more innings to protect his rates and lose up to two points in strikeouts

Meanwhile, if Six Pelvis Sword has a team SLG of roughly .475 over the next few days, he would gain a point in that category. Of course, if the right other teams have good or bad half-weeks, the Swords might only need a .450 slug or the Leftovers might fall back with a .300 OBP. Six Pelvis Sword could also benefit if the pitching staff for one other team (The Shandalorian) gets a case of gopheritis. Something like 36 more innings with seven long balls would push Shandalorian’s HR/9 above Six Pelvis Sword. Is that likely? No. But it isn’t outlandish, either.

Second/Third

This is the biggest gap and hardest to see a path to close, but it is still feasible. Negative EV needs to make up 7 HR on two teams to gain two points. That isn’t easy, but hitting 2-3 HR in a night isn’t all that unlikely, stacking that up for four days is certainly realistic and those two teams could go cold. He has out-homered one of those teams 13-3 over the last week; the other he is up 13-10.

An OBP of .365-.370 over the rest of the season (Negative EV has a .422 OBP over the last week) would not only move him up a spot, it would move him over Six Pelvis Sword, creating a two point swing.

On the pitching side, Negative EV can gain a point in strikeouts by getting four more than the team ahead of him, and neither team is going to reach their innings cap, so that should be feasible. Especially given the team ahead of them in strikeouts isn’t contending and may not push to hold that point. Six Pelvis Sword is likely to lose a point in strike outs tonight (more on that later). Six Pelvis Sword is out of innings, but good performances from other pitchers could cost them points in HR/9, ERA, and WHIP, as well. Negative EV is unlikely to make up ground in rates, but 38+ IP with a WHIP of 1.00 or better gets him a point in WHIP.

OBP and WHIP could also move with less impressive performances by Negative EV if they get a little help from others. An 8 point gap from second to third is a lot, but we just found two points in HR, two in OBP, two in K, and four in pitching rates, for 10 total. Getting all of those – or even eight of those – is a long-shot, but it’s definitely possible.

Third/Fourth

This is the one I care most about. My team, the Freeport Pretzels, are in fourth. It’s been a roller coaster of a year that saw me go from the bottom of the league in April to the bottom half in May, to almost the top in the Summer, back to the middle of the pack in August. And now I have slowly climbed back into the prize spots (top four, thankfully) and have been wrestling with Negative EV for third place down the stretch. When the day started Thursday, I was 2.5 points behind him. Those 2.5 points are easy to find.

First, I am going to finish off my pitching for the year today with Tyler Mahle and Tyler Glasnow. Four strikeouts from those two plus my pen gets me a point. Maybe that isn’t a 100% lock, but it feels like a lock. If I can get 20 strikeouts today, I can get a second point, though I only get to hold that point if Last Year’s Leftovers chooses to stop pitching to protect their rates.

If the Tyler’s pitch well, there is an outside path to a couple of pitching rates points. For ERA, it would take 19 shutout innings from those two plus my pen to gain a point in ERA. For WHIP, it would take 19 innings with 21 or fewer base runners. I could also get WHIP with 16 innings of 18 or fewer walks plus hits or 12 innings with 13 or fewer. That ERA is extremely unlikely (Mahle and Glasnow have no reason to go deep into their starts and even if they each go 8 shutout, I still need three more shutout innings from my pen), but WHIP is doable if I get two great starts.

Meanwhile, Negative EV is less than .005 ahead of the team behind them in HR/9. He could easily lose that point.

On offense, I am in a deadlock with another team in HR and six and eight HR behind two other teams. I am also .00019 ahead of Negative EV and .00069 behind Six Pelvis Sword in SLG. There’s another point ahead of me in SLG that could come into play. Runs are not in play and OBP is only barely in play, but a big power weekend for my boys and I could bludgeon my way into third.

What You Should Take From This

That is a lot of words on one league that you probably don’t play in (if you do – hi! I’ll be looking to trade away MI this off-season!). But my goal is to point out how tight the margins can still be, even in late September. Check your standings. Don’t give up hope or rest on your laurels. A lot can happen in four days.