Is My Fantasy Man-Crush on Michael Bourn Wrong?
The text came in on January 1, 2013 at 12:01 AM.
“Happy New Year! Michael Bourn in the 4th round? Dubious.”
“Happy New Year! Last of the true burners. Still a good value in roto-based leagues,” I responded.
“Juan Pierre in Round 20,” was what followed.
Now considering who this text came from — a good friend of mine and four-time champion of our 15-team, 5×5, mixed keeper home league who in 2012 wrapped up his third consecutive title — it gave me pause. Did I reach too high in the Rotographs mock draft when I took Bourn with the 41st pick? Am I putting too much stock in him and his stolen bases? Was he being serious or was he just trying to get into my head while my mind was….well…somewhat off-kilter? While it certainly didn’t ruin my night, I’d be lying if I said that I didn’t spend the next 10 or 15 minutes running through some of the names drafted between my fourth and fifth picks as Bobby, Phil and the boys jammed on Sugar Magnolia.
But as the jam moved into a crowd-pleasing Help>Slip>Franklin’s, I thankfully snapped out of it. Did I reach? Maybe a little. But there was no way to be sure that he was going to be available to me by the time it was my next pick, I thought. Would Wiers have taken him over Austin Jackson? Would Swydan have taken him instead of his third starting pitcher? Maybe. Maybe not. But considering the fact that his current ADP sits right around 40 and in two industry mocks that I saw prior to this one, Bourn went in the early third round of one and in the early fourth of the other, I thought that, given my strategy, the time was right.
You see…I love drafting speed in roto leagues. While everyone will tell you that you can find plenty of stolen bases much later on in the draft, I’m a firm believer in picking up a few well-proven stolen base commodities to give myself an extra edge as the year goes on. You lock them in, jump out to a decent lead in the category for the first half of the season and when the time is right, trade a couple of them away for help in those categories where you may be lagging. It seems like every year, as the trade deadline approaches, owners are constantly looking for added stolen bases because the category is consistently so movable. The addition of just one burner could potentially move a team up enough to be the difference between finishing in the money and languishing in the middle of the pack.
And Bourn is such a great guy to do this with. He’s a proven commodity. He’s led the National League in stolen bases for three of the last four years and the only reason Everth Cabrera was able to edge him out last year was because he [Bourn] ended up in Atlanta where Fredi Gonzalez is apparently allergic to the green light. In fact, since 2009, he is the only player who ranks in the top five for stolen bases each and every year. Sure, I could use later picks to grab a guy like Pierre or Rajai Davis or Ben Revere, but these guys are constantly dealing with playing time issues and are usually lacking in runs scored, batting average or both. When you’re looking to make a big move at your deadline, who would you rather own — a guy who’s averaged 644 plate appearances and 51 stolen bases over the last five years or a guy who’s sitting in a platoon and just a trade from turning into some team’s fifth outfielder and pinch runner? Which player is going to bring you the better return value in a trade? Guaranteed playing time and batting leadoff seems like the no-brainer choice to me.
Is there a concern that at the age of 30, Bourn might be slowing down? Sure. But since 2000, there have been 15 players who have stolen 40 or more bases at age 30 or older and four of them have done it more than once. So while age might be a bit of a concern, the fact that he hasn’t had any leg injuries (knock on wood) or anything that would send up a red flag, the concern is not really that significant right now. Whether you hold him for yourself all year or you trade him away at the deadline, you’re going to get a solid return value from him even as a fourth round pick.
Howard Bender has been covering fantasy sports for over 10 years on a variety of websites. In addition to his work here, you can also find him at his site, RotobuzzGuy.com, Fantasy Alarm, RotoWire and Mock Draft Central. Follow him on Twitter at @rotobuzzguy or for more direct questions or comments, email him at rotobuzzguy@gmail.com
Potential value of Billy Hamilton?
Given that he’s likely to spend most if not all of 2013 at AAA, I’d call his value minimal.
One problem that I’ve found with finding buyers later on in the season is that by this time, several “unknowns” have proven to be reliable base stealers as well. They might not contribute as well in other categories, but by this point teams have a chance to see what they have elsewhere. If a team doesn’t need the runs or average stability in addition to the stolen bases, getting the value you want becomes quite difficult.
My reaction was a variation of this. It’s never good to draft a team around the expectation of a future trade. For example, one of my leagues had over 40 trades in 2011 and 8 in 2012.
You also highlight one of the issues with this strategy. If you’re running away with the league, then it’s easy to trade speed to a mid-tier team that’s trying to finish in the money. But that’s not a likely position to be in. You’re probably going to be doing well in SB, R, and AVG and poorly in HR and RBI. Let’s say you’re pitching stats are average.
That likely means that your team is around 3rd-5th place. Will you want to trade speed to a team in that same cohort if it means they will probably gain 3 points?
I agree that you went with Bourn a little too high there. I’d trade Bourn for nearly any of the players drafted after him in that draft over the next couple rounds. I like Fangraphs Points scoring as a way to evaluate fantasy players, though I realize 5×5 leagues have to be measured a bit differently, but this is about value and I think Bourn has to be in a lower tier than he was valued here. You went with a player who was safe to give you 800-850 points while the upside of all the guys that went after that were 950-1000 point guys. (Gonzalez, Hernandez, Headley, Zobrist, Sandoval, Jackson, Bruce, Darvish, Ellsbury)
Sure those guys all come with risks. But taking Bourn and passing up on upside in round 4 also is risky.
Maybe more risky than waiting til the later rounds and nabbing a Revere, Aoki, Crisp type to fill out your steals.
Howard-I knew i liked you for a reason…..I am a big Dead fan as well…….
re: Bourn, the way I look at it is you can trade for steals more easily than for power. I prefer to load up on power early.
love the dead, love rotographs
If Bourn in the 4th is wrong, then I don’t wanna be right
I’ll let others draft speed, while I get it off the waiver wire… I try to load up on power/speed guys early in the draft so I don’t have to rely on one player for speed…
adam jones was taken a few picks before Bourne (not even in the same tier IMO), then Ellsbury, Granderson, and Bruce went after you picked up Bourn… Power has been on a downward trend the last few seasons, so I value power much more than speed…
I would rather have B.J. Upton paired with someone with good average rather than a one dimensional Bourne-type player…
I generally use a similar strategy, trying to target 30/30 and 20/20 types early on, however, especially in H2H leagues, Bourn can win you the SB category on his own, and what he’ll contribute to your team in R’s makes him a worthwhile 4th rounder. BJ Upton will get your more power, more RBI at the cost of a few less SB’s (and with him in ATL he may be taking even more of a hit there) and hurt you in AVG.
Totally agree with you — Power > Speed these days. Bourn could easily return positive value, but it’s better to load up on the power/speed guys like Cespedes, Ellsbury, Upton a round or two later.
Mancrush = wrong. Always. Even if just for fantasy baseball purposes, certainly for any other kind of fantasy. Unless you’re a girl.
Well that stinks Gay because I’ve got a lot of mancrushes, now what do I do?
Whoops I meant Gary. Freudian slip perhaps?
Bourne in the 4th seems a little bit of a reach. I’d much rather nab power guys first.
That said, alcides escobar had a pretty nice year in the SB dept and could be had in the later rounds at the SS position to boot. Any thoughts on what he might provide in 2013?
You beat me to it. I was going to suggest that Alcides Escobar from the SS position and likely much later in the draft is probably a better value than Bourn.
im targeting gardner/revere late. i dont see revre having playing time issues in phillies weak outfield. they dealt a very good pitcher for him after all.
The thought process in my league is the same as most of the commenters, i.e. power trumps speed. I picked up Bourn for a song in last year’s auction and he’ll likely be there for me again for super cheap. Last year I bet against the public and won big. Count-on-it speed is something that I’ll never pass up in fantasy baseball until everyone else in my league starts to do the same. I was able to buy cheap power last year: Willingham (.264 ISO), Encarnacion (.277 ISO), Goldschmidt (.204), and Quentin (.243). All were less than $10 because of some perceived flaw or not being “elite”. This is also why auctions rule, bargains abound for those who plan ahead and wait for their guys.
If only I can stop missing on picking pitchers, I never seem to get the right guy in the right spot.
my personal opinion:
1. I generally find speedy OF to be one of the easiest commodities to find. I suspect it’s because these guys tend to be 4th OFs who take over due to injury or ineffectiveness. 4th OFs often need to handle CF. CFs are often fast. Gomez, Aoki, Pierre, and briefly Campana come to mind last year alone. all of these guys started the year in timeshares or on the bench.
2. Along the same lines, if I start a guy like Bourn all year in the OF, he will harm me in HR/RBI. if I plug in Juan Pierre for a month or a few times a week for a few months, I am not exposed to as much damage.
3. This leads to the 3rd point: my format of choice is roto, and my tried and true roto strategy entails winning HR/RBI/R. contrary to popular belief, you don’t need a speedy leadoff hitter to score a lot of runs. a high-OBP player in a good lineup will score plenty of runs. and obviously a HR is an automatic R.
with all that said, I still believe value trumps all else, and I feel for where Bourn often goes, he is overvalued. he would have to go for slightly less than fair value for me to want to draft him.
my personal opinion:
1. I generally find speedy OF to be one of the easiest commodities to find. I suspect it’s because these guys tend to be 4th OFs who take over due to injury or ineffectiveness. 4th OFs often need to handle CF. CFs are often fast. Gomez, Aoki, Pierre, and briefly Campana come to mind last year alone. all of these guys started the year in timeshares or on the bench.
2. Along the same lines, if I start a guy like Bourn all year in the OF, he will harm me in HR/RBI. if I plug in Juan Pierre for a month or a few times a week for a few months, I am not exposed to as much damage.
3. This leads to the 3rd point: my format of choice is roto, and my tried and true roto strategy entails winning HR/RBI/R. contrary to popular belief, you don’t need a speedy leadoff hitter to score a lot of runs. a high-OBP player in a good lineup will score plenty of runs. and obviously a HR is an automatic R.
with all that said, I still believe value trumps all else, and I feel for where Bourn often goes, he is overvalued. he would have to go for slightly less than fair value for me to want to draft him.