Is Michael Taylor Ready for a Breakout?

Taylor was one of 16 players with at least 14 HR and 16 SB in 2015. The group included luminaries like Paul Goldschmidt, Anthony Rizzo, Manny Machado, Mookie Betts, and Ryan Braun and obviously Taylor’s inclusion doesn’t mean he’s destined to reach their heights. In fact, his .640 OPS was easily the lowest of the bunch (Brett Gardner .742) and it netted a 72 OPS+, 30 points lower than second-worst (Charlie Blackmon 102).

Working in his favor is the fact that Taylor was just a rookie and second-youngest by age at 24 (third-youngest overall as Machado and Betts were both 22) so his deficiencies are understandable. Plus, he played just 20 games at Triple-A before reaching the majors. The biggest difference in Taylor’s game compared to the entire rest of the group is that he strikes out a ton. His 31% strikeout rate was the highest of the 16 players and Justin Upton was the only other one to top 25%. The swing-and-miss wasn’t new for Taylor, he had a 25% rate in 2189 minor league PA.

I’d feel much better about a 2016 breakout if he didn’t whiff so much, but let’s see if there are reasons for optimism.

His 16% SwStr was fifth-highest among qualified batters and the encouraging names in that range all have way more power than Taylor. Of course, if he didn’t have such substantial flaws in his game then he’d be a “sleeper” for everyone which as we know would then take him out of the sleeper category (that’s why I put the quotes around it… most of you probably got that, so I didn’t need this parenthetical). Like Betts or Kris Bryant last year (relatively speaking… they were never being drafted as low as Taylor is right now). In the winter, they had some sleeper cachet, but by draft season that spring they were both firmly in the top 75 overall and rising. Bryant went as high 16th in an NFBC draft while Betts peaked at 21.

That won’t happen to Taylor. While he does have prospect pedigree, it’s not nearly to the level of those two and frankly he just doesn’t the statistical track record to merit such a rise. We talk a lot about buy-low in the fantasy community and honestly it gets overused and suggested in situations where you shouldn’t realistically be able to buy low if your leaguemates are paying even a little attention. One example last year was Carlos Carrasco.

Carrasco had a 4.38 ERA through his first 13 starts, but he also had 85 strikeouts in 74 innings and a 1.24 WHIP that suggested things would get better, especially with a .324 BABIP that was high for the way he was pitching, too. You don’t need to be a sabermetrics guru to see that he was pitching better than his results and no one was selling him off for whatever they could get, either. He could be had, but not in any sort of buy-low situation. By the way, he had a 3.12 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, and 131 K in 110 IP the rest of the way.

Taylor is actually a buy-low player. He went with the third pick of the 22nd round in a draft I did earlier this month. He might only replicate his 2015 which would be fine for the cost, but there’s a chance that he takes a step forward, too. When I was scanning the list of those power-speed guys who went 14+/16+, there was a group that kind of reminded of him instantly from a player type/size angle. It was a snap judgment thing so I decided to look deeper into the numbers to see how comparable these players really were with Taylor.

The guys I had on my list were Dexter Fowler, Charlie Blackmon, Lorenzo Cain, and A.J. Pollock. Taylor’s height and wiry, athletic frame was what stuck with me in the few times I saw him previous to this season which drove my comp list. I made one big mistake. I pictured Pollock taller in my head. He is easily the shortest of this group at a listed 6’1 which means he’s probably closer to 5’11. But let’s look at these four prior to their breakouts and see how Taylor lines up.

I didn’t have a set threshold for the breakout season, but I thought they were pretty obvious: Cain & Pollock 2015, Blackmon 2014, and Fowler 2012. I took their major league numbers prior to the breakout and their minor league track record to compare with what we’ve seen from Taylor. I prorated the HR/SB numbers to per 600 PA, too.

Taylor has the second-lowest OPS of the group, but the largest ISO which combined with his speed to give him the best power-speed combo per 600 PA in the minors. I don’t think the Fowler comp is completely useless, but Taylor has already displayed more power than peak Fowler and Fowler’s approach is much better.

Fowler, Cain, and Pollock all had substantially more playing time before their breakout than Taylor has logged so far. Blackmon only needed 481 PA at the majors before breaking out and while he was 27 years old that season, his 2703 PA in the minors and pre-breakout in the majors are actually 40 fewer than Taylor’s total so far.

Unfortunately, the Blackmon comp runs out of the steam in the same spot as Fowler. In fact, Taylor differs pretty substantially from the entire group when it comes to his plate approach.

He can hang in walk rate with the group outside of Fowler who just crushes the field, but it’s the strikeout rate I mentioned earlier that has me wondering how big of a breakout Taylor can have in 2016 without fixing that a good bit. All of the guys were 20% or lower in the minors with Pollock and Blackmon bordering on elite with their contact abilities and 13% strikeout rates. They’ve all jumped up in the majors as expected, but Taylor’s has been the biggest by far at seven percentage points. Fowler and Cain are north of 20% but are right around the league average for outfielders over the last several years (19-21% since ’09).

The real issue for Taylor’s strikeouts is fastballs. It seems that young players with strikeout issues usually have more trouble with softer stuff as they just pummel heat on their way through the minors and don’t get challenged by much off-speed stuff. Taylor had a 29% strikeout rate on fastballs, second-highest among 145 qualified hitters (Ian Desmond 30%), which was more than double the 14% average from that same qualified group. He struggled regardless of the zone.

The lower third issues stood out initially because of the gap from average and the fact that he was worst in the league. Let’s get the small sample size caveats out of the way here. We’re talking specifically about fastballs in the lower third of the zone, so it’s all of 43 PA from Taylor. The small sample alone is enough to question it at least in terms of whether or not it will carry over, but there’s also the fact that he had just a 4% swinging strike rate on those low fastballs (239 thrown) which was exactly average (well, the exact mark was 4.2%).

There were 78 players in that 145 hitter group who had a 4% swinging strike rate or better on low fastballs and Taylor’s 33% strikeout rate was far and away the highest (Delino DeShields Jr. 26%). Only six of them had a 20% or higher and the group of 78 had a combined 12% strikeout rate on those low fastballs. In other words, Taylor’s strikeout rate should be expected to regress if he maintains that kind of solid swinging strike rate. That will help a little, but the volume isn’t enough to be the key change for him. He really needs to stop fanning so much middle-and-up on fastballs if he wants to carve a real chunk out of that strikeout rate.

His 15% SwStr rate on middle fastballs was second-worst and well beyond the 7% average. His 20% rate on high fastballs was ninth-worst and almost double the 11% average. Cutting into those swinging strike rates will very likely yield big returns for Taylor. When he does make contact with fastballs, he’s very good. His 1.038 OPS on fastballs in play was 38th-best among those 145 qualified hitters. The average was a .918 OPS.

The outer third of the plate, regardless of pitch type, was also a big issue for Taylor. His .443 OPS in 216 PA ending with a pitch on the outer third was second-worst (Chris Owings .353) and his 38% strikeout rate was the worst.

Right-handers were especially problematic for Taylor when it came to the outer third issues. There were 122 righties who had at least 100 PA against right-handers and Taylor’s .401 OPS was fifth-worst (.609 average) and his 41% K rate was fourth-worst in 176 PA. Middle-and-in, he had an .814 OPS in 222 PA. It all added up to a .633 OPS in 398 PA. He had a career .765 OPS and 25% K rate in 1483 PA against righties in the minors.

He was also lagging against lefties with just a .667 OPS, but he only got 113 PA against them so I’m waiting to see more before thinking he has an issue against lefties. He had an .829 OPS as a minor leaguer in 538 PA.

There is still a lot of upside for Taylor, but it could be more of a process if he can’t show sharp improvements against all fastballs and any pitch type vs. right-handers. His contact issues coming up through the minors make him a tough comp for any of the names I originally thought of, but I did find someone who is a great fit for that mold statistically and could be poised for an even bigger 2016.

I’ll be writing about that player later (might not be here at RG because I think he was already claimed by another writer for outfield week, but stay tuned). As for Taylor, he doesn’t necessarily have to get down to the strikeout levels of those other players to have a really good season. Just getting down to his minor league rate would result in a lot more contact. His .880 OPS on balls in play (all pitch types) is right about average for those 145 qualified players (.888).

There are flaws in his game, but huge breakouts don’t always show themselves in the numbers ahead of time like an Andrew McCutchen. Look at the results the four comps were putting up prior to their breakout season. Taylor is the kind of profile you want later in your drafts. Sure, there is  bust potential, but there is bust potential in established veterans being drafted in that area, too. Looking at the outfielders around Taylor in the draft I mentioned earlier, he’s got way more upside than the likes of Melky Cabrera, Austin Jackson, and Denard Span, and probably the same downside.

Don’t be afraid to take a shot on Taylor even a few rounds earlier than that 22nd round slotting. Obviously with that being a 15-teamer, it means he wouldn’t have even gone in a 12-team league until the reserves (276 to fill the rosters and Taylor was 318th off the board) and I’d actually be willing to take him as one of my last couple of picks in 12-teamers. If he totally collapses, we can cut him in May for a player at least as good as the 250th player. Meanwhile, he has top-100 upside.