Is Joe Mauer Still Good at Baseball

Mauer ranked 24th among fantasy first basemen this year according to Colonel Sanders’ rankings behind Mark Teixeira and ahead of Mike Napoli.

On the surface, Joe Mauer’s 2014 season is anything but impressive. In fact, it’s borderline identical to his last injury-marred season back in 2011.

Season	Batting Average	On-Base	Slugging	wOBA
2014	.277	.361	.371	.322
2011	.287	.360	.368	.321

The circumstances were a little different though. In 2011 Mauer was shut down with pneumonia and upper respiratory issues. This year Mauer played out the string, but did miss 34 games in the middle of the season for an oblique issue.

One key difference though is that early in the season, Mauer was still working his way back from a concussion suffered against the Mets last season. That injury cost him the rest of the season — Aug. 20 on — and it’s difficult to know how much that hampered Mauer’s efforts early in the season.

Initially the belief — at least held by me — was that the move to first would be great for Mauer health-wise. He would be able to get into ~150 games, and perhaps see an increase in power with healthier legs underneath him.

The concussion issue is the elephant in the room. The effects are different for everyone, and it’s hard to know how much, if at all, Mauer was affected coming into the season. Here’s what we know:

Month	PA	OPS	wOBA
March/April	116	.725	.326
May	100	.634	.276
June	120	.709	.316
July	3	1.000	.428
August	83	.814	.353
Sept./Oct.	96	.796	.347

What’s odd, however, is that it correlates with an oblique injury. It would be hard to correlate anything to the concussion undoubtedly, but maybe those 40 days off — minus rehab — were exactly what the doctor ordered? It’s hard to say, especially since he had sat for an entire offseason and did very little by his own admission. Similarly, it appears as though Mauer’s oblique injury wasn’t something that was lingering. In fact, it was something that had him lifted from a game after he hit a double. Mauer’s time missed spanned from July 2 to Aug. 11 — a span of 40 days. And the stats we see in August and September are decidedly more vintage Joe.

In the end we’re left with a weird correlation/causation dilemma. If Mauer hits like he did after returning from the oblique — .289/.397/.408 — he should be a value pick depending on the league you’re in. He won’t provide power but should be a very good source for doubles and walks. He also would easily beat the $1 value he posted this season per Sanders’ values.

A sneaky part of the equation will be where the Twins’ new manager hits Mauer. As a leadoff hitter — a drum yours truly has been banging for years — Mauer would maximize value in terms of plate appearances and have a shot to score a lot of runs atop an offense that shockingly was fifth in the AL in runs scored this year. Mauer’s career-high in runs scored is 98. That might be a lofty number to reach, but he could be in that vicinity if he leads off. Even batting second, though, he should score runs in front of Kennys Vargas, Oswaldo Arcia, and company.

In sabermetric friendly leagues I’ll have Mauer as a sleeper, and in 5×5 types I’ll probably try get him cheap depending on what the rest of the league looks like. I am, however, expecting a rebound here. Numbers from 2013 might be out of reach — on the triple-slash side — but I wouldn’t be surprised if he hit 10-12 home runs, drove in 75 runs, and scored 90. If you miss on a Goldschmidt or a Cabrera, Mauer could be a good fallback if you load up elsewhere.