Introduction: Assault on the Pinochle
Welcome. We are two brothers, aggregate age 122 years, of which roughly 106 have been spent as stat geeks and baseball fans, probably in descending order of intensity. One of us, Michael, resides in Manhattan and is a former academic economist, self-described as an idiot savant in econometrics. He’s why you’ll keep reading, if you do. The other, Dan, resides in Albany, New York, the hub of civic virtue, and knows how to type. He also knows just enough about economics and statistics to translate for the multitudes when his brother is speaking in tongues.
Astonishingly, Michael was a Fantasy Baseball virgin until last year, when his brother tarnished his theretofore-unsullied innocence by recruiting him to replace an owner who went AWOL at the last moment in a $50 buy-in league. It might as well have been an introduction to freebase, and overnight, homemade multiple regression analyses started popping up like toadstools. We’ll share the results of one recent study with you next time: an attempt to identify hitters who were pitched to differently, and reacted to the pitches they saw differently, in the second half of the 2014 season, betokening (we surmise) a newfound respect among their opponents. You don’t need our help to figure out that you might want to draft Nolan Arenado or perhaps Jedd Gyorko. But how about Ender Inciarte, Ike Davis, and Delmon Young, all of whom we recommend?
Anyway: having finished third and fourth, in an order we won’t disclose, in last year’s $50 league, we took the obvious next step. We are officially registered for the NFBC Main Event, live in New York City on Thursday, April 2nd, $1600 buy-in, $100,000 grand prize, and note this, James McManus and Colson Whitehead: we’re using our own money. We’d like you, FanGraphs readers, to join us in our assault on what Norm Crosby would have called the pinochle of success in Fantasy Baseball. (Yes, we know that the buy-in for the World Series of Poker Main Event is 10k, and yes, we know that there are NFBC events with buy-ins of 10k and more, and yes, we could no doubt find evefn pricier leagues if we knew where to look. Maybe next year.)
Step 1 in our quest for immortality: Prepare for, and then engage in, an NFBC “slow draft,” in which 15 (or 16, assuming none of the other teams involves a folie a deux) lunatics have nothing better to do in January than draft—hell, know the names of—50 players apiece, with whom they will be stuck for the entire season. This of course requires exhaustive research and meticulous strategizing. Our draft position: 8th in the first round, and every round thereafter. Our preparation: encyclopedic. Our draft strategy: impeccable. First violation of our draft strategy: 8th position in the first round. Outcome of draft: troublesome. Details coming in our next post or two.
The Birchwood Brothers are two guys with the improbable surname of Smirlock. Michael, the younger brother, brings his skills as a former Professor of Economics to bear on baseball statistics. Dan, the older brother, brings his skills as a former college English professor and recently-retired lawyer to bear on his brother's delphic mutterings. They seek to delight and instruct. They tweet when the spirit moves them @birchwoodbroth2.
Good Luck. My friend has been trying to get me to play this for years and I keep passing. As one versed in economics and statistics, I have a hard time looking at the NFBC and not seeing the bad (aside from I most definitely would not win).
As we’re still in the offseason, it would be interesting to see a write-up on the economics of the NFBC from the reporting segment of FanGraphs. What are their revenues? What are their expenses? Is the 20% “vig” steep? How hard would it be for someone else to offer the same thing taking less of a cut?
For all leagues, from a fantasy perspective and winning the grand prize- it would be interesting to know if there’s an observed advantage to earlier or later (sharks? variance of information? etc)
can’t remember who did it but saw somewhere in the NFBC forums that draft timing didn’t have much effect on the finish NFBC leagues.
anecdotally, i’ve played (and am playing) in a bunch of slow drafts and there are advantages to both early and late drafts. i prefer the early ones because the lack of concrete information (final rosters, trades, position battles, etc) can be offset by drafting over owners who aren’t fully prepared. spring training injuries are the big downside though.
i would like to know why the birchwood brothers are assaulting a card game (pinochle) and not a high pointed piece of rock (pinnacle)
Welcome! I’m excited to have somebody well-versed in econometrics doing analysis for this site. Some articles here have tended a bit too “the Rsquared is good therefore causation” at times (and similar offenses), so I hope you guys bring a bit of rigor to your analyses.
I’m looking forward to reading how your draft went. I have very much enjoyed your writing style thus far.
I know I’m losing my sanity because this post got me super excited. Wanted to do a slow clap.
I choose to imagine the non specified ages above as Michael, 95 and Dan, 27.
They’re brothers so they’re somewhere around 61.
Yikes.
Nothing can get over Mike D’s head. His reflexes are too fast.
I can relate.
More than 20 years ago I was invited to play in a league comprised of Boston based actuaries. I was the only female and only non-actuary. My background: Financial and competitive analysis and tax law.
I was completely hooked and have been playing multiple leagues since.
Best of luck, Guys!! Look forward to reading your updates.
FYI the grand prize is $125k, not $100k.
NFBC is the place to play. I’ll be interested to follow your draft and progress. I’m definitely interested in the economics of fantasy so I look forward to reading your stuff.
I’m currently tinkering with a theory of my own that I’d be interested in getting an economist’s take on. It seems to me that as offense has waned and pitching has waxed in the real MLB, that pitching has, counterintuitively, become more in demand and more valuable at draft or auction. My observation is that the deflated number of home runs, RBIs, and runs has cause each hitter to look more like the next. There’s less deviation between offensive player values. Where on the pitching side, the exploding number of strike outs has meant that there is more variance from top to bottom of the pitcher value range. The market place hasn’t caught up to this change so hitters are still being valued according an older template of perceived value that doesn’t match up with the reality. That is, the market as reflected in ADP tends to be predictable from year to year in the basic array of hitters versus pitchers along the ADP continuum that has become fixed. Any merit to this?
The same Smirlock that was indicted for securities fraud?
http://nypost.com/2000/12/22/feds-finance-big-duped-clients-with-3rd-grade-forgery/
The FBI and the Securities and Exchange Commission say the now-defunct company’s $420 million fund lost nearly 20 percent of its value because of Smirlock’s loopy numbers games.
Have you ever met someone that you would classify as a success that writes about fantasy baseball.?
I’m excited to read well written English. Less excited to hear from a person who teaches Reagonomics to the gullible. I do , however, believe the goal of winning in a contest like fantasy balling is more suitable to the skills of a Reaganonomist than to an actual system of “economy” where the “eco” meaning is removed and leads to the “nomoney” future.