Innings Pitched Disagreements: Part 1

by
February 1, 2019

Yesterday, I examined some hitters with the largest plate appearance projection discrepancies using five separate sources. Today, pitchers take center stage.

I’m using the projected playing times from FanGraphs Depth charts and four other sources. Again, I won’t name them as I don’t want to debate the merits of each. My goal is to just find and evaluate different takes on the same players.

The differences aren’t nearly as drastic as the hitters, especially for the top arms. Most of the major differences involve around unknown roles and injury risks. I listed the top-200 at the end while the values for free agents and foreign signings may be off or missing. I’m going to focus on the biggest differences in some top-ranked pitchers.

Ross Stripling
Range (Max-Min): 67
Average: 112
Standard Deviation: 33

I’m not surprised one bit on Stripling. Unless the Dodgers get hit with a ton of injuries to their starters, he’s going to begin the season as a reliever or in the minors. He’s got the talent to be a top-20 starter but the number of starts he’ll get is unknown. Owners can draft him and hope his talent forces the Dodgers hand. The other issue is that he’s on the Dodgers who manipulate their roster to give pitchers scheduled days off via demotions or “injuries”. Good luck guessing right with him.

Michael Wacha
Range (Max-Min): 56
Average: 122
Standard Deviation: 24

Wacha’s playing time has been all over the place because of injuries going from 107 to 181 to 138 to 165 to 84 inning pitched(average of 135). The average value above is reasonable and being conservative on the total may remove some of his injury risk. I think the low values may be too low but it’s tough to have a total of over 150. I’d sit pat.

Alex Wood
Range (Max-Min): 52
Average: 155
Standard Deviation: 20

When I saw Wood made my criteria, I figured some source was on the low side but instead four were close with one near 200 IP. Wood has only been near 200 IP (189) once with 152 IP the past two seasons. One change for Wood is that he’ll likely only be a starter for the Reds and not a reliever like he has been with the Dodgers. Also, he’s only missed 35 days with injuries over the past two seasons, so he has shown better health. While I thought the 155 may be high, I might even push it up into the 165 range.

Robbie Ray
Range (Max-Min): 51
Average: 170
Standard Deviation: 21

One source has him over 200 IP with a career-high of 174 IP in 32 starts. The pitches needed for his high walk and strikeout rates will limit his innings pitched. The 170 IP total seems reasonable, but I may bump it down some.

Josh James
Range (Max-Min): 44
Average: 125
Standard Deviation: 17

I figured James would be higher on the list. He’s an outstanding pitcher on a loaded team with few starters with minor league options. His competition level and role are unknowns especially with the signing of Wade Miley. Now with James, some replacement value can be added to his projection which could boost his value a bit.

Jon Gray
Range (Max-Min): 44
Average: 164
Standard Deviation: 17

While some range of outcomes exists, the average 164 IP is completely reasonable (the reason I average them out). The high and low values seem out of place but they cancel each other out and a final decent projection emerges.

Marcus Stroman
Range (Max-Min): 43
Average: 163
Standard Deviation: 17

One source has no faith in him throwing many innings with his median value at 182 IP. Before last season when Stroman dealt with a shoulder injury and blisters, he had two straight seasons of 200+ IP. The hit from the one source seems a bit strong so I’ll go with the median value.

Luis Castillo
Range (Max-Min): 42
Average: 175
Standard Deviation: 17

His range is 14 innings once a source with 200+ innings is removed with a new average value of 168 innings which is fine with me.

Andrew Heaney
Range (Max-Min): 41
Average: 168
Standard Deviation: 16

After throwing 180 innings last season, it was a little surprising to see the 168 value. Looking over the estimates, one source has him at 140 IP. I’d definitely take the over with a value closer to 175.

That’s it for starters. The variation is not as much as I expected but some pitchers really stood out. I’m not sure where my analysis will lead me to Monday but here are my pitcher rankings with the projected innings pitched included.

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Top-200 Pitcher With IP Variations
Rank NAME Range Average Median Standard Deviation
1 Chris Sale 28 194 197 12
2 Max Scherzer 16 210 210 6
3 Jacob deGrom 10 208 209 4
4 Justin Verlander 15 202 203 6
5 Corey Kluber 18 209 208 6
6 Gerrit Cole 14 197 199 5
7 Carlos Carrasco 13 195 193 6
8 Edwin Diaz 8 69 71 4
9 Luis Severino 19 190 190 7
10 Clayton Kershaw 17 175 174 7
11 Blake Snell 10 186 186 4
12 Aaron Nola 26 195 194 10
13 Trevor Bauer 20 193 194 8
14 Kenley Jansen 8 68 65 4
15 Blake Treinen 10 76 78 4
16 Craig Kimbrel 7 63 65 3
17 Patrick Corbin 11 189 189 4
18 Aroldis Chapman 13 58 58 5
19 Brad Hand 9 68 67 4
20 Walker Buehler 37 166 163 14
21 Roberto Osuna 11 65 65 4
22 Felipe Vazquez 12 70 72 5
23 Zack Greinke 14 198 201 6
24 James Paxton 27 161 161 11
25 Noah Syndergaard 23 174 176 9
26 Stephen Strasburg 19 166 163 9
27 Raisel Iglesias 9 71 73 4
28 Sean Doolittle 16 56 58 7
29 Kirby Yates 6 66 65 3
30 David Price 22 183 181 9
31 Jack Flaherty 26 168 164 13
32 Mike Clevinger 25 182 181 11
33 Wade Davis 7 61 62 3
34 Chris Archer 25 185 187 9
35 David Robertson 4 66 65 2
36 German Marquez 14 189 189 6
37 Jose Berrios 11 189 189 4
38 Charlie Morton 21 154 154 8
39 Robbie Ray 51 170 162 21
40 Masahiro Tanaka 23 161 160 10
41 Mike Foltynewicz 28 181 181 11
42 Jose Leclerc 8 66 65 3
43 Rick Porcello 22 190 194 9
44 Miles Mikolas 28 189 189 10
45 Rich Hill 28 143 139 11
46 Jameson Taillon 19 186 189 7
47 Ken Giles 14 62 58 6
48 Kyle Hendricks 22 187 189 8
49 J.A. Happ 14 172 174 6
50 Jose Alvarado 11 63 63 4
51 Luis Castillo 42 175 173 17
52 Madison Bumgarner 27 190 183 13
53 Cody Allen 10 65 65 4
54 Corey Knebel 6 66 65 3
55 Zack Wheeler 39 172 174 15
56 Cole Hamels 23 178 174 10
57 Dallas Keuchel 13 192 194 7
58 Jose Quintana 24 179 185 12
59 Will Smith 21 58 59 9
60 Andrew Heaney 41 168 174 16
61 Mychal Givens 12 72 73 5
62 Nick Pivetta 20 163 165 8
63 Yu Darvish 14 136 132 6
64 Andrew Miller 7 61 60 3
65 Eduardo Rodriguez 28 150 151 12
66 Josh Hader 6 80 80 2
67 Drew Steckenrider 15 66 67 5
68 Carlos Martinez 25 167 166 10
69 Jake Arrieta 17 178 173 7
70 Matt Barnes 14 65 65 5
71 Kenta Maeda 12 132 131 5
72 Jon Gray 44 164 168 19
73 Alex Wood 52 155 147 20
74 Jon Lester 29 181 181 11
75 Archie Bradley 14 65 67 7
76 Shane Bieber 34 146 141 15
77 Shane Greene 3 66 65 1
78 Hyun-Jin Ryu 18 121 120 8
79 Collin McHugh 27 141 143 10
80 Arodys Vizcaino 14 57 53 7
81 Nathan Eovaldi 36 145 152 16
82 Tyler Skaggs 33 142 145 12
83 Kevin Gausman 16 179 181 7
84 Jakob Junis 28 177 182 12
85 Marco Gonzales 14 172 171 5
86 Joe Musgrove 27 157 158 11
87 Zack Godley 10 173 174 4
88 Dellin Betances 20 66 65 7
89 Seranthony Dominguez 7 67 65 3
90 Joshua James 44 124 128 17
91 Kyle Gibson 20 187 188 8
92 Steven Matz 21 152 148 9
93 Tyler Glasnow 37 134 140 15
94 Sean Newcomb 19 167 167 8
95 Sonny Gray 29 154 149 12
96 Mike Minor 40 166 168 15
97 Pedro Strop 7 63 65 3
98 Dylan Bundy 18 173 174 7
99 A.J. Minter 7 61 60 3
100 Michael Fulmer 21 169 174 9
101 Ross Stripling 67 112 97 33
102 Jhoulys Chacin 23 179 178 10
103 Brandon Morrow 17 47 48 6
104 Jordan Hicks 14 69 71 6
105 Matthew Boyd 28 172 170 10
106 Mike Fiers 27 161 167 12
107 Alex Colome 20 64 65 7
108 Tanner Roark 61 165 174 25
109 Ryan Brasier 10 64 65 4
110 Tyler Anderson 27 160 155 12
111 Julio Teheran 24 169 173 10
112 Michael Pineda 37 120 120 13
113 Anibal Sanchez 13 145 144 5
114 Jeremy Jeffress 18 65 65 8
115 Danny Duffy 40 162 157 16
116 Kyle Freeland 29 184 188 12
117 Wily Peralta 8 60 59 3
118 Chase Anderson 37 151 147 14
119 Kelvin Herrera 10 61 58 4
120 Alex Reyes 52 100 97 19
121 Jake Odorizzi 25 163 162 9
122 Vince Velasquez 41 135 124 19
123 Brad Peacock 71 90 76 31
124 Trevor Richards 13 132 131 5
125 Reynaldo Lopez 19 177 174 8
126 Marcus Stroman 43 163 160 17
127 CC Sabathia 36 132 124 16
128 Anthony DeSclafani 83 138 145 31
129 Zach Eflin 54 144 145 21
130 Jose Urena 23 165 162 10
131 Trevor May 15 62 58 6
132 Blake Parker 7 63 65 3
133 Jeff Samardzija 56 143 145 21
134 Chad Green 19 67 70 8
135 Jimmy Nelson 53 125 112 23
136 Dan Straily 35 161 156 13
137 Craig Stammen 9 75 75 3
138 Mike Leake 20 187 185 7
139 Keone Kela 11 59 58 4
140 Diego Castillo 26 63 60 10
141 Ryan Pressly 15 67 68 6
142 Derek Holland 43 153 147 18
143 Wade LeBlanc 41 141 132 17
144 Luke Weaver 61 139 135 22
145 Matt Strahm 27 79 75 11
146 Michael Wacha 56 122 121 24
147 Trevor Williams 35 159 156 16
148 Adam Ottavino 14 63 65 6
149 Taylor Rogers 23 63 66 9
150 Jeurys Familia 8 67 65 4
151 Trevor Cahill 12 116 116 4
152 Steve Cishek 22 62 64 8
153 Wei-Yin Chen 56 136 140 25
154 Dereck Rodriguez 56 152 160 22
155 Daniel Mengden 25 142 149 11
156 Robbie Erlin 45 111 107 17
157 Seth Lugo 28 73 66 13
158 Yonny Chirinos 65 106 114 31
159 Ryne Stanek 33 58 58 12
160 Hunter Strickland 21 52 51 8
161 Antonio Senzatela 48 151 157 19
162 Trevor Hildenberger 25 64 65 11
163 Lou Trivino 11 69 68 4
164 Jason Vargas 49 119 125 19
165 Corbin Burnes 60 105 110 28
166 Matt Shoemaker 36 110 111 14
167 Gio Gonzalez 110 124 126 53
168 Nate Jones 16 51 51 8
169 Brandon Woodruff 63 118 110 25
170 Joe Jimenez 14 65 65 5
171 Danny Salazar 39 70 68 15
172 Carl Edwards Jr. 15 58 58 5
173 Ryan Yarbrough 76 121 116 30
174 Will Harris 15 58 58 6
175 Andrew Suarez 75 132 139 33
176 Jose Castillo 18 55 50 8
177 Matt Harvey 101 144 146 36
178 Zach Britton 9 59 58 3
179 Ty Buttrey 14 64 64 6
180 Eric Lauer 24 132 134 10
181 Chris Devenski 33 55 58 13
182 Julio Urias 23 78 81 11
183 Hector Rondon 16 59 58 7
184 Caleb Ferguson 28 62 65 11
185 Ian Kennedy 33 143 145 14
186 Anthony Swarzak 8 60 58 3
187 Trevor Rosenthal 23 53 51 12
188 Joe Kelly 19 64 62 8
189 Sergio Romo 21 55 56 10
190 Tony Watson 8 63 65 4
191 Joakim Soria 7 61 62 3
192 Ryan Tepera 12 65 65 4
193 Yusmeiro Petit 32 75 72 12
194 Joe Ross 40 119 120 17
195 Ryan Borucki 61 133 131 25
196 Darren O’Day 10 51 52 5
197 Jace Fry 17 56 57 7
198 Hector Neris 21 51 53 9
199 Felix Hernandez 34 139 145 15
200 Seung Hwan Oh 7 61 61 3





 

Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.

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psychobunny
6 years ago

Joey Lucchesi has been left off the table. I can’t imagine the projections have him outside the top 200 pitchers.

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