Innings Per Start Analysis: Intro and Suspect Arms

May 4, 2020

I’m annoyed hearing and reading about how all pitchers will throw just as many innings as the aces in a shortened season. I could see the starts possibly being the same since the younger pitchers won’t wear down and need a phantom IL stint or start skipped. The deal is, if Justin Verlander and Julio Urias make the same number of starts, Verlander is going to throw a ton more innings, accumulating more Wins, and his elite rate stats will be better.

In 101 starts over the past three seasons, Verlander has thrown over 101 pitches 72 times and made it to 5 IP for to be eligible for a Win 95% of the time. Urias has never thrown over 100 pitches and in his starts and only reaches 5 IP in only 46% of them. The extra innings are going to be huge and help boost Verlander’s chance for a Win and boost the impact of his elite rate stats. I’m going to highlight the starters who can be counted on for a few more innings for an advantage in this shortened season.

I’ve backed off guessing what type of season is going to be attempted. Each week there seems to be a new plan that gets “leaked”. I don’t want my valuations to be influenced by some Florida-Arizona rankings but teams end up playing in their home parks. There is one known item, the season will be condensed and some pitchers won’t be on season-long innings limits. Also, a short second Spring Training may have some pitchers building up their arms into the season. For these reasons, I’m planning on targeting pitchers who have historically gone deep into games.

The following information is far from clean. The first reason is because of the opener so not all starts are created equally. Just because a pitcher starts a game, it doesn’t mean they’re going more than one inning. Besides just looking at innings per start, I included innings per game and pitches per game to help analyze some of the follower/second starters. Even those numbers are suspect as some arms were relievers at one point then became a starter.

The second issue is that some teams don’t let their starters go deep into games and/or piggyback starters. Owners should assume teams who limited the innings per start will just continue to do so. Enough background, onto the list. Everyone loves a list to comment on.

The following information, unless noted, are from the past three MLB seasons. This year will likely not be the season teams just start pushing starters deep into games. Instead, I believe most teams will pull out all the stops to try to win. As the Reds pitching coach Derek Johnson stated:

“I think [schedule length] could be really interesting,” Johnson said. “I think there’s all sorts of different combinations that you could look at here and they can all make some sort of sense.

“Being a former college coach, I look at that 56-game schedule and say it’s not really a marathon, it is a sprint. We look at Major League Baseball and it’s the complete opposite. We look at it like it’s a marathon and there’s this long period of time where we’re kind of grinding through things. This thing may look like a really short spring.”

If there ever was a season to try out a unique pitching strategy, this is the one with its short, compact schedule.

When given the opportunity to roster similar players, I likely to take the pitcher with a history of going deeper into games. Finally, here are all the starters going into the top-300 at NFBC and how long they go per start.

Start Length

Name	G	GS	IP	IP/G	Threw 90 Pitches	100 Pitches	Reached 5 IP	5 IP/G	5 IP/GS	6 IP/GS	Reached 6 IP	ADP
Gerrit Cole	98	98	616	6.3	93	63	95	97%	97%	79%	77	6
Jacob deGrom	95	95	622	6.6	86	70	88	93%	93%	83%	79	7
Walker Buehler	62	53	329	5.3	41	16	48	77%	91%	60%	32	12
Max Scherzer	91	91	594	6.5	84	68	86	95%	95%	85%	77	16
Justin Verlander	101	101	643	6.4	95	72	96	95%	95%	81%	82	20
Jack Flaherty	67	66	369	5.5	41	23	53	79%	80%	48%	32	22
Shane Bieber	54	52	329	6.1	40	28	48	89%	92%	71%	37	26
Mike Clevinger	80	74	448	5.6	62	41	64	80%	86%	66%	49	27
Stephen Strasburg	83	83	514	6.2	75	52	75	90%	90%	76%	63	28
Chris Sale	84	84	520	6.2	73	54	73	87%	87%	70%	59	35
Clayton Kershaw	82	81	515	6.3	59	25	75	91%	93%	86%	70	37
Luis Castillo	78	78	450	5.8	54	35	68	87%	87%	56%	44	40
Blake Snell	78	78	417	5.3	50	34	60	77%	77%	50%	39	44
Patrick Corbin	99	98	592	6.0	81	41	88	89%	90%	70%	69	45
Chris Paddack	26	26	141	5.4	11	0	20	77%	77%	38%	10	49
Lucas Giolito	68	68	395	5.8	54	35	58	85%	85%	65%	44	50
Yu Darvish	70	70	405	5.8	49	24	57	81%	81%	59%	41	53
Charlie Morton	88	88	508	5.8	63	33	78	89%	89%	60%	53	54
Aaron Nola	94	94	583	6.2	78	47	87	93%	93%	71%	67	57
Zack Greinke	98	98	619	6.3	83	39	91	93%	93%	78%	76	61
Tyler Glasnow	72	36	234	3.3	13	4	23	32%	64%	36%	13	61
Jose Berrios	90	89	538	6.0	71	36	75	83%	84%	63%	56	75
Brandon Woodruff	49	34	207	4.2	24	6	24	49%	71%	44%	15	78
Trevor Bauer	94	92	565	6.0	82	75	78	83%	85%	68%	63	80
Sonny Gray	88	81	468	5.3	51	29	64	73%	79%	56%	45	95
Frankie Montas	52	27	193	3.7	16	4	23	44%	85%	67%	18	100
Corey Kluber	69	69	454	6.6	55	36	62	90%	90%	80%	55	101
Mike Soroka	34	34	200	5.9	16	5	28	82%	82%	65%	22	104
James Paxton	81	81	447	5.5	59	39	61	75%	75%	54%	44	119
Zack Wheeler	77	77	464	6.0	64	41	67	87%	87%	69%	53	120
Lance Lynn	97	95	551	5.7	80	58	83	86%	87%	58%	55	121
Dinelson Lamet	35	35	187	5.4	17	6	29	83%	83%	40%	14	122
Zac Gallen	15	15	80	5.3	12	5	13	87%	87%	33%	5	123
Julio Urias	45	13	107	2.4	3	0	6	13%	46%	15%	2	126
Madison Bumgarner	72	72	448	6.2	59	34	69	96%	96%	79%	57	130
Max Fried	56	39	225	4.0	16	4	31	55%	79%	38%	15	135
Eduardo Rodriguez	86	81	470	5.5	69	49	71	83%	88%	53%	43	137
Carlos Carrasco	87	74	472	5.4	55	33	63	72%	85%	66%	49	139
David Price	68	63	358	5.3	45	21	52	76%	83%	59%	37	139
Hyun-Jin Ryu	69	68	392	5.7	36	14	52	75%	76%	57%	39	146
Kyle Hendricks	87	87	516	5.9	56	22	75	86%	86%	57%	50	153
Robbie Ray	85	85	460	5.4	71	41	69	81%	81%	46%	39	158
Matthew Boyd	89	88	491	5.5	67	30	69	78%	78%	59%	52	158
Kenta Maeda	105	71	413	3.9	26	9	51	49%	72%	32%	23	162
Carlos Martinez	113	50	372	3.3	41	20	44	39%	88%	64%	32	167
Lance McCullers Jr.	47	44	247	5.3	34	10	32	68%	73%	50%	22	172
German Marquez	90	90	532	5.9	65	26	76	84%	84%	64%	58	176
Mike Minor	125	60	443	3.5	50	28	54	43%	90%	62%	37	177
Ian Kennedy	115	52	337	2.9	35	17	38	33%	73%	46%	24	182
Sean Manaea	61	61	349	5.7	34	13	52	85%	85%	57%	35	183
Jake Odorizzi	90	90	467	5.2	70	36	66	73%	73%	37%	33	185
Luis Severino	66	66	397	6.0	52	34	58	88%	88%	61%	40	194
Jose Urquidy	9	7	41	4.6	1	0	4	44%	57%	43%	3	195
Luke Weaver	55	47	261	4.7	30	10	33	60%	70%	38%	18	197
Andrew Heaney	53	53	297	5.6	35	14	43	81%	81%	51%	27	202
Mike Foltynewicz	81	80	454	5.6	57	36	64	79%	80%	51%	41	204
Marcus Stroman	84	84	488	5.8	64	29	66	79%	79%	57%	48	207
Masahiro Tanaka	89	88	516	5.8	47	23	71	80%	81%	63%	55	207
Dylan Bundy	89	89	503	5.7	70	30	73	82%	82%	54%	48	213
Joe Musgrove	89	65	395	4.4	28	9	51	57%	78%	55%	36	216
Joshua James	55	4	84	1.5	1	0	3	5%	75%	0%	0	221
Mitch Keller	11	11	48	4.4	8	0	6	55%	55%	9%	1	228
Adrian Houser	42	18	125	3.0	4	0	9	21%	50%	17%	3	229
Ryan Yarbrough	66	20	289	4.4	18	4	30	45%	80%	55%	16	234
Caleb Smith	53	46	249	4.7	27	17	34	64%	74%	39%	18	234
Anthony DeSclafani	52	52	282	5.4	19	5	39	75%	75%	38%	20	247
Joey Lucchesi	56	56	294	5.2	22	7	43	77%	77%	32%	18	248
Jon Gray	77	76	433	5.6	52	21	61	79%	80%	55%	42	248
Garrett Richards	25	25	113	4.5	8	4	14	56%	56%	20%	5	248
Chris Archer	84	84	469	5.6	67	40	70	83%	83%	58%	49	251
Aaron Civale	10	10	58	5.8	4	0	9	90%	90%	60%	6	252
Alex Wood	67	59	340	5.1	27	5	49	73%	83%	56%	33	252
Sandy Alcantara	46	38	240	5.2	32	10	34	74%	89%	58%	22	266
Michael Kopech	4	4	14	3.6	0	0	1	25%	25%	25%	1	270
Yonny Chirinos	44	25	223	5.1	12	5	30	68%	80%	44%	14	274
Rich Hill	63	62	327	5.2	33	7	49	78%	79%	45%	28	277
Dylan Cease	14	14	73	5.2	12	7	12	86%	86%	43%	6	278
Steven Matz	75	73	381	5.1	45	25	54	72%	74%	47%	34	283
Dallas Keuchel	76	76	463	6.1	62	33	70	92%	92%	70%	53	286
Miles Mikolas	64	64	385	6.0	44	13	58	91%	91%	66%	42	287
Dustin May	14	4	35	2.5	2	0	4	29%	100%	0%	0	295
Jordan Montgomery	37	36	187	5.0	17	5	25	68%	69%	39%	14	296
Cole Hamels	83	83	480	5.8	66	29	69	83%	83%	60%	50	297

There is a lot to take in so I’ll start examining the data and dive in deeper in a future article. First, here is a look at some of the top arms who could disappoint. My main focus will be reaching five innings in order to qualify for a Win but innings per game also matter.

Walker Beuhler’s innings per game might seem to be on the low side (under 80%) but looking at just when he’s started a game, he’s gone 5 IP over 90% of the time and is in line with the pitchers taken around him.
Jack Flaherty falls quite a bit for me with the 80% 5IP rate over the last three seasons. I know he broke out last season, but the rate “jumped” to just 82%. I just see too many flaws in this pitching tier and will likely stay out of it.
I’m completely out on Blake Snell and Chris Paddack at their prices. Snell doesn’t go deep into games while Paddack never reached 100 pitches in a game last season.
Tyler Glasnow is a roulette spin and I never came close to owning before seeing these numbers. Instead, I’ll roster a stable hitter with my 4th or 5th round pick instead of hoping on Glasnow pulling it all together for the first time.
With Brandon Woodruff, he just transitioned to starting and his 2019 numbers mirror Snell and Paddack. He reached 5 IP at 77% clip and threw 5.5 IP/GS. If an owner is interested in the first two, why not grab Woodruff a couple of rounds later.
Some of Frankie Montas’s numbers aren’t the best because he spent some time in the bullpen, but his 85% clip of reaching the 5th IP when starting is respectable. I find myself gravitating to him more and more.
Historically, Sonny Gray had issues reaching the 5th inning, but just looking at 2019, the rate jumped to 87%. It’ll be interesting to see if he can keep it going or revert back to his historical norm.
A trio of 2019 Dodgers – Hyun-Jin Ryu, Kenta Maeda, and Julio Urias – have not been workhorses. I expect Urias to continue to have his workload limited. Ryu and Maeda are no longer with the Dodgers and could see their innings increase.
While Joshua James and Jose Urquidy have the talent to be productive, they might be limited in the innings they throw. Neither reached 100 pitches in the 11 starts between them. In the season’s sprint, they could definitely be slow off the start.
A couple of late-round picks I liked were Mitch Keller and Adrian Houser, but they reached the 5th inning in about half their starts. I’m going to need to consider several other options at this point in the draft.

BAL	CHW	ATH
BOS	CLE	HOU
NYY	DET	LAA
TBR	KCR	SEA
TOR	MIN	TEX

ATL	CHC	ARI
MIA	CIN	COL
NYM	MIL	LAD
PHI	PIT	SDP
WSN	STL	SFG