In Trusting the Entire Body of Work: The April Thumpers

Yesterday, I cherry-picked a group of hitters who suffered through miserable Aprils, only to return to form, or better, ever since the calendar flipped to May. It wasn’t the most convincing of arguments to trust the hitter’s entire body of work, but it did serve as a reminder that you shouldn’t make hasty moves based on such a small sample of performance. Today, I’ll discuss some hitters who had monster Aprils, but have predictably regressed to what we expected the rest of the way.

April Thumpers, Rest of Season Slumpers
Name April BB% RoS BB% April K% RoS K% April BABIP RoS BABIP April HR/FB RoS HR/FB April wOBA RoS wOBA Diff
Didi Gregorius 14.9% 6.5% 13.2% 12.4% 0.289 0.262 24.4% 9.8% 0.462 0.309 -0.153
Mitch Haniger 10.7% 11.1% 23.2% 22.1% 0.317 0.333 27.0% 13.0% 0.440 0.346 -0.094
Jed Lowrie 8.7% 11.5% 19.0% 20.3% 0.388 0.290 18.2% 10.9% 0.416 0.336 -0.080
Matt Davidson 14.4% 10.6% 31.7% 35.8% 0.289 0.331 52.9% 14.1% 0.413 0.311 -0.102
Ozzie Albies 5.5% 4.0% 18.9% 16.3% 0.298 0.294 20.5% 9.4% 0.410 0.307 -0.103

Heading into the season, I thought Didi Gregorius was overvalued and had less of a chance for a mid-20 homer total than most believed. But then April happened and I looked like a fool. Not only was he crushing the ball with a HR/FB rate double his 2017 mark, but he didn’t have to give up any contact (second lowest strikeout rate of career), while his walk rate also skyrocketed, which is saying a lot since his patience has waned to unacceptable levels in recent years. Basically, this actually looked like a legit major breakout. But it didn’t last. The strikeout rate remained sterling, but his walk rate dropped right back into the mid-single digits and his HR/FB rate has settled just short of 10%. So really exactly what I projected for him, outside a scorching first month.

Injuries cut into Mitch Haniger’s time last season, but when he did play, he displayed a nice mix of skills with 25/10 upside. When he came out of the gates super hot, it was easy to buy into him taking another leap forward. The power was fantastic, his walk rate jumped, and he wasn’t striking out any more frequently. But since that big first month, he has regressed to a version a bit worse than last year, particularly in his HR/FB rate. That’s not crazy of course, every hitter is going to bounce around their projections, but it’s disappointing for his owners as his HR/FB rate has been half his April mark.

Jed Lowrie was one of April’s biggest surprises, as his HR/FB rate nearly tripled from his 2017 and was representing an easy career best. Along with the home run power was a crazy inflated .388 BABIP. This coming from a hitter who has never posted a BABIP exceeding .319 in a full season! Solely due to his advanced age (34), we could have bet that he wouldn’t be able to sustain such a high level of performance. Sure enough, his BABIP has fallen so far that it has dragged his season BABIP right back to where it’s been since 2016. His HR/FB rate remained above his last two seasons, but at least he’s been in the low double digits a couple of times.

Man, Matt Davidson was a really fascinating name heading into drafts. While we stress that it’s a mistake to put any stock in spring training stats, strikeout and walk rates do have some predictive value. One of the biggest flaws in Davidson’s game last year was his ugly plate discipline marks with a tiny walk rate and huge strikeout rate. Unless you’re homering every other game, it’s hard to contribute positive offensive value. So there was some excitement when Davidson finished the spring with a 12.3% walk rate and only 26% walk rate. Hey, that’s some major progress! It’s certainly workable given his power potential. He became a trendy sleeper and sure enough, he was an absolute monster that first month. He even kept his walk rate gains and then managed to homer on every other fly ball….INSANE!

What I stupidly didn’t do was include the couple of games in March as part of the April stats. I should have, but that means these stats are missing Davidson’s three homer game. And yet they are still this good! Anyway, obviously no one is good enough to maintain a HR/FB rate above 50%, but Davidson looked like he legitimately transformed into an elite power guy, with the plate patience to support it. But since the beginning of May, he has walked less, struck out more, and his HR/FB rate has collapsed. That last part really surprises me as I could have easily seen him maintaining a 25%-30% HR/FB rate. Since he’s not much of a fielder, he needs to keep hitting to keep a spot in the lineup. That greatly elevates the risk.

***Warning, Paul Sporer, please turn back now.***

Though some saw it coming, I did not foresee the type of April that Ozzie Albies had for himself. I figured a bit of pop with a homer total in the low teens for the season, but most of his value coming from steals. Instead, he struck out more frequently and turned on the power boosters en route to a HR/FB rate more than double his 2017 mark. Keep in mind that at no stint during his entire professional baseball career had he posted a HR/FB rate above the 8.2% he posted during his 2017 Braves debut. That means he never displayed this kind of power before. Sure, scouts may have projected the power to eventually develop down the road, but so quickly?!

Since April, his walk and strikeout rates moved just a bit, but his HR/FB rate was cut in half. That’s more of what I was expecting at the beginning of the year! Unfortunately, given the considerable sleeper hype during draft season, many of his owners likely convinced themselves that this was a real dramatic breakout. Hey, I don’t blame them, as the kid was a top prospect and only 21 years old. But as usual, when a hitter is doing something he has rarely or never done before, regardless of whether he’s a youngster, in his prime, or aging vet, the odds will always be that the player regresses back toward his projections and/or his previously established performance level. Oh, and who would have guessed Albies would have nearly double the homers as steals?!





Mike Podhorzer is the 2015 Fantasy Sports Writers Association Baseball Writer of the Year. He produces player projections using his own forecasting system and is the author of the eBook Projecting X 2.0: How to Forecast Baseball Player Performance, which teaches you how to project players yourself. His projections helped him win the inaugural 2013 Tout Wars mixed draft league. Follow Mike on Twitter @MikePodhorzer and contact him via email.

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Cole
5 years ago

Haniger, Lowrie and Didi (up until the heel injury) have more or less been killing it since the ASB. Looking more like versions of their April selves. They’re WELL above average hitters right now, again.