How I View Starting Pitchers

One of the things I’ve repeatedly mentioned this draft season is the flat nature of starting pitcher values. For most league types, I keep arriving at the same general strategy. Since most pitchers project to provide comparable value, I need a plan to escape the herd.

As evidence that pitcher values are indeed quite flat, I present Exhibit A:

The above chart was hastily created using the output from the FanGraphs Auction calculator for a relatively standard league. I used the Depth Charts projections which are a combination of Steamer, ZiPS, and human playing time estimates.

Notice the range from around the 20th pitcher to the 70th. About $7 separates 50 pitchers. If we bulk up on pitchers in that cohort, we’re trusting luck and fate to guide out team to victory. I’m using three workarounds this season. They aren’t ground breaking, but they are necessary. They can be used in combination.

1. Acquire at least one elite pitcher

In this sample league, only a handful of pitchers possess values above $25. If I find the acquisition price for one of these studs to be rosterable, I’ll usually take the leap.

Setting ourselves up with an elite hurler puts us one step ahead of the competition. We’ll still need to fill out the roster around our stud. If I grab Felix Hernandez only to complement him with Aaron Harang, then I’ve probably wasted money.

League Observations: In many ways, it’s easier to draft top pitching in snake drafts. There is always a discrete price, whereas an auction for Clayton Kershaw tends to get out of hand. Even if you’d happily use the first overall pick on Kershaw, an auction can still take his price beyond a reasonable threshold.

I’m much less enamored with this approach in H2H leagues. I find it necessary to roster many more pitchers in H2H formats, although I usually use the same budget. As such, I wait for values.

2. Bulk up on elite relievers

This has long been a favored tactic of mine. If you miss out on the best starting pitchers (or even if you don’t), you can make up the difference with elite relievers. You can view a more detailed explanation of this approach here. I’ve included an example from that article (written in January of 2014) below.

	IP	W	SV	K	ERA	WHIP
Hernandez	204.1	14	0	216	3.04	1.13
Fister and Chapman	272.1	18	38	271	3.11	1.24
Fister and Doolittle	277.2	19	2	219	3.53	1.22

This is a comparison of Hernandez to two composite aces. The first duo – Doug Fister and Aroldis Chapman – wasn’t cheap, but it was still less expensive than Hernandez. The second is the bargain brand, combining Fister with Sean Doolittle. At the time, Doolittle was not a closer and Chapman hadn’t yet ascended to godhood.

Hernandez still offers obvious benefits by himself, but a composite ace approach does offer some advantages. The best case scenario is something like Collin McHugh with Wade Davis. Had you grabbed both players, you would have outperformed Hernandez without using a draft pick.

League Observations: Be aware of your roster constraints. This tactic is much easier in a league with many bench spots and/or a low innings pitched maximum. It also works best in roto leagues where there isn’t a built-in advantage to bulk up on innings. It’s better suited for auction drafts, but it also works in snakes.

3. Out-scout the competition

This is probably the riskiest approach. I love the tools we’ve developed at RotoGraphs, especially the work on Arsenal Score. I also watch a lot of pitchers and use the PITCHf/x tools at BrooksBaseball. The combination gives me a fighting chance to successfully incorporate uncommon data sources. By doing so, it’s possible to produce a top three pitching staff without spending big.

However, when you’re betting on the 110th pitcher to provide substantial positive value, it’s always a throw of the dice. I went hitter heavy in my home league, which led me to rely on my ability to identify sleeper pitchers.

League Observations: It’s necessary to take a portfolio approach with this tactic. If you need five starters to reach your innings cap, then plan to draft seven or eight. If your league is sufficiently shallow, you can also plan to use the waiver wire early and often.

A deep bench certainly helps. Draft type doesn’t matter, and the approach is probably safer in H2H leagues. It combines well with either of the other tactics discussed – especially the composite ace build. It’s also a natural complement to streaming, so it’s best suited to leagues without a taut transaction limit.