How a Tigers Trio is Taming Opposing Hitters

If there is such a thing as a flyball revolution for pitchers, it appears that Blaine Hardy wants to be a part of it.

The Tigers’ 31-year-old reliever-turned-starter induced grounders at a mere 33.0 percent rate last season, but this season, he has gone extreme with a 24.1 percent rate. That might not seem like a good career move for someone who coughed up seven home runs in 33.1 innings a year ago, but he is making it work. In his 20 innings to date, Hardy has allowed two homers and a .143 Iso (which is 23 points below the American League average).

Hardy has made two starts since being installed in the Tigers’ rotation (he also made a May 13 spot start), and he turned in good outings both times. Combining the starts against the Twins and White Sox, Hardy has given up three runs on 10 hits and one walk with 10 strikeouts in 12 innings. Owners have not taken much notice, as he is owned in two percent of ESPN and CBS leagues. Since he may just be keeping the mound warm for Jordan Zimmermann (shoulder), perhaps it’s just as well. Then again, if Hardy can build on this initial success, he may force Ron Gardenhire to find a way to keep him in the rotation.

In his limited time with the Tigers this season, Hardy is quickly establishing himself as one of the top pitchers in the majors at getting hitters to make harmless contact. Per xStats, he has a 37.0 percent poor hits rate (PH%), and of all pitchers with at least 20 innings, no one is particularly close to his majors-leading mark. Brad Keller (34.1 percent), Addison Reed (32.4 percent) and Wei-Yin Chen (32.3 percent) are the only pitchers within five percentage points. Hardy’s 41.7 percent popup rate is also the highest among this group, and his 6.7 percent high drive rate is nearly five percentage points below the major league average. More simply put, he has been superb at inducing the weakest kinds of contact while avoiding the most dangerous types.

One way Hardy has accomplished this is by increasing his slider usage from last year’s 13.9 percent rate to 34.9 percent, while decreasing his four-seamer rate from 44.9 percent to 36.9 percent. Sliders are generally a harder pitch to hit for extra bases, and so far this season, opponents are 7 for 23 on Hardy’s slider with no extra-base hits.

His changeup location has also been key. As the heatmaps below show (2017 is on the left, 2018 on the right), he has been locating the pitch higher and getting more popups with it. Hardy’s flyball rate on changeups has dipped slightly from 46.4 to 44.4 percent, but his IFFB% has jumped from 30.8 to 50.0 percent.

 

Hardy is not alone in having success with a high PH%. Matt Boyd has a 31.6 percent rate that is the highest for any pitcher with at least 100 balls in play. Like Hardy, he is benefiting from favorable popup (32.7 percent) and high drive (5.6 percent) rates. Only six pitchers with at least 100 batted balls have allowed a lower average exit velocity on flies and liners than Boyd’s 90.2 mph, and of the 133 pitchers who have yielded at least 25 flyballs, no one has allowed a lower average flyball distance than Boyd’s 286 feet (per Baseball Savant).

Despite a 3.00 ERA and 1.07 WHIP, owners have not been flocking to Boyd, as he is owned in 38 percent of CBS leagues and 15 percent of ESPN leagues. Owners may believe more strongly in Boyd’s 4.92 xFIP, but his penchant for avoiding dangerous contact should help him to maintain a below-average BABIP. His current mark of .241 may rise some, but his .244 xBABIP suggests that it may not grow by much.

Mike Fiers has also done a fine job of getting hitters to make inconsequential contact, posting a 28.6 percent PH% and 26.4 percent popup rate. However, he has also been victimized by a 13.2 percent high drive rate that is nearly two percentage points above the major league average. Fiers’ changeup is fueling both of these trends, as batters have increased their Iso on the pitch from .210 in 2017 to .256 this year, even while his IFFB% has soared from 16.7 to 42.9 percent. He may be a bit of a BABIP victim on his changeup, reflected not only by a suspicious looking .385 mark, but also by an overall .319 xOBA that is 32 points shy of his actual wOBA.

Because Fiers has a 15.2 percent strikeout rate, there is not much to recommend him in most leagues for now, even if he starts to allow fewer high drives. He could still be a good buy-low flier in deeper leagues, worthy of stashing in the hopes that he can build around his low PH%.

With three of the Tigers’ starters gracing the PH% leaderboard, one might wonder if there is some organizational emphasis on inducing low-value contact, but not everyone is on the same page. While Joe Jimenez (29.3 percent PH%) fits the trend, closer Shane Greene (21.9 percent) is below the major league average of 22.6 percent, and so is Michael Fulmer (19.4 percent). As he has done in each of the previous two seasons, Francisco Liriano (22.7 percent) is hovering right around the major league norm. Regardless of the impetus behind their improvement, Boyd and Hardy in particular deserve more notice from fantasy owners.