2022 Closer Trends
I included a few thoughts on the following tables, but it’s basically a data dump to be used for 2023 prep. I went through and hopefully determined, with the help of my Twitter followers, the initial 2022 closers and if they kept their job. Some information could still be off so let me know in the comments what needs to be corrected.
First off, here are this season’s initial closers. I included if they kept their job and if they lost it, why. Additionally, I tracked their team’s total Saves.
| Team | Eventual First Top Closer | NFBC ME ADP | Going into season | Last Until | Reason if Replaced | Saves | Team Saves | % of Team Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angels | Raisel Iglesias | 36 | One Guy | 8/2/2022 | Trade | 16 | 38 | 42% |
| Astros | Ryan Pressly | 55 | One Guy | 4/15/2022 | Injury | 33 | 53 | 62% |
| Athletics | Lou Trivino | 202 | Competition | 4/18/2022 | Injury | 10 | 34 | 29% |
| Blue Jays | Jordan Romano | 62 | One Guy | EOS | None | 36 | 46 | 78% |
| Braves | Kenley Jansen | 57 | One Guy | EOS | None | 41 | 55 | 75% |
| Brewers | Josh Hader | 22 | One Guy | 8/1/2022 | Trade | 29 | 52 | 56% |
| Cardinals | Giovanny Gallegos | 92 | Competition | 7/15/2022 | Poor Performance | 14 | 37 | 38% |
| Cubs | David Robertson | 353 | Competition | 8/2/2022 | Trade | 14 | 44 | 32% |
| Diamondbacks | Mark Melancon | 127 | Competition | 8/5/2022 | Poor Performance | 18 | 33 | 55% |
| Dodgers | Craig Kimbrel | 123 | One Guy | 9/23/2022 | Poor Performance | 22 | 43 | 51% |
| Giants | Jake McGee | 174 | Competition | 5/11/2022 | Injury | 3 | 39 | 8% |
| Guardians | Emmanuel Clase | 42 | One Guy | EOS | None | 42 | 51 | 82% |
| Mariners | Paul Sewald | 264 | Competition | EOS | None | 20 | 40 | 50% |
| Marlins | Anthony Bender | 248 | One Guy | 5/25/2022 | Injury | 6 | 41 | 15% |
| Mets | Edwin Diaz | 46 | One Guy | EOS | None | 32 | 41 | 78% |
| Nationals | Tanner Rainey | 313 | Competition | 7/13/2022 | Injury | 12 | 28 | 43% |
| Orioles | Jorge López | 434 | Competition | 8/2/2022 | Trade | 19 | 46 | 41% |
| Padres | Taylor Rogers | 95 | One Guy | 8/29/2022 | Poor Performance | 28 | 48 | 58% |
| Phillies | Corey Knebel | 93 | One Guy | 8/14/2022 | Injury | 12 | 42 | 29% |
| Pirates | David Bednar | 176 | Committee | 7/25/2022 | Injury | 19 | 33 | 58% |
| Rangers | Joe Barlow | 224 | One Guy | 7/13/2022 | Injury | 13 | 37 | 35% |
| Rays | Andrew Kittredge | 136 | Committee | 5/16/2022 | Injury | 5 | 44 | 11% |
| Red Sox | Matt Barnes | 156 | Competition | 6/1/2022 | Injury | 8 | 39 | 21% |
| Reds | Tony Santillan | 450 | Competition | 6/17/2022 | Injury | 4 | 31 | 13% |
| Rockies | Daniel Bard | 419 | One Guy | EOS | None | 34 | 43 | 79% |
| Royals | Scott Barlow | 115 | One Guy | EOS | None | 24 | 33 | 73% |
| Tigers | Gregory Soto | 138 | One Guy | EOS | None | 30 | 38 | 79% |
| Twins | Emilio Pagan | 427 | Competition | 7/1 | Poor Performance | 9 | 28 | 32% |
| White Sox | Liam Hendriks | 25 | One Guy | EOS | None | 37 | 48 | 77% |
| Yankees | Aroldis Chapman | 65 | One Guy | 5/22/2022 | Injury | 9 | 47 | 19% |
No major takeaways from this table except … the Twins had just 28 Saves.
And the next table just shows that some recent trends have stabilized.
| Year | Saves by Initial Closer | Team Saves | % Saves by Initial Closer | Total EOS | EOS % | Same Incumbent as the previous year | Same Incumbent % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | 927 | 1266 | 73.2% | 15 | 50% | ||
| 2014 | 746 | 1264 | 59.0% | 11 | 37% | 16 | 53% |
| 2015 | 737 | 1292 | 57.0% | 11 | 37% | 14 | 47% |
| 2016 | 797 | 1276 | 62.5% | 11 | 37% | 16 | 53% |
| 2017 | 668 | 1179 | 56.7% | 10 | 33% | 13 | 43% |
| 2018 | 759 | 1244 | 61.0% | 5 | 17% | 12 | 40% |
| 2019 | 573 | 1180 | 48.6% | 7 | 23% | 9 | 30% |
| 2020 | 202 | 422 | 47.9% | 11 | 37% | 8 | 27% |
| 2021 | 592 | 1200 | 49.3% | 9 | 30% | 6 | 20% |
| 2022 | 599 | 1232 | 48.6% | 9 | 30% | 6 | 20% |
| Avg | 660 | 1156 | 57.1% | 9.9 | 33% | 11.1 | 37% |
The total number of Saves is constant and few closers hold the job for a full season, let alone from season to season.
And finally, the numbers of pitchers reaching certain Save totals.
| Year | Players Getting Saves | Players Getting > 4 Saves | Players Getting > 9 Saves | Non Incumbent > 9 Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | 130 | 42 | 37 | 10 |
| 2014 | 134 | 49 | 39 | 15 |
| 2015 | 145 | 47 | 37 | 15 |
| 2016 | 148 | 53 | 42 | 15 |
| 2017 | 162 | 52 | 40 | 15 |
| 2018 | 165 | 59 | 43 | 14 |
| 2019 | 199 | 64 | 38 | 16 |
| 2020 | 131 | – | – | – |
| 2021 | 198 | 70 | 41 | 18 |
| 2022 | 222 | 64 | 35 | 12 |
| Avg | 163.4 | 55.6 | 39.1 | 14.8 |
Twenty-four more pitchers got a Save compared to last season. With the Saves getting spread out, only 35 pitchers (the lowest number recorded) accumulated 10 or more Saves. Just 18 guys had 20 or more Saves. If several fantasy teams are grinding for Saves, this is the reason why. This low number is also the reason fantasy managers will continue to spend up on closers.
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
Closers? Clasers! Clasers I say.