Hitters Who Played Through a 2023 Injury

With the season over, it’s to find out how hitters performed who didn’t let an injury heal and played through the pain. Whether these hitters cause permanent damage to their bodies or pick up bad habits, they continue to underperform their projections. Besides collecting the names myself, I’ve asked for some help (article and Twitter) for this past season’s list.

I first determined the decline in an article covering 2017 to 2019 and have continued collecting names and results (2020, 2021, and 2022).

Before getting to this season’s results, I needed to go back and clean up the previous results. The previous expected drop was a combination of missed projections and a comparison to the previous season. I took all the players and compared their actual OPS to their Steamer projected OPS and here are the results.

Historic Results for Hitters Who Played Through an Injury
Total 223
Average OPS Change -.042
Median OPS Change -.031
Avg Adj OPS Change -.039
Med Adj OPS Change -.028
# of Overperformers 72
# of Underperformers 151
Underperformed% 68%

The effect was more than previously stated. A 30 to 40-point drop in OPS is rather significant. Normally, a 20 points of OPS is equivalent to 5% points of wRC+, these hitters are expected to underperform their overall projections but 7.5% to 10%. It doesn’t mean the player is unrosterable. Instead, on average, a manager should expect most of them to struggle. And some will outperform, but it’s tough to know who.

Getting back to this season, here is how the hitters who played through a 2022 injury performed compared to their 2023 projection.

Performance of Hitters Who Played Through a 2022 Injury
Name Steamer Proj OPS Final OPS Diff
Amed Rosario .726 .683 -.043
Andrés Giménez .762 .712 -.050
Andrew Vaughn .780 .743 -.036
Anthony Rizzo .805 .706 -.100
Austin Hays .725 .769 .044
Avisaíl García .697 .556 -.141
Brad Miller .695 .668 -.027
Brandon Belt .749 .858 .110
Brandon Crawford .707 .587 -.119
Brandon Lowe .780 .771 -.009
Bryan Reynolds .808 .790 -.019
Bryce Harper .883 .900 .017
Byron Buxton .796 .731 -.065
Cal Raleigh .728 .762 .034
Charlie Blackmon .754 .803 .049
David Fletcher .670 .628 -.042
Didi Gregorius .670 DNP
DJ LeMahieu .755 .718 -.037
Eddie Rosario .698 .755 .056
Eduardo Escobar .705 .613 -.091
Francisco Lindor .754 .806 .053
Gavin Lux .741 DNP
George Springer .817 .732 -.085
Gleyber Torres .774 .800 .026
Isiah Kiner-Falefa .671 .646 -.025
Jake Cronenworth .734 .689 -.045
Jared Walsh .745 .494 -.251
Jazz Chisholm Jr. .768 .767 -.001
Jesse Winker .787 .567 -.220
Ji Man Choi .747 .624 -.123
Joey Votto .733 .747 .014
Jonathan India .743 .746 .003
Jose Ramirez .849 .831 -.018
Julio Rodriguez .825 .818 -.007
Ke’Bryan Hayes .720 .766 .046
Ketel Marte .773 .844 .071
Kevin Kiermaier .654 .741 .087
Kolten Wong .712 .519 -.193
Kris Bryant .812 .680 -.132
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. .765 .772 .007
Luis Arraez .764 .861 .097
Luis Robert Jr. .800 .857 .058
Luke Voit .720 .548 -.172
Martín Maldonado .625 .606 -.019
Max Muncy .790 .808 .018
Miguel Cabrera .666 .675 .009
Miguel Rojas .680 .612 -.068
Mitch Garver .715 .870 .155
Nelson Cruz .716 .681 -.035
Nolan Arenado .812 .774 -.038
Rafael Devers .861 .851 -.010
Ronald Acuna Jr. .857 1.012 .155
Salvador Perez .765 .714 -.050
Taylor Ward .785 .756 -.029
Teoscar Hernández .759 .741 -.019
Trevor Larnach .686 .727 .040
Trevor Story .735 .566 -.168
Trey Mancini .728 .635 -.093
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. .921 .788 -.133
Wil Myers .741 .541 -.200
Willson Contreras .758 .828 .070
Xander Bogaerts .773 .790 .017
Yordan Alvarez .937 .990 .053
Average -.029
Median -.018
Adjusted to Run Environment Average -.057
Median -.046

This season’s results are a bit higher than the historic values once the overall league context is taken into account. Nothing is surprising knowing the historical numbers.

With the historic values out of the way, here are the guys who played through an injury this season along with a link to where it was mentioned.

Additionally, here are the players who were pointed as playing through an injury but I couldn’t find any information on them. While I suspect some did (e.g. Alonso) or it was a flashback to 2022 (e.g. Ward and Naylor), I only add players where there is an actual quote about this season.

Hitters Who May Have Played Through a 2023 Injury
Name Injury
Josh Naylor Leg
Lars Nootbaar Groin
Marco Luciano Back
Masataka Yoshida Leg
Pete Alonso Wrist
Rowdy Tellez Forearm
Sean Murphy Hamstring
Taylor Ward Shoulder/Groin

New additions

Thanks for all the help everyone provided and please let me know if I missed anyone. I’m guessing news from about 10 guys will trickle in during the offseason.





Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.

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Broken BatMember since 2020
1 year ago

Jeff, always enjoy the thought provoking deep dives you bring. Thanks for all your work. New topic, I was wondering … is there a way to find out what % of individual pitchers threw shutout innings, and even perfect (3 up, three down)? Example: Pitcher A had 140 innings, how many resulted in zero earned runs scored? Maybe 40:of 140 were donuts. How would this compare to others? I am trying to see if a particular pitcher is prone to disaster innings, or allowing constant traffic in the majority of innings pitched.