Hitters Who Played Through a 2023 Injury
With the season over, it’s to find out how hitters performed who didn’t let an injury heal and played through the pain. Whether these hitters cause permanent damage to their bodies or pick up bad habits, they continue to underperform their projections. Besides collecting the names myself, I’ve asked for some help (article and Twitter) for this past season’s list.
I first determined the decline in an article covering 2017 to 2019 and have continued collecting names and results (2020, 2021, and 2022).
Before getting to this season’s results, I needed to go back and clean up the previous results. The previous expected drop was a combination of missed projections and a comparison to the previous season. I took all the players and compared their actual OPS to their Steamer projected OPS and here are the results.
Total | 223 |
---|---|
Average OPS Change | -.042 |
Median OPS Change | -.031 |
Avg Adj OPS Change | -.039 |
Med Adj OPS Change | -.028 |
# of Overperformers | 72 |
# of Underperformers | 151 |
Underperformed% | 68% |
The effect was more than previously stated. A 30 to 40-point drop in OPS is rather significant. Normally, a 20 points of OPS is equivalent to 5% points of wRC+, these hitters are expected to underperform their overall projections but 7.5% to 10%. It doesn’t mean the player is unrosterable. Instead, on average, a manager should expect most of them to struggle. And some will outperform, but it’s tough to know who.
Getting back to this season, here is how the hitters who played through a 2022 injury performed compared to their 2023 projection.
Name | Steamer Proj OPS | Final OPS | Diff |
---|---|---|---|
Amed Rosario | .726 | .683 | -.043 |
Andrés Giménez | .762 | .712 | -.050 |
Andrew Vaughn | .780 | .743 | -.036 |
Anthony Rizzo | .805 | .706 | -.100 |
Austin Hays | .725 | .769 | .044 |
Avisaíl García | .697 | .556 | -.141 |
Brad Miller | .695 | .668 | -.027 |
Brandon Belt | .749 | .858 | .110 |
Brandon Crawford | .707 | .587 | -.119 |
Brandon Lowe | .780 | .771 | -.009 |
Bryan Reynolds | .808 | .790 | -.019 |
Bryce Harper | .883 | .900 | .017 |
Byron Buxton | .796 | .731 | -.065 |
Cal Raleigh | .728 | .762 | .034 |
Charlie Blackmon | .754 | .803 | .049 |
David Fletcher | .670 | .628 | -.042 |
Didi Gregorius | .670 | DNP | |
DJ LeMahieu | .755 | .718 | -.037 |
Eddie Rosario | .698 | .755 | .056 |
Eduardo Escobar | .705 | .613 | -.091 |
Francisco Lindor | .754 | .806 | .053 |
Gavin Lux | .741 | DNP | |
George Springer | .817 | .732 | -.085 |
Gleyber Torres | .774 | .800 | .026 |
Isiah Kiner-Falefa | .671 | .646 | -.025 |
Jake Cronenworth | .734 | .689 | -.045 |
Jared Walsh | .745 | .494 | -.251 |
Jazz Chisholm Jr. | .768 | .767 | -.001 |
Jesse Winker | .787 | .567 | -.220 |
Ji Man Choi | .747 | .624 | -.123 |
Joey Votto | .733 | .747 | .014 |
Jonathan India | .743 | .746 | .003 |
Jose Ramirez | .849 | .831 | -.018 |
Julio Rodriguez | .825 | .818 | -.007 |
Ke’Bryan Hayes | .720 | .766 | .046 |
Ketel Marte | .773 | .844 | .071 |
Kevin Kiermaier | .654 | .741 | .087 |
Kolten Wong | .712 | .519 | -.193 |
Kris Bryant | .812 | .680 | -.132 |
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. | .765 | .772 | .007 |
Luis Arraez | .764 | .861 | .097 |
Luis Robert Jr. | .800 | .857 | .058 |
Luke Voit | .720 | .548 | -.172 |
Martín Maldonado | .625 | .606 | -.019 |
Max Muncy | .790 | .808 | .018 |
Miguel Cabrera | .666 | .675 | .009 |
Miguel Rojas | .680 | .612 | -.068 |
Mitch Garver | .715 | .870 | .155 |
Nelson Cruz | .716 | .681 | -.035 |
Nolan Arenado | .812 | .774 | -.038 |
Rafael Devers | .861 | .851 | -.010 |
Ronald Acuna Jr. | .857 | 1.012 | .155 |
Salvador Perez | .765 | .714 | -.050 |
Taylor Ward | .785 | .756 | -.029 |
Teoscar Hernández | .759 | .741 | -.019 |
Trevor Larnach | .686 | .727 | .040 |
Trevor Story | .735 | .566 | -.168 |
Trey Mancini | .728 | .635 | -.093 |
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | .921 | .788 | -.133 |
Wil Myers | .741 | .541 | -.200 |
Willson Contreras | .758 | .828 | .070 |
Xander Bogaerts | .773 | .790 | .017 |
Yordan Alvarez | .937 | .990 | .053 |
Average | -.029 | ||
Median | -.018 | ||
Adjusted to Run Environment | Average | -.057 | |
Median | -.046 |
This season’s results are a bit higher than the historic values once the overall league context is taken into account. Nothing is surprising knowing the historical numbers.
With the historic values out of the way, here are the guys who played through an injury this season along with a link to where it was mentioned.
Name | Location |
---|---|
Aaron Judge | Toe |
Andrew Benintendi | Wrist |
Anthony Rizzo | Concussion |
Austin Nola | Eye issue |
Bo Bichette | Quad |
Brandon Lowe | Back (chronic) |
Brendan Donovan | Flexor |
Bryan Reynolds | Back |
Byron Buxton | Knee |
C.J. Cron | Back |
Carlos Correa | Feet |
Chris Taylor | Knee |
Christian Yelich | Back |
Dylan Carlson | Ankle |
Gabriel Moreno | Shoulder |
Jake Fraley | Toe |
Jared Walsh | Vertigo |
Jazz Chisholm Jr. | Toe |
Joey Gallo | Leg/Hamstring |
Joey Votto | Shoulder |
Jonah Heim | Wrist |
Jonathan India | Foot (plantar fascittis) |
Jose Miranda | Shoulder |
Jose Trevino | Wrist |
Juan Soto | Finger |
Justin Turner | Heel |
Lane Thomas | Back |
Manny Machado | Elbow |
Mark Vientos | Foot |
Matt Chapman | Hand |
Michael Harris II | Knee |
Miguel Vargas | Thumb |
Nolan Arendado | Back |
Rafael Devers | Calf |
Ryan Mountcastle | Vertigo |
Tim Anderson | Knee |
Tomás Nido | Vision |
Tyler O’Neill | Knee |
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | Knee |
Will Smith | Rib |
Xander Bogaerts | Wrist (chronic) |
Yordan Alvarez | Elbow |
Zach Neto | Back |
Additionally, here are the players who were pointed as playing through an injury but I couldn’t find any information on them. While I suspect some did (e.g. Alonso) or it was a flashback to 2022 (e.g. Ward and Naylor), I only add players where there is an actual quote about this season.
Name | Injury |
---|---|
Josh Naylor | Leg |
Lars Nootbaar | Groin |
Marco Luciano | Back |
Masataka Yoshida | Leg |
Pete Alonso | Wrist |
Rowdy Tellez | Forearm |
Sean Murphy | Hamstring |
Taylor Ward | Shoulder/Groin |
New additions
Thanks for all the help everyone provided and please let me know if I missed anyone. I’m guessing news from about 10 guys will trickle in during the offseason.
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
Jeff, always enjoy the thought provoking deep dives you bring. Thanks for all your work. New topic, I was wondering … is there a way to find out what % of individual pitchers threw shutout innings, and even perfect (3 up, three down)? Example: Pitcher A had 140 innings, how many resulted in zero earned runs scored? Maybe 40:of 140 were donuts. How would this compare to others? I am trying to see if a particular pitcher is prone to disaster innings, or allowing constant traffic in the majority of innings pitched.