Hitters Available Under 40%/Cuttable at 60%+ #3

One issue I’ve had with pick up articles in the past is that so few ever recommend anyone to cut so which is arguably tougher than recommending who to pick. Sure, a player in question should probably be on a roster, but should it be your roster? I have a group of interesting free agents but also a player at each of those positions who you can consider cutting as well.

This article is designed mostly for 10- and 12-team leagues as a lot of these guys aren’t available in 15+ teamers and the recommended cuts are likely worth giving a bit more time to in deeper formats as well. I’m using ESPN’s roster rate for guidance.

Here are the picks for volume 3:

Available Under 40% | Cuttable at 60%+

• C Pedro Severino – 30% | Mitch Garver – 77% (the cut recommendations at this position are for 1-C formats)

I’m still trying to come to terms with the fact that the Orioles offense is 2nd in wRC+, but in the meantime I’m considering Severino a pickup. He had a mini breakthrough last year with 13 HR and 3 SB in 341 PA with his best work coming against lefties (.273 AVG, 8 HR, 109 wRC+) and he’s amped it up a level this year. Strong work against righties is driving his fast start as he’s hitting .350 with 2 of his 4 HR against them in 40 PA.

I bought in on Garver’s 2019 breakout. Obviously, I didn’t think he’d hit 31 HR per 359 PA, but I saw him remaining a stud hitter as part of that excellent lineup. Instead, he’s off to a nightmarish start with a .167/.280/.238 line that includes just 1 HR and 2 RBI. I’m not completely out on him and of course I’d rather not cut him, but it’s hard to hold a dead weight catcher in 1-C leagues when many viable options sit on the wire. Garver is striking out more, but his swinging strike rate isn’t up much (1 pt to 9%) and his chase rate is actually down 7 points to 13%. He’s swinging and missing more in the zone which is fueling his 36% K rate.

Again, these cut candidates aren’t really “must cuts”, but rather guys who could be let go if you’re offense is really struggling, and you need to cut some of the dead weight.

• 1B Dominic Smith – 12% | Eric Hosmer – 62%

Smith’s bat woke up last year with a .282/.355/.525 line in 197 PA across 89 games. He only played in two of the first eight games this year, but he’s started 10 of the last 12 and is crushing the ball again with a .262/.353/.667 line that includes 4 HR, 12 RBI, 7 R in 51 PA. He has 1B/OF eligibility and a lock on at least the strong side of the DH job.

Hosmer’s only played 8 games, missing time due to a gastrointestinal issue that is still giving him trouble since returning. He has hit well in those 8 games (.898 OPS) as his commitment to lifting the ball has yielded a crazy 61% FB rate (career 26%), but we need guys who are playing. This cut is less about Hosmer’s performance and more about this stomach issue that doesn’t seem to be going away and could continue to cost him time going forward. If you want to see this Hosmer’s flyball revolution through, maybe just reserve him and cut an outfielder for Smith.

• 2B Andrés Giménez – 8% | Ryan McMahon – 57%

Back-to-back Mets! The 21-year old prospect is hitting .286 with 5 SBs while manning shortstop regularly as Amed Rosario deals with a stomach issue. He had started three of four games at 2B prior to Rosario’s absence, though, so it looks like Gimenez is here to play. Nobody has more stolen bases than Gimenez as his 5 have him tied with Fernando Tatis Jr., Tommy Pham, and Austin Slater. (BTW, Slater is a worthy pickup consideration as he’s on just 15% of the ESPN Rosters).

Coors Field doesn’t just make everyone who plays there good automatically. McMahon leads the National League in strikeouts (28) and has an even worse wRC+ (72) than he did last year (88). His 24 HR, 5 SBs, and .250 AVG last year weren’t awful, but they were underwhelming and it’s all worse this year. I’m moving on. And I realize he falls below the 60% threshold, but his 57% roster rate needs to be much lower.

• 3B Rio Ruiz – 5% | Eduardo Escobar – 81%

The Orioles rule, I guess… Ruiz had some prospect hype in both the Houston and Atlanta organizations, but couldn’t find some regular major league time until landing in Baltimore. There was nothing in his 79 wRC+ in 413 PA last year that suggested an impending breakout and this may just be a fast start (5 HR, 142 wRC+), but he is barreling the ball and hitting it harder than ever so I’m willing to see where this goes if I need a power boost from an everyday player.

I don’t think even his biggest backers had Escobar hitting another 35 HRs or at least the paced equivalent of that over 60 games, but he seemed to have a solid floor to fall back on. Instead, he’s hitting .171/.227/.243 with just 1 HR in 75 PA. His strikeout rate has soared to a career-high 25% and his BABIP is down to .220. We saw the D’Backs offense get back on track over the last week capped with a  trip to Coors, but Escobar didn’t get the memo. He does have hits in seven of his last eight, but it’s six singles and a homer, yielding just a .219/.265/.313 line.

• SS Jake Cronenworth – 17% | Adalberto Mondesi – 88%

Cronenworth hit the radar while filling in for Hosmer and now he’s angling to swipe the 2B job from Jurickson Profar since Hosmer is back. He’s hitting .325/.341/.675 in 41 PA with games at 1B, 2B, SS, and 3B. He had 10 HR and 12 SB in 406 PA across 88 games last year at Triple-A. He’s a line drive machine and doesn’t strike out much. Sign me up!

Mondesi does have 4 SBs so I understand if he’s your primary speed and you need to hang on, but if you hit some other speed sources, then you can get rid of his terrible bat. He just doesn’t hit well in any way, shape, or form. He has a .236/.267/.333   line with a 31% K rate and 3% BB rate. Mike Matheny has him hitting lower in the lineup consistently now, too. He’s hit 5th or lower in 13 of his last 14 games.

• OF Robbie Grossman – 14% | Bryan Reynolds – 62%

With the strong side of the left job in hand, Grossman is off to a brilliant start with 3 HR, 4 SB, and a 194 wRC+ in 58 PA. He’s always had a strong plate approach with a career 21% K rate and 13% BB rate. This year he’s running a perfect 1:1 mark with a 16% mark in each (9 K & BB). He’s hitting the ball harder while putting it in the air and pulling it more than ever, all marks of power. The fact that he’s running, too, is what makes him particularly appealing to me.

At worst, Reynolds was supposed to be a batting average asset and last year he showed that it wouldn’t necessarily be an empty average (16 HR, .189 ISO). It’s been a brutal start to the season so far with a .179 AVG. He is walking a ton (15%) so his OBP is still a decent .303 (much better than Mondesi’s) all things considered. His line drive rate has soared to 32%, too, so that .270 BABIP will come up, but again in a season like this, it’s hard to wait for these things to turn especially from players who don’t have extended track records. I’d certainly keep Reynolds on my watchlist and consider re-acquiring him if and when the hits start to fall, but he’s a cut in shallower leagues, particularly on teams struggling as a whole.

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How quickly have y’all been moving on from struggling hitters taken outside the top 10 rounds this year? Do you find yourself struggling to give them up in 10- and 12-team leagues or have you adopted the burn and churn method that seems to fit the sprint season?