Hitter xBABIP Underperformers

It’s hard to believe that we’re now about two months into the season and this has been my first post on xBABIP all year. Well, here it is. While I developed my own xBABIP equation back in early 2015, the availability of new data since my formula was published allowed Alex Chamberlain to create an equation I prefer and use instead. Not only is the r-squared slightly better, but all the metrics are available here on FanGraphs. When I’m looking to buy low, the most attractive targets are hitters whose power is fine, but are simply suffering from an unfortunate BABIP. Below is that list of hitters.

For the first time, I have included all the components of the xBABIP equation so we can get a better sense of which component(s) each hitter is excelling in and where he could improve.

xBABIP Underperformers

Name	LD%	True FB%	True IFFB%	Oppo%	Hard%	Spd	BABIP	xBABIP	Diff
Derek Norris	19.4%	34.2%	5.6%	35.2%	36.1%	2.1	0.214	0.310	-0.096
Joey Votto	21.4%	28.2%	0.0%	25.2%	43.7%	2.2	0.255	0.346	-0.091
Kendrys Morales	15.2%	38.7%	1.5%	23.5%	35.6%	0.8	0.205	0.290	-0.085
Albert Pujols	16.8%	31.7%	3.6%	18.6%	35.9%	2.9	0.212	0.295	-0.083
Erick Aybar	20.0%	24.3%	0.9%	31.2%	18.4%	2.4	0.221	0.304	-0.083
Prince Fielder	21.6%	29.8%	2.0%	27.0%	29.1%	0.7	0.226	0.305	-0.079
Matt Duffy	23.8%	27.3%	0.6%	34.9%	27.3%	6.1	0.271	0.349	-0.078
Curtis Granderson	19.1%	39.0%	1.5%	14.4%	40.2%	4.6	0.236	0.313	-0.077
Yonder Alonso	20.5%	27.0%	4.1%	30.1%	33.3%	2.9	0.246	0.317	-0.071
Nick Ahmed	24.2%	25.0%	3.9%	26.4%	31.8%	3.3	0.256	0.324	-0.068
Matt Kemp	18.9%	42.1%	1.9%	23.9%	34.0%	1.3	0.231	0.295	-0.064
Buster Posey	21.3%	31.4%	1.3%	27.3%	39.3%	4.8	0.280	0.342	-0.062

Congratulations to Derek Norris who has the distinct honor of topping the xBABIP underperformer list. Norris’ batted ball type distribution is identical to his career average and he’s hitting for the same power as always. He’s actually going the opposite way at a career best clip, while his Hard% has surged. All this would seem to mean that if anything, his BABIP may actually be a bit higher than his career average. Nope, it’s the fourth lowest in baseball. Unfortunately, his existence on a pitiful Padres offense has resulted in just 10 runs batted in, despite five homers, so even with a batting average rebound, he’s still not going to be worth much in 12-team mixed leagues. I’m also not sure what happened to his plate patience, so he no longer gets a bonus in OBP leagues.

Yeesh, who would have ever imagined that Joey Votto would be slashing a sad .207/.330/.367 at the end of May?! Unlike Norris, all Votto’s skills have turned in the wrong direction — his worst walk rate since 2009, a strikeout rate spike to a new career high (though without a corresponding jump in SwStk%, which is a good sign), and his lowest ISO, now in the range of his career low set in 2014. Oddly, his Hard% is at a career high, which obviously doesn’t match with a near career worst ISO. His line drive rate is also at a career low, which is bad for BABIP, but the good news is that he has yet to pop up this season. So at least he has held onto that skill so far. It’s clear that this is a less impressive version of Votto than we have become accustomed to seeing, but that BABIP deserves to hop over the .300 plateau. There are definite warning signs though, so he’s not an all-out acquisition target.

It’s always a good sign when two metrics confirm that Kendrys Morales has much brighter days ahead. Last week it was Andrew Perpetua’s metric xOBA, and now xBABIP. Of course, BABIP is technically part of Perpetua’s xOBA, since that’s an all-encompassing offensive metric. Morales’ batted ball distance is also fantastic at over 300 feet, suggesting serious upside on that sub-10% HR/FB rate. He’s an excellent buy low and shouldn’t cost much, though the Util only position eligibility is annoying.

I keep historical xBABIP marks going back to 2011, and since that season, Albert Pujols has underperformed every single year. And since 2012, the underperformance has gotten more significant each season. It’s likely shift-related, as he has pulled his grounders at least 60% of the time for the majority of his career. Bad news: splits on splits such as Pull% on grounders is only available on individual player pages, meaning at this time, it cannot be incorporated into a new and improved xBABIP. Good news: I am confident the data will eventually find its way onto the leaderboards and I can assure you it will provide meaningful additional information to make xBABIP even better.

I seriously have no idea where Prince Fielder’s power went. But at least according to xOBA and xBABIP, his batting average should at least be above the Mendoza Line. He has never posted a BABIP below .274 and all his batted ball metrics look good and in line with historical levels. The increased strikeout rate and scary lack of pop would make me too nervous to try buying here, though.

I was amused during recent trade negotiations in my home league when my leaguemate made an offer for my Matt Kemp, and called him a .220 hitter. Sure, he’s hitting just .228 at this very moment, but we all know that doesn’t mean that’s what the hitter is. Kemp is doing his normal thing this year, though has hitting more fly balls than ever before, which might be hurting him a bit more than you would expect given his home park. xBABIP doesn’t account for park factors. The strangest part of Kemp’s statistical profile is that puny 1.9% walk rate. He’s swinging at everything this year and check out that bloated 44.4% O-Swing%! Perhaps he’s just making lots of bad contact with pitches outside the zone. Weirdness all around. Still, he’s only posted a sub-.300 BABIP once his entire career and sports a career .341 mark. I think we can assume that improvement is on the way.

It’s interesting when a .280 BABIP is low enough to still get you on the xBABIP underperformer list. But that’s exactly the situation for Buster Posey, whose batted ball profile is nearly identical to past years, but with a career high Hard%. Funny how that combination has led to a BABIP below .300 for the first time. His BABIP over a full season has never fallen below .312, which is mighty impressive. Aside from the crazy .368 mark he posted in 2012, he has been extremely consistent, posting marks between that .312 and .326 since 2010. If the Posey owner in your league forgets how valuable the top catcher is, pounce.