Hitter Strikeout Rate Improvers

Last week, Eno discussed swing rate and ground ball rate changers as we finally started hitting the stabilization points of certain offensive metrics. Now, many hitters have reached the point at which strikeout rate become reliable, which has been found to be at 60 plate appearances. Obviously, all else being equal, a better strikeout rate will lead to better results. More balls in play equals a higher batting average, more home runs, and additional opportunities to drive in and score runs, and steal bases. So who has improved their strikeout rates the most so far compared to 2015?

Strikeout Rate Improvers

Name	2016 K%	2015 K%	Diff
Brandon Belt	15.4%	26.4%	-11.0%
Nolan Arenado	5.5%	16.5%	-11.0%
Addison Russell	17.9%	28.5%	-10.6%
Austin Jackson	13.6%	23.9%	-10.3%
Kris Bryant	20.7%	30.6%	-9.9%
Eugenio Suarez	13.9%	23.6%	-9.7%
Wilson Ramos	11.1%	20.0%	-8.9%
J.D. Martinez	18.8%	27.1%	-8.3%
Joe Mauer	8.8%	16.8%	-8.0%
Nelson Cruz	17.1%	25.0%	-7.9%
Bryce Harper	12.3%	20.0%	-7.7%

Brandon Belt has finally nudged his SwStk% below 10% for the first time, while he continues to do his best Joey Votto impression spraying line drives and avoiding the pop-up. A fly ball rate rebound back above 40% paired with that drastically improved strikeout rate could be a boon for his power. Unfortunately, he still calls AT&T Park home, which is going to continue to suppress his home run upside. His career home HR/FB is a puny 7.7%, just about half of his away mark of 16%. If he could finally reach 600 plate appearances for the first time, this could be his most valuable fantasy season yet…if he could maintain at least some of this strikeout rate improvement.

What does Nolan Arenado do for an encore to follow up his 42 homer outburst last year? Why cut his strikeout rate by two-thirds, of course. Ready for this? Arenado sits second lowest in baseball in strikeout rate and has posted the seventh highest ISO. That’s Ted Williamsian. Funny though, he still can’t get that batting average out of the .280 range! His BABIP stands at a paltry .214. I wouldn’t bet against a 40-homer repeat any longer.

Though the results have yet to materialize, this is the type of growth Addison Russell supporters were expecting. Along with a substantial improvement in strikeout rate, he has also drastically upped his walk rate. He has hit a ton of line drives and hit a below average rate of pop-ups, yet his BABIP sits at just .233. I think he could have a breakout year, but still not be that far above replacement level in 12-team mixed leagues simply due to his placement in the batting order. But I am certainly becoming more bullish based on the early season skills improvement than I was initially.

You wouldn’t have a clue that Austin Jackson was making so much better contact if you just looked at his ugly .167 batting average. Heck, I own him in LABR mixed thanks to injuries and just assumed he has been terrible, without bothering to even look at his profile. And while his walk rate has been in free fall — it has dropped for three straight seasons, and his current rate would mark a fourth — this year would represent the first time his strikeout rate has dipped below 20%. It’s a bit odd though as his plate discipline metrics are generally in line with his history, so this smells like a fluke.

Wow, did anyone expect Kris Bryant to improve his strikeout rate this much?! He hasn’t sacrificed power either, though I would argue that we do expect a bit more of it, even last year. The good news is that he has managed to maintain all his underlying skills with the improved contact, so this could perhaps raise his ultimate ceiling, which is a scary thought.

Fewer strikeouts and more power for Eugenio Suarez? He never showed power anywhere close to what he has displayed so far this season. But Owen Watson described the hitting mechanics changes he has made since 2015, which might explain a lot of the power surge. As for the strikeout rate? His plate discipline metrics are slightly improved, but certainly not to the point that it should explain such a large improvement in strikeout rate. I would bet on regression on both the strikeout rate and power, but that still won’t prevent him from enjoying a breakout season.

All those extra balls in play for Wilson Ramos would be great if they weren’t all ground balls! A plodding catcher who possesses real home run power has no business posting ground ball rates in the mid-50% range. But that’s exactly what he has done every season since 2013 and it has limited his home run upside. One of these years, he’ll stay healthy and push that fly ball rate above 30% and he’ll hit 25 homers.

Last week, August Fagerstrom discussed J.D. Martinez’s apparently changed approach this season. He’s swinging less frequently and making more contact when he does swing. It has led to a better strikeout and walk rate, but unlike Bryant and Suarez, the change in approach has hampered Martinez’s power so far. His ISO, HR/FB, and Hard% have all tumbled. Of course, we can’t be sure just yet if it’s due to the change in approach or just a run of the mill slow start in the power department like any hitter could be experiencing. For fantasy owners, you’d prefer the higher strikeout, high power version to the lower strikeout, low power version, if those were the two options. But perhaps you’ll luck out with the best of both worlds.

It looks like vintage Joe Mauer is back after a many year hiatus. This version of Mauer was the one who struck out infrequently, while doing the Votto thing of lots of line drives and few pop-ups. At age 33, it’s hard to expect such a dramatic skills rebound to last, but since he has been at this level before, it’s not impossible to believe it can stick. A .320 hitting Mauer versus a .270 hitting Mauer takes a lot of the sting away from the fact that he only delivers 10 homers from the first base slot.

Does Nelson Cruz post a career best strikeout rate at age 35? Doubtful. And while his SwStk% is much improved, it’s still well above the league average, while his strikeout rate is well below. That doesn’t match, so expect the strikeout rate to head back up.

I had planned to list just 10 strikeout rate improvers, but I just had to include Bryce Harper at 11 to remind both myself and you all how absolutely amazing he is. If you really dive into his early season statistical profile, it’s rather crazy. He isn’t striking out and he owns an absurd 56.6% fly ball rate! That’s 20 points higher than his career mark. That’s one way to go for 50 homers.