Hitter Statcast xHR Overperformers — May 11, 2021, A Review
After reviewing the early season Statcast xHR underperformers yesterday, let’s now review the early season Statcast xHR overperformers today. Once again, I’ll compare each hitter’s HR/FB rate through May 9 to his mark over the rest of the season.
| Player | HR – Through May 9 | xHR – Through May 9 | HR-xHR | HR/FB – Through May 9 | HR/FB – RoS | HR/FB Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Castellanos | 9 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 28.1% | 21.4% | -6.7% |
| J.D. Martinez | 10 | 7.9 | 2.1 | 25.0% | 13.0% | -12.0% |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | 9 | 7.1 | 1.9 | 37.5% | 30.8% | -6.7% |
| Kris Bryant | 9 | 7.1 | 1.9 | 26.5% | 13.9% | -12.6% |
| Justin Turner | 7 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 19.4% | 12.7% | -6.7% |
| Aaron Judge | 7 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 30.4% | 27.1% | -3.3% |
| Buster Posey | 8 | 6.4 | 1.6 | 42.1% | 14.5% | -27.6% |
| Maikel Franco | 3 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 10.7% | 10.7% | 0.0% |
| DJ LeMahieu | 3 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 13.0% | 6.5% | -6.5% |
| Adolis Garcia | 9 | 7.5 | 1.5 | 32.1% | 16.9% | -15.2% |
Ten of the 11 batters did indeed suffer a decline in HR/FB rate over the rest of the season, while the one that didn’t posted an identical mark. Combined with yesterday’s results, it’s a pretty good indicator that although xHR isn’t perfect, taking action on the extremes (the largest underperformers and overperformers) is a winning strategy. On the other hand, three of these hitters had posted HR/FB rates of at least 30% (one at 40%) and seven of at least 20%, so we likely didn’t need a fancy equation to tell us that the odds are these hitters would regress over the rest of the season. This is especially true if also accounting for the hitter’s career HR/FB rates.
Nick Castellanos was the biggest overperformer and although he kept his HR/FB rate above 20% for the second straight season, it did fall enough the rest of the way to bring his season mark to just below his 2020 mark. He reallllllllly liked his home park, as this year, he posted a home HR/FB rate more than double his away mark. It will therefore be important to await his landing spot before projecting him for 2022.
An early J.D. Martinez home run tear made his owners think they bagged a big rebound at a discounted price. Unfortunately, it didn’t last, as his HR/FB rate was almost halved over the rest of the season and his mark merely finished in the mid-teens. It’s anyone’s guess whether he has at least one more 20%+ HR/FB rate season in him, but he was still plenty valuable this year, despite just missing 30 homers.
I dare Fernando Tatis Jr. to play on not one, but two, bum shoulders!
Kris Bryant’s HR/FB was nearly cut in half over the rest of the way after an early season mark that would have easily set a career high. It’s no surprise that it collapsed after moving to the pitcher friendly Oracle Park. I’m still shocked he has never posted a mark of 20%. He’s another free agent whose new team will help shape his projection.
Justin Turner was en route to a new career high HR/FB rate at age 36, but it didn’t last. His HR/FB rate slipped right back to his career average over the rest of the way. Even at his advanced age, he’s still showing no signs of decline, but that doesn’t mean that decline won’t begin in 2022.
Not surprisingly, Buster Posey was the list’s biggest rest of season loser. Obviously, no one expected him to maintain a 40%+ HR/FB rate, but it was pretty impressive that he still managed a mid-teen mark the rest of the way considering he didn’t play in 2020 and hasn’t even posted a double digit HR/FB rate since 2015. He goes out on a high note.
It was a majorly disappointing season for DJ LeMahieu, as he fell right back to his pre-Yankees days. At a significantly cheaper cost now, he’ll be an interesting rebound candidate, even if partially, as he still has that batting average cushion and runs scored potential.
Adolis Garcia was one of the early season’s biggest surprises, but he couldn’t keep it up. While he still showed power the rest of the way, he was a below average hitter. While he still sits atop the center field depth chart, the Rangers spending spree suggests his leash might not be very long.
Mike Podhorzer is the 2015 Fantasy Sports Writers Association Baseball Writer of the Year and three-time Tout Wars champion. He is the author of the eBook Projecting X 2.0: How to Forecast Baseball Player Performance, which teaches you how to project players yourself. Follow Mike on X@MikePodhorzer and contact him via email.
I really enjoy these retrospectives, would be great to see a similar analysis on the last month of the season to see who over performed / underperformed at the end of the season to inform 2022 fantasy drafts.