Hitter maxEV Surgers — May 16, 2022

Let’s talk hitter maxEV, which represents the highest exit velocity recorded by a hitter during the season. It could come on any batted ball type, though a high EV on a fly ball, or even line drive, is much more meaningful than on a grounder. Today, I’ll review the hitters whose maxEV marks have already surged versus 2021. The beauty of focusing on the surgers is that we don’t care about sample size this year. Last year, sure, sample size matters. The greater the sample size of balls in play, the better chance the hitter has of exceeding any particular EV. So the thinking goes that if a hitter has already exceeded his mark last year in just a month and change of balls in play, it could mean his power has increased. Let’s get to the names.

Who else is shocked to find Cristian Pache on any positive offensive-related list?! According to our Offense value calculation that is used in our WAR, Pache has been the fifth worse offensive player in baseball this year, among qualified hitters. And yet, he’s enjoyed the biggest maxEV surge! His HR/FB rate has crept into double digits, but his ISO has remained sub-.100, which is embarrassing. Since he also rarely walks and strikes out at a worse than league average clip, he’s just been brutal at the plate and has done little for fantasy owners. An xwOBA of .290 vs his .201 actual mark provides a glimmer of hope that better offense is coming, even though a .290 mark is below average as well. However, along with his defense, it would be enough to ensure he doesn’t get demoted to the minors.

I’m quite bullish on Keibert Ruiz, even though I failed to snag any shares. Anyone who barely strikes out at a double digit clip and has shown power in the minors intrigues me. Add catcher eligibility, and I’m in love. The increased maxEV hasn’t done anything for his power output yet, but it should. Add the insane 29.7% LD% that hasn’t boosted his mediocre .289 BABIP, and there’s all kinds of signs that this is a catcher you’ll want to own. Meanwhile, his .357 xwOBA is significantly above his .300 actual mark.

While everyone was in agreement that Wander Franco would become a superstar, some thought he might end up a better real life player than fantasy one without elite power or speed. Sure enough, he’s done a little of everything so far, which is a type of contribution package typically undervalued in fantasy leagues. That said, his maxEV is now quite strong and matches with a hitter that would typically post a far higher ISO and HR/FB rate. Like Ruiz above, I love Franco because of his contact ability and low strikeout rate, which is incredible given his age. He’s going to blow up at some point, it’s just a matter of what season that will happen.

Santiago Espinal has fallen into everyday at-bats, and has been quite solid, for both the Blue Jays and fantasy owners. However, his maxEV increase, while boosting his ISO and HR/FB rate, hasn’t been enough to make a massive impact. It started from such a low base, so he’s still a ways away from contributing positive value in home runs. It’s okay though, as he has also swiped three bases and has the batted ball profile to be a positive in batting average.

Wow, where is this coming from Brandon Drury?! The most glaring change is he’s become an extreme fly ball hitter, upping his FB% above 40% for the first time. It’s possible he has decided to pay for his membership into the Flyball Revolution. The strong start and the million hitters on the Reds’ IL right now has allowed him to play every day. For now, I’d just keep riding him, but just know that if he cools off, and that coincides with some guys getting healthy and returning, he could be back to a bench player.

Thairo Estrada has been starting most days at second base for the Giants, but like Espinal, his maxEV, even with the bump, still isn’t impressive enough to make a real impact. It’s a wonder he managed a .207 ISO and 22.6% HR/FB rate last year with such a weak maxEV! With a low FB% too, I wouldn’t count on him much for power. Instead, hope he keeps running and his BABIP improves to take advantage of his strong strikeout rate.

Woah, it’s not every day you find a guy already elite in maxEV improving it enough to make a surgers list, but that’s exactly what Matt Olson has done. Amazingly, he has now recorded the highest EV of his entire career this season. And yet, his ISO sits at a career low, as does his HR/FB rate! Go figure. If you look deeper, you’ll realize that his doubles are waaaaayyyyyyy up, so it would appear that some balls previous flying out of the park have instead landed for a double. Another odd thing, and something to monitor, is his FB%, which has plummeted to just above 30%. It’s the first time it’s below 43% in his career, which is a significant dropoff. You want a guy with Olson’s power to be hitting a high rate of fly balls. Though at least his BABIP has increased as his batted ball profile has reversed. Finally, it’s a good sign that he has held onto most of his strikeout rate gains seen in 2021.

Randy Arozarena was one of last year’s biggest xwOBA overperformers, and while he’s still overperforming, his skill set has taken a massive hit. It’s just been a slow start, but at least he’s swiped six bags for his fantasy owners. Again, it’s odd to see the maxEV up, while the power output has fizzled. But like Olson, his doubles rate is up, so he’s seemingly swapped some homers for doubles, though obviously not by choice.