Hitter Barrel% Gainers — Through Jun 19, 2023

Since 2015, for hitters with at least 200 PAs, there is a 0.80 correlation between Barrel% and HR/FB rate. Since hitting barrels is the underlying skill that drives HR/FB rate, let’s look at the gainers and see if their HR/FB rates have improved as well.

Though his HR/FB rate has remained stable, outside of his 2020 peak, Trent Grisham’s Barrel% has been all over the map. Oddly, this year that mark has moved into elite territory, and well above his previous high of 11% set during the short 2020 season, and yet his HR/FB rate sits at a career low.

His FB% has also jumped to another career high, so he should be really benefiting from that barrel rate, but he simply hasn’t. A quick check of his standard line clarifies where all his barrels have gone — as doubles! His doubles on contact rate has more than doubled compared to last year, so his barrels have been productive, but not flying over the fence. The odds are that his Barrel% is going to regress, but if it doesn’t, you have to think a higher rate of those flies are going to leave the park over the rest of the season.

Ever since his unbelievable 2020 performance, between the regular season and playoffs, Randy Arozarena has been a bit of a disappointment on the power side. But this year, his underlying skills have really surged. His Barrel% has spiked higher than what he posted during the 2020 regular season when he posted a 46.7% HR/FB rate, while his maxEV is at a career high.

With all this good news, it’s a surprise to see his HR/FB rate still just 17.8%. That’s a nice jump from his last two seasons, but a far cry from what you would expect from a mid-teen Barrel%. His FB% has surged to a career high, so he would really become a big home run contributor if his HR/FB rate rises to match his Barrel%. Aside from the power gains, his walk rate has jumped into double digits, while both his SwStk% and strikeout rate have improved to career bests. This looks like a true breakout.

I bet the offense-starving Athletics are wishing they didn’t trade away Sean Murphy! Finally, we find a hitter whose Barrel% spike has directly translated into a HR/FB rate surge. All of his other underlying skills are in line, so we see from his flyball Hard% that this is simply a matter of Murphy hitting his flies harder than ever before.

Catchers sometimes bloom late and he’ll be hard-pressed to maintain this high of a Barrel% the rest of the year, but given his former top prospect status and 60/60 Raw Power scouting grade from years ago, he looks rather legit.

While Michael A. Taylor has posted several mid-teen HR/FB rates and a 20% mark over a reasonable sample size as well, just once before has he posted a double digit Barrel%. It’s kind of surprising for a 32-year-old to suddenly enjoy a power surge, but perhaps this is intentional. His strikeout rate has spiked to a career worst, driven by his highest SwStk% since 2015. So he might be sacrificing contact for power. His walk rate has also plummeted to a career low, so this new approach has taken a toll on his plate discipline.

His flyball Hard% has increased from last year, but it’s not significantly higher than his career average. If this is indeed a new intentional approach, it’s barely paying dividends, as his wOBA is only marginally higher than his career mark and just a point over .300. He’s been running a lot though and has yet to get caught stealing, so he should still remain fantasy relevant in deeper leagues, but the shape of his performance could change.

For the first time, Austin Hays has pushed his Barrel% into double digits. He was close in 2021 with a 9.1% mark, but has never been higher than 5.5% over small samples during every other season. His maxEV has reached a new high, while his FB% has also spiked to a career high. However, his HR/FB rate has barely increased over last year and it’s still below his career mark.

As mentioned in Taylor’s blurb above, Hays’ strikeout rate has also increased, driven by a jump in SwStk%. Whenever I see this, I always wonder if the hitter has consciously changed his approach. I do think there’s some clear HR/FB rate upside here, but that increased fantasy value might be offset by a drop in BABIP, which sits at a career best and unsustainable .397. Hays was originally a promising power/speed combo contributor, but the steals never came. So the hope is his HR/FB rate jumps and he goes on a pace of well over 20 dingers over the rest of the season.