Hitter Average Bat Speed Risers and Fallers — May 12, 2025

Only a couple of days into the season, I shared the super early hitter average bat speed risers and fallers. Though bat speed does stabilize quickly, it’s still subject to small sample caveats. Now nearly a month and a half later, let’s revisit the metric, as the numbers now will give us a much better idea of which hitters have enjoyed sustainable bat speed increases or suffered from losses.

As mentioned in my original post, there was a meaningful 0.70 correlation between average bat speed and HR/FB rate among qualified hitters last year. So it’s definitely a metric worth paying attention to. Note that league average bat speed is around 72 MPH. Let’s start with the risers.

Nolan Schanuel leads baseball in average bat speed gain, but let’s hold the celebration. Last year, he ranked fourth worst in baseball, so really, it wouldn’t have taken him much to increase that bat speed. His 2025 mark of 68 MPH is still significantly below the league average, so while he has improved, it’s hard to imagine a real power surge coming with that sub-70 MPH speed. I do like all the other skills here, but you have to wonder if and when a power spike will come.

Brice Turang is in a similar camp as Schanuel. He, too, sat near the bottom of the bat speed leaderboard last year, and while he has meaningfully improved, he’s still far from power hitter territory. That said, the increased bat speed has likely benefited all of his results, including career highs in HR/FB rate, Hardit%, EV, maxEV, and Barrel%. Oddly, his ISO is actually down from last year, as he’s hit just three non-home run extra-base hits so far this year.

Anthony Volpe has increased his bat speed from below average to right around average. A power/speed combo platter in 2023, his power collapsed last year, so it’s a good sign to see the results return. While his HR/FB rate stands just below his career average now, in between his 2023 and 2024 marks, his HardHit%, maxEV, and Barrel% are all at career highs. Oh, and he’s also become an extreme fly ball hitter, which stinks for his BABIP, but gives him a good shot of setting a new career high in home runs.

Fresh off the IL, Jeff McNeil has been a new man! He’s been heavily reliant on BABIP to deliver batting average value in the past, so returning to his 2019 power level would be massive for his fantasy owners.

It’s rare to leave the Rockies and become a more productive hitter on the surface (non-park adjusted), so we wouldn’t expect Brendan Rodgers to suddenly breakout. But this bat speed jump gives us hope that maybe the one-time top prospect could eventually make good on his former promise. The HardHit%, maxEV, and Barrel% look fantastic, so it’s baffling how he’s managed just a 5.9% HR/FB rate and .088 ISO. The strikeouts are an issue, so perhaps he’s selling out for power. He doesn’t steal bases, so he really needs to become a 20-homer guy in order to become relevant in shallow mixed leagues.

There’s been a lot of talk about Jorge Polanco’s crazy start to the season, and the increased bat speed is one of the factors driving it. Of course, a 72 MPH bat speed is merely league average, so it doesn’t come anywhere near explaining his results so far. What’s interesting here is he’s not swinging and missing any less than in the past, and yet, his strikeout rate is about half his career mark. It’s therefore hard to believe the strikeout rate is sustainable, but he’ll definitely keep exceeding expectations for as long as he could maintain it.

Once again, Vinnie Pasquantino is having another season with underlying skills looking far better than the results. The increased strikeout rate and SwStk% are the one blemish, and he’s hitting even more fly balls at the expense of line drives. That’s also not great for his BABIP, which is already low. But man, how is his HR/FB rate not sitting in the mid-teens at the very least?! I’ll keep buying here until the breakout.

Nothing in Bo Naylor’s statistics seem to match with increased bat speed, though he has posted a career high Barrel% so far. He has recorded an extreme FB%, and that has come along with a low LD% and high IFFB%. It’s going to make it impossible to avoid hampering a team’s batting average, but the power looks pretty good.

Now let’s move on to the average bat speed fallers.

Jurickson Profar was suspended for violating the performance-enhancing drug policy and has therefore recorded only 16 PAs this season. Last year was his best season, so perhaps it was fueled by a higher bat speed than he had recorded in previous seasons and it would have proven to be a one-year fluke. Who knows, and it’s anyone’s guess how he’ll hit after returning from his suspension.

Josh Naylor enjoyed career bests in HR/FB rate and ISO last year, but both of those rates are down this season, along with his bat speed. Interestingly, his HardHit% sits at a career high, but his Barrel% is at its lowest since the short 2020 season. The good news while he deals with the loss of bat speed is his strikeout rate is down, walk rate sitting at a career high, and he’s already matched his stolen base total from last year. He should remain a decent fantasy bat, but you definitely shouldn’t expect him to go on a tear to bring him close to last year’s 31-homer pace.

You would never know that Francisco Lindor’s bat speed is down from his results, as his HR/FB rate sits at its highest since 2019, HardHit% just above his career average, and Barrel%, although down from his last two years, ranks fourth highest in his career. That all seems hard to do with reduced bat speed! He has improved both his strikeout rate and SwStk% though, so he surely looks like vintage Lindor. I wonder if the reduced bat speed will ultimately catch up or end up not mattering.

Orlando Arcia lost his starting job to Nick Allen, proud owner of a career .245 wOBA, so the braves must not feel like there’s any chance of a rebound off his weak 2024 output. The drop in bat speed won’t make it any easier to rebound if he does get another shot at starting.

It’s weird to see Juan Soto’s bat speed down this year and being exceeded by the likes of Mickey Moniak and Jarred Duran. His HardHhit% remains as elite as ever, and while his Barrel% is down from his other-worldly rate from last year, still ranks third in his career. But his HR/FB rate is the second lowest of his career, while his ISO is third lowest. You wouldn’t expect a 26-year-old to suddenly lose this much bat speed, so it’s really surprising to see his name on this list. All owners could do is hope the power numbers improve and he ultimately earns his hefty draft day cost.

My gosh, Mark Vientos makes the third Mets hitter on this short list! After a breakout 2024, he has been losing some playing time recently and is at real risk after Brett Baty’s recall of becoming a reserve. Who would have guessed that Vientos would be sitting with a sub-70 MPH bat speed through 148 PAs?! All his Statcast power metrics are down, while his HR/FB rate sits at just 10.8% and ISO at .144. Those are rates of the average Major Leaguer, not a power hitter. I don’t know what’s behind the bat speed decline, but it’s hard to believe his output will stay this meh all season. The tough part is how long a leash he’ll have, though a homer as I’m typing this certainly helps.