Hitter AB/HR Breakouts & Busts — May 20, 2025

Yesterday, I reviewed a handful of hitters whose actual AB/HR marks are significantly different from what ATC had projected during the preseason. What was driving the discrepancy between actual and projected? That was the question I was determined to answer. Since there are a lot of breakouts and busts from an AB/HR perspective, plus a number of names on yesterday’s lists had low home run totals, in which a difference in AB/HR would result in an insignificant change in home run total versus expectations, I’m going to do this again.

Today, I’m going to limit the AB/HR breakouts to those who have posted sub-20 marks.

After a breakout 2021, Cedric Mullins hasn’t been able to come anywhere close to replicating that performance, including failing to hit that AB/HR mark. This year, he has rediscovered that power stroke and is actually posting a career best AB/HR, even lower than in 2021. It’s been the combination of a jump in HR/FB rate to just below that 2021 mark, plus a surge in FB% to a career high. He now ranks fifth among qualified hitters in FB%. It’s anyone’s guess whether he’ll keep hitting fly balls at such an extreme rate, but everything else looks sustainable.

I was surprised that Wilmer Flores didn’t make my initial list, but that was partially due to the way I calculated the difference and then didn’t filter any further to weed out the low home run guys. Flores has been one of the season’s bigger surprises so far, as he actually leads baseball in RBI. How insane is that?! His stat profile is really bizarre. His strikeout rate has spiked to a career worst, while his HR/FB rate has jumped to a career best. One might conclude that he’s selling out for power. But, his HardHit% actually sits at a career low, his maxEV is down and well below league average, and his Barrel%, while the second highest of his career, is still below the league average. I don’t know how he’s managed the 17.9% HR/FB rate and his xwOBA suggests he’s been quite fortunate. There’s little chance he keeps up this pace.

Remember when Corbin Carroll hit just two homers over the first three months of last season? He then busted out for 20 over the next three months to finish close to his projected total after all. Welp, it looks like Carroll didn’t merely get hot to bring his season totals up to projected, but actually got better. This season, his strikeout rate has jumped, his FB% is up marginally to a career high, but mainly he’s nearly doubled his HR/FB rate from last year. His HardHit% has rocketed to rank 17th among 164 qualified hitters, his maxEV has jumped meaningfully, and his Barrel% has spiked, going from 85th among 129 qualified hitters last year to ranking 11th among the 164 qualified this year. As usual, there’s no way of knowing whether he’ll keep crushing the ball, but his results look absolutely legit so far. It’s too bad all his rounding of the bases will make it impossible to come anywhere close to 50+ steals again.

It’s all about an increased HR/FB rate for CJ Abrams, from just into double digits to 17%. His HardHit% has jumped to a career high, maxEV slightly higher than his hardest hit ball in 2023, but it’s really his Barrel%, which has spiked into double digits for the first time. He’s also riding a .350 BABIP, the first time his BABIP has even exceeded .291, so there are a couple of potential avenues for regression the rest of the way. Of course, the upside is a 30/30 season, or close, with a positive batting average for a change.

Freddie Freeman, are you human? His ankle isn’t even 100% and yet he’s second in baseball in wOBA and has posted the best AB/HR of his career! His strikeout rate has jumped to its highest mark since 2016, but he has offset that with a FB% tied for the highest of his career and HR/FB rate the second highest of his career. There isn’t much difference in his HardHit%, maxEV, and barrel% marks versus past seasons, so I wouldn’t bet on the HR/FB rate being sustained at this level. Of course, he also owns a .412 BABIP, which won’t last.

With only 40/45 Game and 45/45 Raw Power scouting grades, Kyle Manzardo wasn’t expected to be a big-time power guy, despite playing first base or slotting into the DH slot. Really, the only difference this year is a slightly more than doubling of his HR/FB rate versus last year, as his strikeout rate and FB% are similar. His HardHit% has increased a bit, while his maxEV is actually down, but his Barrel% is up into the mid-teens from just under 10% last year. All those fly balls are really boosting his home run total, but I don’t see that HR/FB rate lasting at those HardHit% and maxEV levels. I think it’ll be hard to maintain such a Barrel% without hitting the ball harder more consistently.

Wyatt Langford is the “everyone knew a breakout was coming” guy, and so far, it has come! He’s striking out a bit more despite an identical SwStk%, but has doubled his HR/FB rate, which isn’t surprising given last year’s disappointing single digit mark. The only real difference in his Statcast metrics is a surge in Barrel% into the mid-teens. This all seems pretty real given his minor league history, former top prospect status, 35/70 Game and 70/70 Raw Power grades, and Statcast’s xISO suggesting he deserves even better power results.

Taylor Ward has also joined the fly ball revolution, bumping up his FB% to a career high and above 50% for the first time. He has paired that with an increased HR/FB rate, driven by a career high HardHit% and Barrel%. All that extra power has crushed his BABIP though, so his wOBA is actually sub-.300 for the first time since his 2018 debut! I don’t think that FB% will stick, as a majority of the gains will likely turn into line drives the rest of the way.

The only thing that has changed for Cal Raleigh this year driving his AB/HR rate is his HR/FB rate, which has jumped above 20% for the first time. Interestingly, his HardHit% is actually down from last year, while his maxEV is the lowest it’s been over a season in his career. However, his Barrel% has spiked to an absolutely elite level above 20%, and he ranks second there to Aaron Judge (of course). I wouldn’t expect him to keep up this Barrel% given the less impressive HardHit% and maxEV numbers.

Wow, to begin on a sidenote, I can’t believe that Dansby Swanson is already 31 years old. I still perceive him as pretty young for some reason! Anyway, like many others, it’s all about an increased HR/FB rate here, as his strikeout rate and FB% aren’t too far off other seasons during his career. That HR/FB rate is significantly above last year and easily a career high. However, both his maxEV and Barrel% are in line with many previous seasons, though his HardHit% is at a career high, marginally beating out his 2022 mark. I don’t think he’ll keep up quite this level, but a mid-teen HR/FB rate wouldn’t represent too dramatic a decline in home run pace.

Now let’s move on to the AB/HR busts. This time, I’ve filtered for those projected for an AB/HR below 30.

Sure, Michael Conforto is striking out more than ever before, but it’s really about the tiny 5.3% HR/FB rate. He has never finished a season with a mark below 12.2%, so this is quite the fall. His Statcast metrics all look good, though, with a HardHit% that’s actually his highest since his 2015 debut, a maxEV of nearly 111 MPH and a Barrel% just below his career average. Statcast calculates an xISO significantly higher than his current mark, though it’s still a far cry from his career average and even rest of season projections. He seems like a reasonable trade target in deep leagues, assuming he doesn’t start losing playing time if he doesn’t snap out of his slump soon.

Carlos Correa has battled through both a dip in FB% to the second lowest mark of his career, and a single digit HR/FB rate for the first time. His HardHit% sits at the second lowest of his career, but still above league average, while his maxEV still looks fine. The big problem has been a career worst 4.2% Barrel%, so for whatever reason, he’s just not hitting the ball optimally for power. Whether he’s playing through a hidden injury (always a possibility for him!) or something else, it’s a weird start to the season. Since he doesn’t steal bases and wasn’t expected to be much more than a 20ish homer guy at best, the upside here just isn’t high enough to bother targeting him in a trade outside of deeper leagues.

Though his home park’s changes figured to help Ryan Mountcastle’s home run upside, I still shied away from rostering him given the Orioles plethora of talent. I worried about the potential loss of playing time if he slumped. Amazingly, he’s still playing every day, despite posting a .267 wOBA! With stable strikeout rate and FB% marks, it comes down to the 4.7% HR/FB rate. That’s quite shocking when looking at his Statcast numbers, because he’s at a career high HardHit% and maxEV, with a healthy double digit Barrel%. All these marks typically match with at least a mid-teens HR/FB rate. He still pulls his flies less often than average, but that mark has jumped this year to the second highest rate of his career, just behind his 2021 rate when he posted his career best HR/FB rate. I would typically recommend him as an obvious trade target, but again, I worry he could lose playing time before he rebounds.

Manny Machado’s FB% is down to its lowest mark since 2014 and his HR/FB rate is at a career low, in single digits for just the second time. Once again, this is surprising given the excellent Statcast metrics. His HardHit% sits at a career high, his maxEV remains strong, and his Barrel% is at the second highest of his career. What gives?! Oh, I know what gives — he stopped pulling his flies. He has never posted a fly ball pull% below 23.1% before this year and yet sits at just 15.6%. His average bat speed has dropped by just 0.2 MPH, so that’s essentially unchanged and wouldn’t explain the lack of pulled flies. I think the home runs will start coming shortly. Sadly, he’s not exactly a trade target since he’s hitting .317 thanks to a .371 BABIP and has already swiped seven bases.

Max Muncy’s FB% is down to a more normal rate after skyhigh marks the last three seasons, while his HR/FB rate sits in single digits for the first time since cups of coffee in 2015 and 2016 with the Athletics. Like some other names, the Statcast metrics look fine and dandy. His Barrel% is sitting at a career low, but still just into double digits and typically matches with a significantly higher HR/FB rate. The home runs will come.

Michael Massey hasn’t put his big FB% surge to good use as he has posted just a 2.9% HR/FB rate. It’s mostly been about a collapse in Barrel%, as his batted ball profile suggests perhaps his swing just isn’t right. With a .220 wOBA, he’s at risk of losing playing time, so he makes for a tough target in AL-Only leagues.

What has happened to Michael Harris II?! Since a strong 2022 debut, his wOBA has gradually declined, as has his ISO. This year, everything has crashed. His strikeout rate and FB% have been normal for him, but his HR/FB rate has dropped to just 6.3%, after mid-teens marks the last two seasons. His HardHit% is down, but still above average and his maxEV is fine (though down), but it’s the Barrel% that has really dropped from hovering around 10% to just 6%. You have to think he’s going to rebound, but with Ronald Acuña Jr. due back within days, there’s real playing time risk now.

Ian Happ has reduced his strikeout rate, but with it has come a single digit HR/FB rate for the first time. Nothing in his Statcast profile is significantly different, though his Barrel% is the second lowest of his career. I don’t see much reason for concern here, though the oblique injury clouds his outlook.

Has age fully caught up with Marcus Semien? He regressed last year and his offense has collapsed so far this year, continuing the trend. His strikeout rate has surged to the highest since his half season in 2014 and he’s posted the highest SwStk% of his career. He’s still hitting tons of fly balls, but they have become easy outs because his HR/FB rate has been cut in half to just 5%. Weirdly, his HardHit% is actually just above his career mark, while his Barrel% is the second highest of his career! Statcast’s xwOBA suggests he deserves the same results as last year, so it’s really been bad fortune rather than father time. He therefore makes for a potentially savvy target as it would be easy to chalk up his struggles to age and his owner might be willing to give him up cheap.

Christian Walker has dealt with the highest strikeout rate of his career, combined with a HR/FB rate that has dropped into single digits for just the second time. Of course, all his Statcast metrics look great, with everything in line with historical seasons. So I’d bet his power fully rebounds, but the elevated strikeout rate reduces his ceiling if that’s not improved upon.