Historic Season for Rajai Davis
Rajai Davis was enjoying mixed results this season as the Blue Jays’ center fielder before he endured a season-ending hamstring injury. He didn’t hit for average (0.238) or hit home runs (1), but he did manage to steal quite a few bases (34 in 338 PA). Taking into account how rarely he was on base (0.282 OBA), he was historically active on the basepaths.
To get an idea of how often he attempted to steal, I took the number of stolen base attempts (SB+CS) divided by the number of times he was on first (BB+1B+HBP). Not every time a player is on first do they actually have an opportunity to steal, but this combination does give a general idea of the number of chances vs. attempts. Here are the top players from 2011 (min 300 PA):
Rajai Davis = 70%
Jason Bourgeois = 54%
Dee Gordon = 48%
Eric Young = 44%
Davis was by far the leader in 2011.
His high number wasn’t due to being a pinch runner, either. Looking at Baseball-Reference.com, the 31-year-old was in only 13 games as a substitute with eight plate appearances and four stolen bases.
To put the numbers into perspective, here are the top five players since 1950 (min 300 PA):
Rickey Henderson (1982): 77%
Ron LeFlore (1980): 72%
Vince Coleman (1985): 71%
Rajai Davis (2011): 70%
Otis Nixon (1988): 70%
So what does Davis’ place in history mean for 2012? Probably not much if he isn’t playing. He may see his batting average increase to his career level (0.273), but Toronto’s outfield is crowded. The Blue Jays have their 2011 outfield mostly set with Thames, Rasmus and Bautista. Talk from the team implies that Davis may see some time in LF (Bautista at DH?).
What I would do with Davis in 2012 drafts:
1. Only draft him in a league with daily roster settings. He probably won’t get enough playing time for a league that uses weekly rosters.
2. Watch for the days he is playing and insert him if one of your other players has a rough matchup.
3. While not a huge split, the right-hander has done historically better vs LHP (0.292/0.350/0.411) than RHP (0.264/0.304/0.360). Use him against lefties if you can.
I would look to utilize him strictly as a platoon player to inflate your stolen base numbers. Take a late round flier on him and get some extra steals when the situation warrants it.
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
Was this written by a a kid? The egregious grammatical errors make me weep.
Why not join a Fantasy Grammar League? I can see you weeping with ferocious joy indeed!
Will the real “table” please stand up?
I’m standing at all times, I don’t fold.
Rajai owns himself in fantasy and needed the steals.
I reckon you have the equation flipped. Should be (Steals + CS) / (1B + BB + HBP)
Thanks, corrected.
Did he not get on base once on a fielders choice? How about getting on 1st when people were on base in front of him at 2nd, blocking him from steals?
I agree, you can easily be on first by a fielders choice or an error. At the same time he could be on first with a runner on 2nd making a stolen base much more unlikely.
fyi davis will get playing time in LF..
Eric thames and or travis snider will face righties and dvais will face lefties..
Why Would they dh bautista? He isn’t a great fielder, but has a great arm.. Where as thames is both a bad fielder and has a weak arm
Wow, are they trying to lose? The only thing I saw last year that was worse than Rajai’s numbers was his actual playing of baseball. I’m actually shocked that he hit as well last year as he did. I suppose if Toronto is going to play him despite all this, he’s a SB option in fantasy, but that’s such a complete fail for the Blue Jays if it happens.
Rajai Davis stole third a lot, so won’t this artificially inflate his percentages?
You are not accounting for Davis having the ability to steal, or increase the numerator, when he gets on base with a 2B, which is not in the denominator. Also, you don’t account for the fact that a value of 2 is possible in the numerator if a runner gets on and steals two bases (or 1 and an out at 3rd), which you’d only account for once in the denominator. Thus percentages are not limited to 100% – it could exceed this number.
I recommend you deal with steals of third separately. Go with SB+CS(of 2B)/Times on 1B and SB+CS(of 3rd)/Times on 2nd.
I could see you being reluctant to go to this extreme in accuracy though, because I’m not sure if you can get those precise numbers without pouring over game summaries.