Hell Is a Never Ending Ride on the Closer Carousel
When I did four drafts in three days this past weekend, I did them assuming Bobby Parnell, Jim Henderson, Casey Janssen and Nate Jones would be pitching in the ninth inning when their teams had a lead. Less than a week later, all of those guys aren’t pitching in the ninth for various reasons. Yesterday, Mike Podhorzer looked at what to with Henderson and Jones (short answer: hold them), and Eno Sarris looked at whether age has become predictive of closer changes (short answer: no).
Chasing saves is, unfortunately, one of the most important in-season fantasy activities. That’s especially true if you take advantage of the inevitable closer turnover and sacrifice closer stability in your draft for lineup and rotation stability knowing that closer help is the easiest of the three to find on the wire. But that strategy also requires you to sacrifice your sanity. That strategy requires that you follow @closernews on Twitter and enable that handle for text notifications so you can be the first to rush to the wire and add any reliever stepping into a closing role. It’s maddening when you find that someone has beat you to the Matt Lindstrom punch by what could not have been more than seconds. And it’s a never ending pursuit that requires more time on a day-to-day basis than anything else in fantasy baseball other than setting your daily lineups.
The rush-to-the-wire method of acquiring saves requires no skill. The person in your league that has the fewest real-life obligations is likely to have an advantage over the members of your league who have jobs that inhibit access to Twitter and/or your cell phone. To be fair, leagues employ waiver claim systems and FAAB systems to avoid that problem, but it’s not like those systems reward fantasy skill that much either.
A waiver claim system rewards whoever made an acquisition longest ago. Fantasy football works better for a waiver system where you have the option each week to add bench depth or hold onto the higher waiver claim to have a shot at a handcuff running back who takes over the job after an injury to the starter. But in fantasy baseball, acquisitions have to be made more often. In standard leagues across all major platforms, benches are simply to short to forego making acquisitions to hold on to a high waiver priority. If you do that so you can land all the replacement closers, you’ll be hurting yourself too much in the other categories for the saves you acquire to matter. FAAB management is more of a fantasy skill, but in leagues that don’t allow $0 bids, you can run into problems similar to those you have with a waiver claim system.
This crazy waiver wire game we play with closers is obviously a result of the fact that on most days you can’t acquire anyone who you can count on to give you a save any time in the near future. In this respect, saves are completely unlike any other category. If I wanted to acquire saves in my big money league that uses FAAB, I’d have to add Darren O’Day and hope Tommy Hunter is no good. But if I wanted to acquire a win or some strikeouts, I could add Felix Doubront for his start tomorrow. I’d be doing it at the risk of taking a ratio hit and/or not getting the win or strikeouts I desire. But at least I’d have the option. Similarly, if I needed some power, I could add Raul Ibanez, but I’d be doing so at the risk of taking a batting average hit. But again, I’d at least have the option.
With saves as a category, there is no option. But there’s a simple solution. All we have to do is replace saves with saves plus holds (SVHD). In my big money league I referenced, there are only four relievers available who are projected to have five saves or more this year. But in the one league I play in that uses SVHD, there are 71 relievers available who are projected to have ten or more saves plus holds. To acquire some or most of them you have to do so while taking on risk in the ratio categories, but you have the option just like you do with every other category.
One of these things is not like the other. We should get rid of it, replace it with the obvious answer, and save our collective sanity.
You can find more of Brett's work on TheFantasyFix.com or follow him on Twitter @TheRealTAL.
I, for one, enjoy the struggle of finding saves on the wire. Not a fan of saves + holds… seems silly to place the same importance on two events, one of which is ~3x more likely to happen than the other. In my mind it would be like combining doubles and HR into one category
Ive heard compelling arguments both ways, no doubt, but Ive yet to change my mind.
I especially like it when I snatch up 5-6 closers in a 12 team league and will hopefully pawn one or more of them off for a superior player when some owner inevitably panics at the end of May
The “+ holds” part is really just to give categorical contribution to middle-RP’s with great ERA/WHIP/K contributions.
It also allows you to ply with more than 2 RP spots (which I find incredibly boring).
It also combines well with switching the W category to QS. Now Starters and Relievers can only contribute to their respective categories.
Days of cheap 1 inning wins and the like are eliminated, which was really just lucky nonsense that no one was preparing for in the first place.
Ah, okay, I see what you’re saying. I guess I should have prefaced my stance by saying in my league there are 2 separate categories for saves and holds, as opposed to just saves.
I’m totally on board with replacing QS with W, but, again, in my league they are already 2 separate categories.
(I know, crazy scoring rules)
Saves and holds can work just fine as separate categories, you simply need to add more RP spots. If you had 2 for “just saves” then you should add at least another 2 for “just holds”.
I think it works better as a combined category so you don’t have to shoehorn your roster into having 2 closers and 2 set-up guys. You simply get 4 good RP, and no one has to roster Jose Valverde anymore 🙂
Other solutions:
Play in leagues with more bench spots. In one of my 12-team mixed leagues, Santos, Valverde, Lindstrom, and K-Rod were already owned.
Eliminate saves as category and use ERA as TWO categories.
“use ERA as TWO categories”
this.
is really stupid.
I just thought of the idea this afternoon as a way to get rid of saves but still have 5 pitching categories. Why is it stupid?
Atreyu, it’s stupid because if you win ERA you’ll win 2 categories automatically. It’s like saying ‘SBs are too hard to come by, lets just use HRs as a category twice’. What’s the point? Why not just use ERA as every pitching category then? imo use holds if you need another category
Eliminate saves and use Home Runs Allowed (or perhaps HR/9) instead. That way you’ve got five and you’re still counting something meaningful
Yahoo allows you to use Sv+H as one category.
This is the solution to what ails us.
My money league just switched to S+H this year too… It would be nice to see some work done on the inconsistency of holds (“8th inning with a lead” guy is not a role I’ve seen printed anywhere before), and how to properly evaluate or prepare for them.
I assume you have to devalue the “holds” contribution to the S+H category slightly just because of the lack of this pre-defined role in the bullpen?
“8th inning with a lead”-guy is commonly referred to as a “setup man”.
Right… (/facepalm) except that guy VERY often comes in with a tie game, and you get no hold for that.
It’s not nearly as cut and dry as drafting a “closer”.
This is why Hochevar can be one of the best RP in the game last year, but only gets 9 holds.
Sure, but closers often come in during tied ballgames in the 9th inning or in extras. Soria pitched the 9th in a tied game just yesterday and ended up getting the win when the Rangers scored in the bottom of the inning. Sometimes in extra inning games on the road, managers will hold them for a potential “save situation” (which is usually a bad idea, because the closer is often one of their best relievers, and you’re most likely to lose the game on a walkoff if you put in a worse reliever), but the point is, closers don’t exclusively pitch in save situations either. Same with setup men, but usually they’re the guys in when it’s the 8th and there’s a lead.
I’m not disagreeing with you, but your conjecture is largely meaningless. That’s why I asked if any work could be or had been done on the subject, not just what some random commenter thinks. 🙂
Fair enough, but I posit that holds are probably not that much less consistent than saves. In fact, if you look at the top hold-collectors over the past couple of years, it’s mostly the top setup men that you’d think of (Clippard, Peralta, Robertson, Rosenthal, Melancon, etc…) and probably some LOOGYs sprinkled in. The idea of combining them is that you make the category easy enough to be pretty easily available, and then you can focus on finding high performing relievers who will help in the other pitching categories as well, rather than trying to fret as much about who has a particular job title.
I think one of the most important points he made above was that when you play with only saves and one of those closers get hurt, there are barely any options available to you in a competitive league. You options are then further limited by your ability to bid/acquire the replacements vs all of the other managers. When you lose a player at any other position, there are considerably more options available to you… and whether the player plays or simply qualifies for the position doesn’t matter. With saves, you are either one of those 30 players, or you aren’t.
@Tom B-
thats true, but so what? Closers often dont come into the game *at all* unless their team has the lead.
THANK YOU FOR WRITING THIS
I’m so glad someone feels my pain with this crap. Like, seriously, I have to read Ron Roenicke’s and Robin Ventura’s minds?? I have to decide whether Jose friggin’ Valverde is worth adding to my team, simply because he’s going to collect some almighty saves? The “save” is a stupid stat in the first place.
Arthur Rhodes, pick him up.
My 2 cents is SVHD just makes fantasy less interesting. There are negatives to owning players like Lindstrom and the “don’t pay for saves” mantra at this point is way overdone.
I agree “rush to the wire” requires no skill but many of these current closer situations were foreshadowed earlier. Players like Santos, Lindstrom, Webb, etc should probably have been drafted given the respective situations going around each of those teams.
As for Henderson… yeah that’s a womp womp.
Saves + Holds is a chaotic mess that requires far less skill than identifying saves alone. Losing your closer is frustrating, but so is losing your key starting pitcher to Tommy John. It’s simply a challenge that comes with the game, and the inherent risk is why so much less money is spent on the pitching categories even though they’re clearly worth just as much as the hitting ones.
Except that there are 80 starting pitchers with jobs to replace your Tommy John case, and if you are lucky… 1 closer on your waiver wire.
Exactly, Tom.
Except that you’re conveniently neglecting to mention that you also need quite a few more starting pitchers than closers.
No. You’re simply neglecting to do the math jdbolick.
30mlb teams * 5 SP’s = 150SP’s
10 fantasy teams * 7 SP’s = 70SP’s
Even if every fantasy team has 8 SP’s, or you play in 12+ team leagues, you are still looking at 60-70 starting pitchers available on the waiver wire.
If there is more than 1 closer on your waiver wire, your league is probably either inactive or shallow or both.
Or you could draft a top tier closer and not have to worry about the waiver wire rush…
Oh my sweet summer child
Exactly what I thought when I drafted A.Chapman!
Chapman didn’t lose his job. He got hit in the head with a baseball. His job is waiting for him when he gets back in May.
Hahaha!! Yes, because elite closers never get hurt or lose their effectiveness. Please tell me this is just a troll.
You could start by naming one. None of the closers that lost their job this season are “elite” or came with a high price.
I love this strategy. When other people allow me to draft as many one-category players as they can, It lets me build a well-rounded team.
One league I’m in went further and did Saves and Holds as SEPARATE CATEGORIES. The bench isn’t even that deep either, so one of those cats likely needs to be punted. Others ignored holds in the draft, so I took McGee and Peralta and just plan on scooping up guys from the WW to close like Soria and Valverde.
Haha, didn’t notice your post before I posted mine.
Yeah, it’s an uphill battle trying to win both saves and holds, so it makes sense to go after the cheaper of the two.
Same in my league, saves and holds as separate categories…. There has been rumblings among the other members to combine the two, but I’m strongly against it.
If you play with enough RP spots (4+), what would be the problem with separate categories?
FWIW, I generally think H2H points leagues are far better than Roto (which solves the saves issue, since you can simply make saves worth fewer points), but I’m in one Roto keeper for a change of pace.
My league has saves and holds as separate categories, so I punt saves and win holds every year, thereby making the two categories a wash while the other 11 owners pay too much for “more valuable” RPs…
Saves + Holds seems to devalue saves to the point that being the first to go after a non-Kimbrel/Chapman closer makes zero sense. This creates even more of an imbalance in leagues, because the less-experienced/dumber owners are going to be spending too many of their resources chasing saves since they don’t know any better.
Depends on your preference. I hate h2h as a format. I like it for football and basketball, but for baseball, I prefer the roto format every time. I’ve been playing roto for almost 20 years and will still dabble in the occasional h2h league, but I just don’t like it as well. Just like I hate roto in fantasy football, lol.
“FAAB management is more of a fantasy skill, but in leagues that don’t allow $0 bids, you can run into problems similar to those you have with a waiver claim system.”
Can you explain what $0 bids have to do with it?
“leagues employ waiver claim systems and FAAB systems to avoid that problem, but it’s not like those systems reward fantasy skill that much either.”
I’m not clear why a FAAB system doesn’t “reward fantasy skill that much.” If you’re talking about identifying closers-in-waiting, then how can that research/prediction be anything other than fantasy skill? If you’re talking about bidding for a newly-appointed closer, then how can deciding a proper bid and managing your FAAB throughout the season be anything other than fantasy skill (at the very least, how is it different from deciding what you’ll bid on a player in your auction?)?
Pretty sure he meant if you can’t place $0 bids on RP’s than you can blow through your FAAB budget searching for closers, rather than shoring up the rest of your team.
Yes. This is the way it should be. No more $25 Closers, and quality arms sitting in free agency have some value.
Reading through the comments, people are really emotional about this. It’s like that year that they won their league after luckily finding a couple of cheap arms that replaced “sure-thing” Closers would be completely negated if the rules were updated to make dumb luck less of a factor.
Have been using saves and holds as a separate stat category for 14 years in one league. In another we use reliever effectiveness (S+H – BS) which is really nice. In my tradition league we use only saves and the change to S+H was voted down 6-14 as we require a 75% vote to change core settings such as stat categories, active roster spots and weekly lineup changes as these are core to the league.
In saves And holds we use 5SP and 6RP spots. There ain’t nary a good RP on the waiver wire when you go looking as most are roster by opening day or soon after. Also an RP that qualifies as SP is more valuable as you can start 7 RP almost every day. Obviously LOOGy are very valuable too. This is just like the roster set up in real baseball where setup men and LOOGys are very valuable to an MLB team but useless in traditional roto. I do like that I have leagues with different settings though.
Is it bizarre I actually enjoy the madcap Closer rush? It’s kinda fun. Not exactly skillful, I’ll agree, but fun.
Agreed, there is a certain “rush” you get from getting that new closer or realizing the you already have him that is not there in holds leagues. I like that. It is balanced out by the sick feeling in your stomach though, when you realized your $21 closer just lost his job. But overall I am happy to be in leagues with all three setting formats.