Heaters That Crushed in 2021

As baseball history keeps telling us, a pitcher’s ultimate success often starts with the heater, providing a base of core strength for their pitch-mix body on which the glamor muscles of the breaking stuff can better be supported.

With that in mind, let’s look at the best fastballs from starters in 2022 according to Run-Value (per 100 pitches) before looking at three possible draft-day bargains. While Run Value is by no means the end-all measurement of overall quality, (nor necessarily predictive), it does give us a solid snapshot of the overall results that a pitch returned while sending up flares for where further investigation might be warranted.

Below are all of the fastballs (min n = 300) in 2021 that finished with less than or equal to a -1.0 RV/100. Also included are xwOBA, xwOBA (on contact), Groundball%, CSW% (called strikes + swinging strikes), Swinging-Strike%, and Whiff%. As a quick refresher, SwStr% is the number of whiffs divided by the number of pitches thrown (individual pitch, not total), while Whiff% is the number of whiffs divided by the number of swings. Whiff% tells you one important result (I got a whiff!), but SwStr% gives you two (I induced a swing and a whiff!). Both can be useful but are saying different things.

 

Ranger Suárez, PHI, (152 ADP, SP 46)

Sinker, -3.0 RV/100 (1st by pitch), Four-Seamer, -2.3 RV/100 (1st by pitch)

It doesn’t answer every question about whether or not Ranger Suárez will continue his dominant transition to starting but having two premium fastballs is a nice base to bet on. As is a 1.51 ERA (2.35 FIP) over 12 starts and 65.2 IP in 2021 after Suárez spent May-July in the bullpen, posting a 1.12 ERA (3.32 FIP) over 40.1 IP.

He had two pitches make our leaderboard but it was the sinker that became the workhouse of his 2021 breakout – and the leader in our RV/100 clubhouse – using it to induce a 66.7% GB% (seventh-highest rate among qualified starters), while locking up righties on the inside.

Just ask J.D.

Suárez had just 67.2 IP in the majors prior to last season (and only 4 IP in 2020) but the change in his pitch mix is clear:

Along with the elite groundball rate, Suárez’s sinker had just a .244 xwOBA against it (second-lowest) and also got more swings and misses in the second half (a majority of which was as a starter), going from a 5.7 SwStr% and 13.7 Whiff% to a 10.1% SwStr% and 21.4% Whiff%.

While you’re not necessarily looking for them, getting a little extra whiff gravy with your sinker is always nice:

How his sinker and four-seamer play off of each is a seam-shifted discussion for another day but I believe heavily in them as a strong base and love how they work with Suárez’s overall pitch mix. While there is some worry in projecting 160+ IP for someone who has a max of 106 IP, his groundball weapons (and the low-stress innings that hopefully come with them) make me more confident.

At his current draft price, Suárez could end up being one of 2022’s best bargains.

Luis Garcia, HOU (157 ADP, SP 48)

Cutter, -2.0 RV/100 (2nd by pitch)

After just throwing twenty of them in 2020, Garcia’s cutter arrived in 2021, with only Aaron Civale’s returning a better RV/100. But the .223 wOBA against it was first among qualified starters, as was a .230 xwOBA. And while its 42.7 GB% wasn’t impressive, things were much better in the second half, rising from a 33.3% GB% to a 50.0% GB%.

The increased groundballs were nice but what makes Garcia’s cutter really shine is its primetime whiffery. It’s 23.4% SwStr% was not just first in the majors, it was nearly seven points better than the 16.8% SwStr% put up by Corbin Burnes’ in second place.

When it came to finishing batters off, Garcia’s cutter lived down and to his glove-side. Of his 167 K last season, 60 batters were finished off by whiffing at a cutter – and 43 of those came in the zone 14.

For further illustration, I recommend the modern retelling of Mr. Wendal; a tale of flail, told in three parts.

Here, have a cutter, Mr. Wendle:

In fact, no brotherman here, have two:

Actually, have three. Because Mr. Wendle’s soul was so wrecked by cutters in his first two at-bats, that he was willing to offer at this one in his third – and wasn’t very pleased with himself:

We could guess at what he’s muttering at the end but this is a family-friendly website.

The slipperiness of Garcia’s cutter illustrated above isn’t much of a mystery given its movement on the horizontal plane, breaking 5.7 inches in 2021 and giving him 2.6 more inches of break compared to cutters thrown at a similar velocity/extension – or 84% above average.

That kind of break pairs nicely with a four-seamer that gets premium rise, as well as a changeup that also gets above-average break and a slider that gets elite movement on both planes. If you’re counting along at home, that’s four pitches with excellent (and complimentary) movement profiles on a team that excels at maximizing pitch mixes. Hopefully, the Astros can help get it dialed in against left-handers, against whom Garcia had a 4.55 FIP and allowed a .353 wOBA in 2021, compared to a 2.81 FIP and .241 wOBA vs RHH.

But knowing what we know about how nasty his cutter has gotten, the movement profiles of his other pitches seem like they could be very complimentary in better neutralizing lefties and give Garcia a better chance to keep turning the lineup over.

Garcia is developing a nasty out-pitch and should again be backed by an excellent bullpen and offense, which should put him in line for plenty of wins – especially if a continued ascension of the cutter helps get him deeper in his starts. And after 155 IP in 2021, there shouldn’t be many restrictions on the soon-to-be 25-year-old right-hander.

Given all the goodies, a post-150 ADP sounds delicious.

Drew Rasmussen, TB (247 ADP, SP 73)

Four-seamer, -1.8 RV/100 (sixth by pitch)

Acquired from the Brewers as part of the Wily Adames trade, Rasmussen only pitched 75 IP in 2021, 50 IP of which came in the second half, with his four-seamer over that time returning a  -2.7 RV/100 that was second only to Ranger Suárez. Averaging 97.1 mph and 2437 rpm (14th-highest), while getting 9% more vertical movement to similar fastballs, the heater burned bright in 2021.

Please rise:

It’s easy to see why the Rays were intrigued by Rasmussen’s stuff, as the high-velocity, high-spin heater is made even more effective by being paired with a slider that also gets serious movement on the vertical plane:

It might be easy to trust Rasmussen’s stuff but his role certainly can’t be, given the Rays track record of unpredictability. He’s currently penciled into the starting rotation (and projected for 151 IP by Steamer) but how his final usage shakes out is not guaranteed. However, I believe in the talent and his draft price (at least, for now) makes it so it won’t cost a lot to find out how real it is.

Everyone else can take the Shanes by the Bay around 150 picks earlier, I’d rather take a chance on the discount their less-heralded teammate comes with.