Fun With Small Samples & Statistical Anomalies – An Update

About a week and a half into this season, I decided to have a little fun with small samples and statistical anomalies. Anything could happen over a tiny number of games, and indeed anything did. We stress here not to overreact to performances over the first couple of weeks, so let’s see where things stand for the players I highlighted. Did that early start hint at things to come?

Brock Holt has a 100% HR/FB rate

Unfortunately, Holt hasn’t played since May 18, thanks to a concussion, but his HR/FB rate has not remained at 100%! At the time, he had hit two homers on two fly balls. Since, he’s hit one homer on 19 fly balls, for a more Holtian 5.3% HR/FB rate. Those early homers were a 100% fluke.

The three highest strikeout rates among qualified batters belongs to three Twins hitters — Byung-ho Park, Byron Buxton, and Miguel Sano — all of whom have struck out in 50% of their plate appearances

And their strikeout rates now:

Park — 30.7%, 27.9% since
Buxton — 41.1%, 35.4% since
Sano — 33.6%, 32% since

So since the first week and a half when I published the first article, all three batters have struck out at clips much closer to our expectations. Well, except for possibly Buxton. He had generally posted strikeout rate marks around 20% in the minors, but he has found it an impossible task to make contact with pitches at the Major League level. I even said this:

I would be shocked if he was still the team’s starting center fielder by the end of May.

I was right. Now back up with the big club after a demotion to the minors, we’ll see if he can finally translate his minor league performance and make good on his former top prospect status.

Park is doing exactly what I was afraid of, which led to my belief that he was massively overvalued in drafts this year. Sure, he has excellent power, but he was at risk of an inflated strikeout rate, pushing down his batting average, and he has sixth in the batting order more often than any other slot, which has been unfavorable for his runs scored and runs batted in totals.

Miguel Sano also leads baseball with an insane 55.6% line drive rate

Sano’s line drive rate has fallen back to Earth, and sits at a more sustainable, but still strong, 23.6%. While some of his batted ball profile lends itself to a high BABIP, the big fly ball rate offsets much of those positives. And without a high BABIP, he’s going to be a batting average killer.

Daniel Murphy leads baseball with a .615 BABIP, with eight hits on 13 non-home run balls in play

Murphy’s BABIP is still an impossibly high .397, and he has posted a .378 mark since I posted the original article. According to xBABIP, he’s at major risk for serious regression.

Bryce Harper might be even better?

Nope. Some exciting changes in his skill set manifested over his first seven games, but they generally didn’t last. While he’s continuing to walk at a Bondsian rate, his strikeout rate is back to normal, and he’s merely been excellent, rather than other-worldly, posting a .375 wOBA. We all figured regression was in store, some expecting more than others, and I was in the latter camp. Then again, he owns a .242 BABIP, so a monster hot streak could be on the horizon.

Besides Buxton, Nick Castellanos and Neil Walker have the highest strikeout rates among those who have yet to record a walk

Castellanos’ strikeout and walk marks are back to normal…bad. But he makes up for terrible plate discipline thanks to a fantastic high BABIP batted ball profile and is enjoying a power breakout.

Remember when Neil Walker failed to live up to his name? It didn’t last very long, as his walk rate isn’t just back to normal, but now at the second highest mark of his career! He’s still striking out a bit more than usual, but it may be due to a change in approach that has resulted in more fly balls, a higher SwStk%, and a HR/FB rate surge. Unfortunately, his batted ball distance in no way supports that inflated HR/FB rate, which is primed for a collapse toward his career average.

Manny Machado’s pop-up problem has not been cured…

While Machado obvious improved upon his then 40% IFFB%, he’s still sitting at a career high 17.7% mark, which is 10th highest in baseball. He has also hit the third most number of pop ups. While he’s hitting above .300 for the moment with a .325 BABIP, that’s not going to last given all those easy outs.

…and 60% of Alexei Ramirez and Travis d’Arnaud’s fly balls have been of the pop-up variety

Ramirez has gotten his IFFB% back to where he has always been, proving his early season issues were just a small sample fluke. It hasn’t mattered though, as his wOBA sits at a career low.

d’Arnaud is, surprise, surprise, injured again, and has accumulated all of 52 plate appearances, 29 of which came after my article. So he’s still sporting a hilarious 40% IFFB%. One of these years he’ll remain healthy all year, enjoy a breakout season, and reward all his brave owners who gambled on his health at the draft.

“If only Eric Hosmer would add more loft to his swing and a power surge would be in his future” is what we hear. Hosmer doesn’t care, he loves to hit grounders, and has done so on 76.2% of his batted balls

His ground ball rate isn’t quite 76.2% anymore, but at 58.3%, it’s at a career high and seventh highest in baseball. In no way, shape or form do you want your supposed power hitting first baseman to be hitting nearly 60% of his balls on the ground. But thanks to a HR/FB that has inched above 20% for the first time, he might finally breach the 20 homer plateau.

By hitting the ball on the ground 75% of the time, Logan Morrison certainly know how to utilize his speed…oh wait…Morrison doesn’t possess any speed

Morrison’s ground ball rate remains stuck at a career high of 50.5%, but just like Hosmer, he has made up for it by posting a HR/FB rate above 20% for the first time. It’s too bad his batted ball distance is below the league average, so that HR/FB rate is going to come crashing down.

Trevor Story’s home run barrage has been the…story…, but his power has been boosted by an absurd 65% fly ball rate

Story’s fly ball rate has settled down to 46.2%, which is still high, but not absurd. Since the article, he has posted a 42.1% mark and a reasonable 15.7% HR/FB rate. He was obviously never going to sustain the success he enjoyed at the beginning of the season, but he still owns serious power and some speed. Sadly, he has struck out a ton, but in looking at his Plate Discipline metrics, it’s hard to see exactly why. The SwStk% is certainly worse than average, but not by all that much, surely not enough to think a 30% strikeout rate is in the cards.