Fun With Last 30 Day Z-Contact%

Yesterday, I discussed rookie Byron Buxton and his struggles making contact with pitches outside the zone. Every hitter (I assume) makes less contact on such pitches versus those inside the zone, of course. But today I wanted to check in on those who have made the most contact with the pitches they should be making contact with — those in the zone. And to add to the fun, I’ll just check in on the leaderboard over the last 30 days, highlighting the interesting names.

Daniel Murphy | 99.0% Z-Contact% Last 30 Days

99%! Did the pitcher who threw that 1% pitch Murphy miss enjoy a quick celebration? Murphy has always made strong contact, particularly in the zone, but this year he has taken that skill to a new high. He actually leads baseball for the season in the metric. As a result, his strikeout rate is now just a bit over half of what his career mark is and well below 10%. Amazingly, this focus on contact hasn’t robbed him of his usual mediocre power. His HR/FB rate actually sits at a career high and his ISO sits at its second highest mark.

He has stopped stealing bases and at his age, those swipes are unlikely to return. But this contact heavy approach should ensure that he remains an asset in batting average. It’s far from an exciting fantasy skill set, but one that doesn’t have a whole lot of downside.

Josh Reddick | 97.1%

What has taken over Reddick’s body this season?! Throughout his entire career, he has remained rather consistent at making contact on pitches inside the zone. His Z-Contact% marks have ranged narrowly from about 85% to 88%. And his strikeout rates have jumped around from about 16% up to just over 22%. Yet this year, he has nudged that strikeout rate just below 10%, thanks to the ninth best Z-Contact% in baseball. That’s rather unbelievable for a guy who we still think of as a power hitter and has never shown such contact skills before.

Like Murphy, the good news is that this new approach hasn’t sapped Reddick’s punch at all. Both his ISO and HR/FB rates are near his career averages, though a sudden drop in fly ball rate has resulted in a still-mediocre home run total. He’ll be an interesting player to project next year, as the improved contact coupled with the lower fly ball rate appears to be a conscious change in approach rather than just a one-season fluke.

A.J. Pollock | 97.1%

Remember this preseason, it was trendy to search for this year’s Charlie Blackmon? Question marks about his precise playing time kept Pollock from being the overwhelming choice, but he has received the playing time and proven that last season’s half-season worth of breakout performance was no fluke. Excellent contact, power and good speed make it look like this was obvious, though he never showed much power in the minors.

While I certainly wouldn’t pay for a repeat next year, nothing sticks out as primed for major regression. Perhaps just a little here and a little there.

Jason Heyward | 93.2%

Ever since debuting in 2010 and enjoying his power breakout in 2012, we have been waiting for that huge MVP-caliber offensive performance. And we still wait. Since his ISO peaked in that 2012 year, it has drifted downward, though has experienced a dead-cat bounce this season. While the power remains MIA and he has turned back into a ground ball machine, a surge in Z-Contact% is at least interesting. This is the first season his mark has jumped above 89%, and yet his strikeout rate remains in the same vicinity as his last two seasons.

He’s an enigma, no doubt. Given his size, it’s hard not to dream of that 30+ home run season, but whether it ever comes is anyone’s guess. Since he continues to steal bases after a rest in 2013, he’s still earning strong fantasy value for his owners. But I’m curious to see where this new, more contact-heavy Heyward goes.