Fun with Blind Comps at 1B: July 22, 2016

I wanted to try something I have never done before, but always enjoy reading when others do it. I’m referring to blind comparisons, where you compare two or more players’ statistics without saying who they are. When Paul Sporer and I went to an HQ seminar, the presenters did this a lot. Sporer was pretty good, where I think I said Adam Eaton for every player with a low ADP and a decent amount of stolen bases. Like I said, this is my first shot at this so I doubt I will come up with any crazy pairings just yet, and I limited this article to first basemen so the sampling is a bit smaller than if I did the whole league. In the words of Ghostface Killah, “Be Easy.”

These are numbers I compiled Thursday morning, so if anything big happened yesterday, I would’ve missed it. Though one game shouldn’t skew these numbers that much, obviously. Also, for ADP, I went to FantasyPros who compiled the ADP from NFBC, CBS, Yahoo, ESPN, and RTS, then averaged those numbers. Let’s get started.

Blind Comparison 1
Player A 92 386 10 46 47 0 0.285 0.389 0.491 0.375 142 63 136.4
Player B 83 304 10 42 40 0 0.289 0.368 0.467 0.361 129 46   N/A

Player A is somebody I would rather have on my team based on his rate stats and his runs created stats, but for fantasy purposes, it is very close despite Player B having over 80 less PAs. If you combine RBIs and Runs, Player A has accumulated 11 more in 9 games. However, is that worth it for a guy drafted in the top 12 rounds in 12 team leagues? Whereas Player B you didn’t even need to draft? Moving forward, I still like Player A and can see his counting stats taking some leaps.

Who are they?

Player A is Brandon Belt and Player B is David Freese. In no way am I recommending taking Freese over Belt. Instead, you may take a longer look at Freese if you are in need of a viable option at first. Despite not playing every game, he still very close to Belt’s numbers and is ranked 21st amongst first basemen according to ESPN’s player rater, three spots below Belt who is 18.

Blind Comparison 2
Player C 93 411 21 55 54 4 0.255 0.353 0.493 0.361 127 63 207.8
Player D 89 386 22 64 58 0 0.236 0.347 0.491 0.356 120 57  27.2
Player E 93 400 19 40 72 4 0.255 0.333 0.448 0.333 112 52  85.6

All three of these players are in the top 15 according to ESPN’s player rater of 1B. Interestingly, the top performer of the group (Player C) was drafted the lowest, whereas the lower performer of the group (Player D) was drafted the highest. A lot of power in this group, and Player C is the guy I want on my real team, and probably fantasy. The stolen bases are nice for a 1B, and the Rs and RBIs are not that far behind the other guys. Player E must have some serious players hitting ahead of him, or he is just a great clutch hitter to have 72 RBIs batting .255. Outside of the SBs, I would take Player Ds counting stats over the other guys and hope the BA will rise over time.

Who are they?

Player C is Carlos Santana, Player D is Chris Davis, and Player E is Albert Pujols. I guess it really does help having Mike Trout hit in front of you, right Pujols? There is a still a significant amount of the season left, but it looks like Santana is really breaking out as a top 1B candidate, especially in OBP leagues. Davis is ranked 15th according to ESPN’s player rater, but that is mostly a result of that low batting average. You are still talking top level numbers in OBP leagues.


Blind Comparison 3
Player F 92 380 7 34 45 0 0.282 0.361 0.396 0.326 106 47  60.4
Player G 89 385 8 46 30 2 0.267 0.369  0.38 0.326 101 48 309.6

I’d really be mad if I took Player F in the top 5 rounds of my fantasy draft. BA and OBP are fine, but those HRs are not what you expect from one of your top-ranked 1B. Player G is probably the weaker play, but not by much. Player F has the better BA and RBI total. 2 points for Player F. Player G has the better HR, R, and SB totals. 3 points for Player G. Granted, the HRs are separated by one and the other numbers are relatively close. Then again, if you knew who Player F is, maybe not. I’ll also say this: one player haS the potential to have a power surge, whereas the other is not very likely.

Who are they?

Player F is Adrian Gonzalez and Player G is Joe Mauer. Identical wOBAs and almost identical wRCs. This was not a fun reminder for Adrian Gonzalez owners, and I don’t see a power light at the end of this tunnel. It is still more likely than Mauer’s, but at least Mauer could’ve been had at least 20 rounds deep.

We hoped you liked reading Fun with Blind Comps at 1B: July 22, 2016 by Paul Kastava!

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Cory Settoon

A-Gon has 2 HR’s in his last 46 games (187 PA’s).

That’s insane. Thanks for the fun (and not so fun) article, Paul.