Four Starting Pitchers Rising Up: Three Deep-League Options

When scanning the starting pitchers who have been performing well on player raters, we often find high-end players mixed with late-round picks or waiver wire options. Whenever we find pitchers performing well or struggling, the first question should be why. Often, breakout performances involve a mixture of luck and skill.

Meanwhile, there could have been a pitch mix change or an actionable adjustment in their profile, which includes their stuff and command grades. Today we’ll look at four starting pitchers having recent success, dive into what could be driving that success, and examine whether it’s sustainable moving forward.

Noah Cameron, SP, Royals

Before July, Cameron was struggling, with a 4.95 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 13.5% K-BB%, and a 4.26 SIERA. Since July, Cameron’s results have been better, given a 3.15 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 16.6% K-BB%, and a 3.76 SIERA. He has been fortunate since July, with a .219 BABIP and 76.3% strand rate. That’s significantly better than his .322 BABIP and 65.1% strand rate through June, indicating Cameron is limiting hits and stranding runners in July. 

Cameron has been generating more groundballs over this stretch (45.9%, up from 34.7% prior to July). Over the course of the season, Cameron has been backing off his four-seam usage and throwing more cutters, changeups, and sliders. After throwing his four-seamer 25-30% of the time through June, he lowered the usage to 21.5% (July) and 18.9% (one start in August). That’s notable because Cameron has been commanding his cutter (109 location+), slider (119), and changeup (118) well since July 1.

Cameron’s changeup is his best pitch from a swinging-strike rate standpoint, eliciting swings and misses 20.3% of the time. The changeup has an above-average stuff grade (102 Stuff+), which has been a pitch he commands well (109 Location+). Five of his six pitches have a Location+ at 106 or higher, besides his curveball, showing he can locate his arsenal well.

Cameron’s pitch mix change, specifically relying on pitches he commands well, has been key to his success. Luck also played a role in Cameron’s success. These are the types of stretches that can occur for a command-focused pitcher like Cameron when it’s working well. 

Troy Melton, SP Tigers

Melton has been one of the best starting pitchers this season, ranking in the top 20 on the FanGraphs Player Rater at the position. Jacob Latz, Melton, and Kyle Harrison were three pitchers among the top 20 in earned value this season who went outside the top 300 picks in 12-team leagues. For Melton, he has been quite fortunate, given his .191 BABIP and 95.2% strand rate. 

Only one starting pitcher threw 100+ IP with a strand rate above 90% since 2021. That was Robbie Ray in 2021. Twelve starting pitchers total, including Ray, had a strand rate at 85% or higher. Though Melton has a career strand rate of 91.6% across 119+ innings, it’s unlikely he sustains that over a larger sample unless he remains an outlier. 

Melton’s 3.12 xERA (85th percentile) is the most optimistic ERA estimator, suggesting that he can generate weak contact. If Melton had an ERA close to his xERA, fantasy managers would likely be happy with those outcomes. Melton’s lower xERA has been supported by his four-seam (.255 wOBA, .293 xwOBA), cutter (.085 wOBA, .129 xwOBA), and slider (.177 wOBA, .193 xwOBA) inducing weak contact against right-handed hitters, among pitches thrown 10% or more.

Similarly, Melton has multiple pitches that can generate weak contact against lefties. His cutter (.212 wOBA, .308 xwOBA), splitter (.179 wOBA, .219 xwOBA), and curveball (.241 wOBA, .324 xwOBA) have been the three best among his arsenal of pitches thrown 8% or more against lefties. Even Melton’s four-seamer (.320 wOBA, .328 xwOBA) and slider (.339 wOBA, .298 xwOBA) haven’t been crushed by lefties. 

Melton has mediocre stuff (101 Stuff+) and command (98 Location+) overall. However, Melton possesses three or more pitches with above-average stuff and command grades, which tend to align with the pitches that have been helping him succeed. Like those command-focused pitchers like Cameron, players like Melton who generate weak contact across multiple pitches can outpitch the underlying metrics. 

Melton’s outcomes will regress, but I would trust the xERA more than the other ERA estimators that expect something closer to 4.00.

Hunter Brown, SP, Astros

In Brown’s first few outings since missing over two months with a shoulder injury, he struggled in June and into mid-July. In those first six starts since returning from the injured list, Brown had a 5.22 ERA, a 1.60 WHIP, a 3% K-BB%, a .260 BABIP, and a 72.7% strand rate. Furthermore, Brown had a 100 Stuff+ and an 87 Location+ from June 16 to July 19.

In Brown’s last three starts, he rocks a 2.41 ERA, a 0.80 WHIP, and a 23.2% K-BB%. While he was fortunate to allow a .208 BABIP and strand 82% of runners, Brown’s Stuff+ (106) and Location+ (105) improved significantly over the past few starts. Brown’s Stuff+ over the past three starts aligns with his career norm (103 Stuff+). However, that’s significantly better command than Brown has shown in his career (98 Location+). 

It doesn’t look like Brown has been making a significant pitch mix change, besides throwing more sinkers (28.5%) this season, up from 22.7% (2025) and 17.9% (2024). The sinker has been dropping two more inches with an additional inch of arm-side fade this season. Brown’s sinker continues to lead his arsenal in Stuff+ (112) while generating weak contact against righties (.302 wOBA, .266 xwOBA) and lefties (.265 wOBA, .337 xwOBA). 

If Brown boasts an above-average Stuff+ and Location+ like over the past three starts, that would help to cover the poor control. That’s evident in Brown’s 13% walk rate, supported by a 40.5% ball rate this season. For context, Brown has a 37.6% ball rate throughout his career. We could guess that Brown’s shoulder injury was likely contributing to his control problems this season.

Before Brown’s shoulder injury this season, he was gradually improving each year as a workhorse, throwing 150 innings in three consecutive years. Brown’s 3.56 xERA is the most optimistic, nearly identical to his actual outcomes. However, Brown’s 3.96 xFIP and 4.22 SIERA expect him to pitch like a deep-league streamer. 

I tend to be more optimistic on Brown’s outlook for the rest of the season, expecting him to pitch closer to his xERA and career ERA (3.49), with 2025 being the outlier. 

Logan Henderson, SP, Brewers

Henderson returned from a back injury on July 9. Since then, he pitched well, with a 2.67 ERA, 0.78 WHIP, and 27.5% K-BB%. Like the others we have covered today, Henderson was fortunate, with a .200 BABIP and 93.3% strand rate. Henderson stranded 100% of runners in four straight starts, which is pretty wild. Though it’s a small sample, Henderson’s K-BB% over this stretch far outweighs the luck factors. Furthermore, Henderson’s 103 Stuff+ and 105 Location+ since July 9 have been close to his career averages.

Henderson started throwing his cutter more this season, throwing them 27.1% of the time to right-handed hitters. That coincides with Henderson throwing fewer changeups (20.5%), down nearly 19 percentage points from last season against righties. Henderson’s cutter allows weak contact, with a .224 wOBA (.243 xwOBA) against right-handed hitters. 

There was a similar trend against lefties, as Henderson threw his cutter 16% of the time, nearly four points more against left-handed hitters. That coincides with Henderson lowering his four-seamer (44.2%) and changeup (37.9%) usage by 2-3 percentage points this season against lefties. Though Henderson’s cutter doesn’t grade well in Stuff+ (95), he commands it well with a 109 Location+. 

Henderson has shown strong strikeout skills (26.5%) and a 12.6% swinging-strike rate throughout his career. Furthermore, Henderson boasts above-average stuff (104) and command (107), indicating there’s plenty to like in his profile, though it’s a small sample of 75.1 MLB career innings.