Four Lightly Owned Stolen Base Contributors

With just about a month and a half left in the season to go, it’s not automatically about choosing the most valuable offensive contributor for your active lineup. More important is where you sit in the various categories and which you could gain and lose the most points. For those in need of some speed, these four young men are almost certainly available in your league. All are owned in 10% or less in CBS leagues, though are probably better options in deeper leagues, rather than shallow mixers.

Tyler Saladino |3B CHW

The revolving door at third base in White Sox land eventually landed on Saladino. Despite posting just a .327 wOBA at Triple-A this season and being ranked as just the 20th best White Sox prospect heading into the season, Saladino has started nearly every game since his call-up in mid-July. And except for two games early on in which he hit ninth, he has batted in the two hole the entire time. It makes little sense to me, but for as long as Robin Ventura is okay with a .274 OBP batting second, then fantasy owners should take advantage.

Although he has just four steals in six attempts over 137 plate appearances, he swiped a whopping 25 bases (with just two caughts) in 231 plate appearances at Triple-A (a 65 steal pace over 600 plate appearances). He had never stolen bags at that kind of clip, but has stolen as many as 39 in a season. He’s also not a true burner, as his speed was rated just a 50. But he is willing to run, and that’s what’s important. He’s unlikely to contribute positive value anywhere else, except perhaps runs scored, though.

Abraham Almonte | OF CLE

Just last week, I featured Almonte in the week’s deep league waiver wire. The Indians don’t have any other real options up at the moment, so Almonte will be given a chance to play his way out of a job before the team considers digging into its farm system. It’s only been 33 plate appearances with the Indians so far, but he does have a steal.

Unlike Saladino above, Almonte does have a bit of pop. He should out-RBI Saladino and outhomer him as well. What Almonte really needs to do is translate his minor league plate patience, as he had regularly posted walk rates above 10%. In the Majors so far, his walk rate sits at just 6.0%, which doesn’t give him enough opportunities to steal bases.

Carlos Sanchez | 2B CHW

And here’s another White Sox lottery winner who was the last on the second base carousel. Though his speed was rated identical to Saladino, he doesn’t have quite the history of swiping bags. His high in a season is 26 and he hasn’t been as successful on the basepaths. He doesn’t walk much and regularly hits at the bottom of the Sox lineup. He also possesses limited power and strikes out too much for that type of hitter.

So there clearly isn’t a whole lot to get excited about. Except for maybe a couple of stolen bases. Yet, he has just one in two attempts all season with the Sox that spans 263 plate appearances. But he stole 17 all of last year and had stolen five during his time at Triple-A this season. So he would seem to have the upside to steal more bases than his current pace suggests. He’s a risk if he doesn’t given that he barely contributes anywhere else, but he has the playing time now and a history of some speed, so I’d bet he picks up that pace.

Ketel Marte

Two weeks ago, Marte was one of my deep league wire recommendations. Since then, he hasn’t officially grabbed a starting job, but has played a lot. And has hit lead off in every one of those starts. Including yesterday’s game, he has shown surprising patient, having posted a 15.8% walk rate. That’s not what we expected from a guy who managed just a 7.0% mark at Triple-A this season, but it’s a great sign moving forward, even though it’s obviously unsustainable.

He has stolen one base in two attempts so far, which extrapolates to about 21 attempts over 600 plate appearances. That’s far below the pace he was at in Triple-A this year and he seemingly has the best raw speed of all the names on this list. Since he has typically made good contact in the minors, he might even contribute positively in batting average along with runs scored as a result of hitting atop the lineup and garnering the most plate appearances on the team. Right now, the projection systems haven’t caught on just yet, as ZiPS and Steamer are calling for just 111 and 81 plate appearances, respectively, over the rest of the season. He should easily exceed those projections, and as a result, those stolen base forecasts of four and three.





Mike Podhorzer is the 2015 Fantasy Sports Writers Association Baseball Writer of the Year. He produces player projections using his own forecasting system and is the author of the eBook Projecting X 2.0: How to Forecast Baseball Player Performance, which teaches you how to project players yourself. His projections helped him win the inaugural 2013 Tout Wars mixed draft league. Follow Mike on Twitter @MikePodhorzer and contact him via email.

3 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
steve
8 years ago

“For those in need of some speed, these four young men are almost certainly available in your league.”

…checks NL only league FA… yes, those guys are all available…

Corey
8 years ago
Reply to  Mike Podhorzer

I was about to comment on that as well, I find these kinds of articles really helpful, but it would be nice to make sure that they always contain someone in each league for us AL and NL only leaguers, even if the ownership rate is a little bit high. I love guys like this to replace short term injured stars, add some SBs and then activate your DL player after 2 weeks.