Fly Ball Pull% Gainers

Earlier this year, I developed the newest incarnation of my xHR/FB ratio, this time taking advantage of the Splits Leaderboard sent from the heavens. When researching the components of the equation, I calculated a 0.229 correlation between Fly Ball Pull% and HR/FB rate. That’s no surprise, as most batters have far greater pull power than power to any other part of the field. So then it follows that a batter who suddenly pulls their fly balls at a significantly higher rate could enjoy a power breakout. Let’s take a gander at the fantasy relevant hitters that have seen the largest gains in Fly Ball Pull% versus last year.

As a top catching prospect, Austin Hedges was always known for his defense, rather than his hitting ability. But something clicked at Triple-A last year, as he enjoyed a major breakout, especially on the power front. Was it for real? 57 early season at-bats say yes. It’s silly to compare his FB Pull% to last year since he hit just nine flies, but his 52.9% mark is more than double the current 24.1% league average. There’s obviously little chance he sustains a 29.4% HR/FB rate, however the huge pull percentage is a good sign that his power gains in the minors last year were for real.

Stephen Vogt is a veteran so it’s interesting to see that he has more than doubled his pull%. However, his HR/FB rate has barely budged so far. That shouldn’t last very long though, as his FB Hard% is essentially the same as it’s always been. He just needs to stop popping up, which is probably the big reason why the HR/FB rate hasn’t moved.

Man, is this the same Matt Holliday?! Not only is he pulling his flies like never before (his current mark is double his previous career high), but he’s also running a walk rate above 20% to rank fifth in baseball! He’s also swinging and missing more than ever and stopped hitting line drives. This actually looks exactly like an older player making the adjustments he needs to remain productive. The shape of his performance may not be what we expected, but even at age 37, he’s not done yet.

Jason Heyward homered again yesterday, suggesting that perhaps his new swing is finally paying off? His three homers on the season have now come in his last four games. His FB Pull% is a bit more than double his career average, so maybe this is all part of a conscious effort to rediscover his lost power. He’ll be an interesting one to follow this season, but the early returns are positive.

It’s not just Coors Field, as Mark Reynolds has hit two of his five homers in away parks. But he’s never pulled his flies at a 40% clip, let alone a 50% one! I think we all expected more power last year during his first season with the Rockies, but it’s now coming a year later. With Ian Desmond returning soon and David Dahl likely following at some point, any slump could push him to the bench. But there’s little reason to doubt the power for as long as he remains in the lineup.

Dustin Pedroia trying to join the crowd of middle infielders enjoying a power spike since the beginning of last year, but he still has a goose egg in the home run column. He’s doing his best though, doubling his fly ball pull rate, but has hit far too many pop-ups.

Remember when Yasiel Puig began the season super hot, hitting three homers over his first four games (including two in one game)? He’s hit just one since. That said, he has always posted rather low FB Pull% marks, as his career high set during his 2013 debut was just 23%. As usual, there are some very encouraging signs here, mixed in with typical Puig “but…” reactions. Given his age and physical skills, you have to blindly assume he can’t get any worse than his 2015 and 2016 performances, but that doesn’t automatically mean he’ll earn positive shallow mixed league value.

As Jeff Sullivan shared with us yesterday, Taylor Motter is possibly baseball’s most improved hitter. One of the ways he has accomplished such an honor is by pulling everything in sight. His FB Pull% leads baseball among those with at least 10 flies. He’s not going to maintain a near 30% HR/FB rate, but a sky high pull rate is a good way to confirm your power is (mostly) for real.

Hey, look at that, Byron Buxton finds himself among the leaders of yet another list. This list, though, is actually kinda good, at least for something. It’s too bad he has yet to homer despite all those pulled flies. That’s because his fly ball Hard% has plummeted, having been cut in half, while his Soft% has surged. It doesn’t matter which part of the field your fly balls are being hit to if they are soft…either way they ain’t going over the fence! It’s sad to see how absolutely disastrous the underlying skills have been this year. He’s posted a paltry 3.8% line drive rate and a 35.7% IFFB%!