Five Major Differences in My Top 300

We published our Top 300 lists today and it was a fascinating project for me. I’m more accustomed to doing positional rankings so this was somewhat new for me. I’ve made overall lists before, plenty of times, but only for myself so I could eyeball adjustments very easily in the midst of a draft. This required more precision because I couldn’t just assume the adjustments. I want to discuss five players where I really diverged from the final group ranking.

Dellin Betances, RP, NYY

(My Rank: 62, Group Rank: 130, Difference: +68)

I’ve completely bought in on the Yankees reliever. Obviously if he doesn’t get announced as the closer ahead of Andrew Miller, I’ll have to adjust, but I’m betting on him getting the role and excelling with it. I know he’s not just going to repeat last year with 35 saves. First off, he won’t get 90 innings as a closer and his crazy ratios are set to rise because it’s hard to maintain that kind of historical rate.

Of course there is room between his 1.40 ERA/0.78 WHIP and the baseline for elite so he can regress and still fit into the elite category. I’ve got him as the second-best closer in the game. These elite closers are four category guys as opposed to one-trick ponies. They help in saves, strikeouts, ERA, and WHIP. Their impact in the ratios isn’t the same as a starter obviously, but 60-70 innings of a low-2.00s ERA (and oftentimes a sub-2.00 ERA these days) can be really helpful.

 

Carlos Santana, 3B/1B, CLE

(My Rank: 78, Group Rank: 103, Difference: +25)

I realize he lost his catcher eligibility, but I was surprised to see him so far down. He basically dumped two months (.159 AVG, 6 HRs) of the season and still rallied for .231 and 27. I realize .231 isn’t special, but I expect him to hit something closer to the .266 we saw in the final four months. Third base has depth (and adding first base eligibility doesn’t really do anything), but there weren’t any 30 HR hitters at the position last year and I think Santana can do that. Heck, there were only 11 such hitters in all of baseball last year. I think that lineup is strong enough to give him a real shot at career-highs in runs scored and driven in.

 

Leonys Martin, OF, TEX

(My Rank: 89, Group Rank: 113, Difference: +24)

Maybe I’m overly influenced by his 2012 season in Triple-A Round Rock which is just outside of my hometown of Austin. I saw him a bunch that summer and was incredibly impressed by his hitting. I think he has another level of power to tap into here in his mid-20s.

Another reason I like him so much though is that this level he has been at for the last two years builds in a nice floor. I’m willing to bet on the potential growth because I feel like even if it doesn’t come through, I still have a firm low-$20s dollar speed option. A big key in his advancement would be figuring out a plan against soft stuff from lefties.

 

Christian Yelich, OF, MIA

(My Rank: 75, Group Rank: 52, Difference: -23)

I actually like Yelich a good bit, but I think he may be getting overrated. Were his gains against lefties real (from .476 to .819 OPS)? He struggled against them in the minors, so I’m more apt to regress that .819 than buy it. On the other end, he did drop almost 200 points of OPS against righties so he could be due a bump there. I just don’t think it’s going to be a massive bump in 2015 so I’m reticent to dive in headfirst.

He hits the ball on the ground at a 62 percent clip in his short career which doesn’t bode well for any type of power growth. Is he going to run as much batting second now? I see something like a .278-90-10-63-17 kind of season, which is very good and useful, but not quite knocking on the door of the top 50.

 

Pedro Alvarez, 3B, PIT

(My Rank: 145, Group Rank: 286, Difference: +141)

I know 2014 didn’t go as planned, but I’m surprised he fell so far on several of the other lists. Even if we remove Zach’s 643, he only slots up at 191 which is still a 46 spot difference from my ranking. He had back-to-back 30 HR seasons (including 36 in ’13), but his excellent HR/FB rate tumbled from 25-26 percent in those two seasons to 16 percent last year. With the kind of power that Alvarez has shown in his career, it wasn’t impossible to believe he could hold a rate in the 20s.

Lost in the mix of his poor season (which included a shift from third base to first base in the field) is the fact that he raised his walk rate and lowered his strikeout rate – setting career-bests in both. Throw in some bumps and bruises that ate up 40 games (including all but one game in September) of his season and we can start to understand why he had such a rough season. And yet with all of that, he still almost popped 20 homers in just 445 PA. I think he is a strong bet to get back into the mid-20s with low-30s very much in play again. As I said with Santana, I know 3B is pretty deep this year, but I still value potential 30 HR hitters.