Five Hitters That Drastically Underperformed Their Expected Value in 2026

Today we will follow-up on the breakout hitters article, this time looking at highly drafted players who underperformed expectations. The table below shows bats who were among some of the biggest under-performers in 2026. All of these players were drafted in the top 150 of 12-team leagues and earned at least $15 less than they were projected to earn.

Many of the them fell short of projected volume, due mainly to injuries or other factors. For some, their skills were similar, but the luck factors regressed. For others, the outlier season coincides with unexpected skill changes. But they all fell short of what we expected when we drafted them.

Though some of these hitters earned positive value, it was lower than projected. We don’t need a long discussion on hitters who missed significant time with injuries; they can have a mulligan if we liked them heading into the 2026 season.

That said, let’s examine five hitters who underperformed expectations.

Gunnar Henderson, SS, Orioles

Henderson was drafted in the back end of the first round on the strength of a 20/20 projection, after averaging 27/25 in 2024 and 2025. Henderson stayed healthy and logged 702 plate appearances, but still underperformed by 14 stolen bases. The other main hit to Henderson’s earned value came from a career-low batting average (.225), 40 points below his career norm.

Unsurprisingly, Henderson’s BABIP fell to .261, 40 points below his career average. Because Henderson’s strikeout rate and swinging-strike rate didn’t shift much, plate discipline didn’t affect his batting average. However, Henderson increased his flyball rate to 38.4%, four points above his career norm, and increased FB% can lead to lower BABIP.

Furthermore, Henderson was pulling the ball more (44.8%), four percentage points higher than the career average. That coincides with Henderson’s 22.8% pulled-air rate, five points higher than the career norm. Again, significant changes for Henderson. Typically, pulling the ball into the air more should lead to higher exit velocities and barrels. Henderson had a .775 wOBA (.651 xwOBA) and 96.2 mph exit velocity on pulled-air batted balls in 2026. Henderson pulled the ball in the air more often, but the results on those pulled-air batted balls were the worst of his career, as shown below.

That said, he was efficient with 22 home runs and 23 barrels, similar to 2024 on pulled-air balls. It seems like an outlier season for Henderson, especially with the different approach of pulling more balls into the air.

From a speed standpoint, Henderson had a 9% stolen base opportunity rate, four points below the career average. Unfortunately, Henderson ran less often and struggled to convert them into steals (66%), compared to 79% in his career. Sometimes fewer steals can be a managerial philosophy. The Orioles hired a new manager in 2026, Craig Albernaz, after coaching and working with the Guardians (2024-2025) and the Giants (2020-2023). The Orioles ranked 25th in stolen bases this season, after being in the bottom parts of the league in steals, except in 2025 (121).

Though it might be hard to expect 25/25, Henderson should give us 25/15 with a quality batting average, assuming the BABIP regresses closer to the career norm. If Henderson falls into the second or third round, that price might be more palatable, though he likely won’t come at a significant discount. He seems like someone to buy back into for 2027.

Kyle Tucker, OF, Dodgers

Like Henderson, Tucker had the volume. However, Tucker projected for 30/23 and barely reached half of that. Though he hit 4th through 6th in the lineup, he often batted in the bottom half. Tucker came in with a .266 career batting average and fell 30 points short of that (.233). That coincided with Tucker’s BABIP (.257), falling 20 points from his career norm.

Most of Tucker’s plate discipline and batted ball metrics look relatively similar to his career averages. Tucker’s contact rate, swinging-strike rate, pull rate, and fly ball percentage this season are similar to his career norm. He averaged a 13.5% HR/FB rate in his career, which dropped to (8.5%), the lowest in his career aside from his rookie season. Like other hitters, Tucker’s barrel rate per plate appearance fell. He was down to 4.5%, over two percentage points below his career average (7.2%).

Like Henderson, Tucker’s 93.6 mph exit velocity and .775 wOBA (.628 xwOBA) on pulled-air contact were the lowest since his rookie season. Interestingly, the Dodgers ranked 6th in Home Run Park Factors for left-handed bats, compared to 4th for the Astros, across a three-year rolling average. Maybe Tucker needed time to adjust to a new team environment, but we’re hoping the lower barrel rate in 2026 isn’t a trend in the wrong direction.

Tucker should post another 25/25 season.

Julio Rodríguez, OF, Mariners

The projections for Rodríguez were 30/28, but he went 22/22 this season. It seems like we have an odd-and-even-year trend, with the 30/30 seasons in 2023 and 2025. Furthermore, Rodríguez’s .289 BABIP was a career-low, 30 points below his career norm. That led to a career-low .247 batting average, though it does not explain throwing the ball into the stands with two outs.

Jokes aside, Rodríguez lowered his swinging-strike rate (12.9%) and increased his contact rate (75.1%). Both shifted by 1-2 percentage points compared to the career numbers. That’s a slight shift, so maybe those numbers regress in 2027. Rodríguez was pulling the ball more into the air (18.5%), two points higher than his career average. Interestingly, Rodríguez had a career-low 6.1% barrel rate per plate appearance, 1 point below his career norm (7.3%).

Though the Mariners tied for 8th in wRC+ (102), they ranked 28th in runs, 27th in RBI, and 29th in batting average. However, the Mariners were decent in home runs (No. 16) and stolen bases (No. 10). Dan Wilson won’t return as the Mariners’ manager, meaning some team changes. Since most of Rodríguez’s skills have been similar to his career norms, we’ll buy the dip in 2027, though it might be slight.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 1B, Blue Jays

If you told someone that Guerrero had single-digit home runs, they would assume he was injured for most of the season. Guerrero had laser-eye surgery after the season, so maybe vision issues contributed to the struggles. Beyond that, Guerrero was on the injury report for back, concussion, hamstring, and elbow issues throughout the season. Those injuries and issues can impact power.

Guerrero continued to have elite bat speed (76.3 mph), though a 48.6% groundball rate certainly limits his power output, and contributes to his low 12.4% pulled-air rate and a career-low 5.3% barrel rate per plate appearance. After 50+ barrels in five straight seasons, Guerrero hit only 32. Unsurprisingly, Guerrero’s 5.7% HR/FB fell well short of his career number (16.1%), which aligns with his lower power skills and luck. A rebound in HR/FB rate would increase his HR total dramatically even without hitting the ball in the air more.

We know Guerrero hits the ball hard, so it’s wild to see single-digit home runs. Given multiple injuries, the laser-eye surgery, and historical power, Guerrero should be bound for a bounce-back season in 2027.

Wyatt Langford, OF, Rangers

Betting on Langford’s health can be a fool’s errand, with hamstring (2024), oblique (2025), and arm/hamstring (2026) injuries leading to missed time. Langford was projected for 24/23, but went 17/15, with 140 fewer plate appearances than projected.

Langford hits the ball into optimal launch angles and pulls balls into the air. He had a 25.6% pulled-air rate, consistent with his career. Langford’s 5.1% barrel rate per plate appearance dipped by over 1.5 points from 6.7%. Furthermore, Langford’s home run luck regressed to an 11.8% HR/FB, impacted by a very high infield fly ball rate (18.1%). We typically don’t pay attention to infield fly ball rates, but Langford might be getting under the ball, popping it up, and making weak contact.

The optimistic projections might have Langford logging 600+ plate appearances, which would lead to peak numbers in home runs and steals. His plate discipline continues to be a strength that should provide value in batting average and points leagues. Langford has the power and speed to give us another 20/20 season, with the potential for 25/25. There might be plenty of Langford stans like me, so it’ll be hard to expect a discounted price in 2027. That said, we’ll still be sucked into Langford.