First Base ADP Market Report: 3/22/21

With draft season upon us, it is important to monitor where players are being drafted on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I have been doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day. You can find all the pieces in this series here.

Top 100 Players Rising

None

 

Top 100 Players Falling

None

 

Top 200 Players Rising

Rhys Hoskins (+10.88)- Hoskins raised up the ADP over the last month now that he is playing in games which means he should be ready for the start of the season. Unfortunately, he is really struggling in spring training. The most important part is that he is playing, but I do worry that the lack of the DH means he will sit more than last year. As you can tell, I am feeling pretty ambivalent about him.   

Trey Mancini (+18.93)- Mancini is rising because he is healthy and performing well in spring. The strikeouts are a bit of a concern, but he is hitting .323 with a homer. Baltimore is a great place to hit and there is no reason he won’t play every day. 

C.J. Cron (+134.38)- Cron is rising up because of his great spring and what seems like a full time role in Colorado. The ADP will continue to rise as we have seen his ADP inside of the top 150 in the first few Main Events. The power will play great in Colorado and he is hitting in the middle of that lineup, so I am actually ok with the price and rostered him in the Tout Wars Mixed Auction. 

 

Top 200 Players Falling

Dominic Smith (-21.28)- The continued fall of Dom Smith in the ADP with the concerns he will lose playing time without a DH in the National league. At this point we have to acknowledge that this is a huge risk. Smith is brutal in the outfield and he is not knocking Pete Alonso off of 1st base. His StatCast data in 2020 was great with an xBA of .304, a barrel percentage of 13.3% and a hard hit percentage of 46.7%. I love the upside, but the floor isn’t as safe without the guarantee of 600 plate appearances. 

 

Top 300 Players Rising

Ryan McMahon (+18.6)- With Arenado leaving town and Brendan Rodgers hurt, McMahon should have a full time role and hit high up in the order. He reworked his swing in the offseason, but it hasn’t yet shown itself to be successful in spring training where he is hitting .189/.268/.378 with two home runs and four walks, but eight strikeouts in 41 plate appearances. He is triple eligible which is great, but he definitely needs to hit or he could find himself in a platoon or worse. 

 

Andrew Vaughn (+73.24)- Vaughn is rising with the hope that if he is not up by Opening Day, he will be up very soon. I tend to believe that, but we are talking about a guy that is approaching the top 200 picks in Main Event drafts. I think he will hit for average with some pop, but I don’t know that it is prodigious power right now. He is a gamble, but I think it is one worth taking if you can cover for the time he might be in the minors for. 

 

Bobby Dalbec (+18.9)- Part of the gain for Dalbec in the ADP has to do with his hot spring. He is hitting .324 with six home runs in spring, but he also has 15 strikeouts in 38 plate appearances. The strong average he has put up in spring along with the one he put up in 2020 are fools gold if he continues to strikeout at this rate, but the power is elite. Make sure you have an average pillow if you are going to take him. 

 

Top 300 Players Falling

Jared Walsh (-25.56)- Walsh is falling due to concerns about his playing time with Justin Upton and Shohei Ohtani healthy and Dexter Fowler in the fold. However, he has been hitting high up in the lineup in spring which is interesting, but he has struggled quite a bit. I am intrigued by Walsh, but have yet to pull the trigger on him, which says a lot considering I have like 20 teams already drafted. 

 

Jake Cronenworth (-34.47)- Cronenworth’s drop in ADP has everything to do with all the talent they have brought in this offseason. The signing of Ha-seong Kim 김하성 and Jurickson Profar were troubling, but with the struggles of Kim in spring training and the injury of Trent Grisham, I think his playing time is pretty safe to start the season. He is triple eligible and could even add eligibility in the outfield during the season. I think he should be going higher than he is.

First Base ADP Market Report: 3/22/21
2/19/21-3/22/21 Player Team Position(s) 10/1/20-10/31/20 11/1/20-11/30/20 12/1/20-1/12/21 1/13/21-2/18/21 Change
13.84 Freddie Freeman ATL 1B 15 13.42 13.03 14.74 0.9
17.98 Cody Bellinger LAD 1B, OF 16 14.46 15.83 17.52 -0.46
32.86 DJ LeMahieu FA 1B, 2B, 3B 28.75 27.04 32.73 31.7 -1.16
44.59 Jose Abreu CWS 1B 34.5 33.77 35.6 42.74 -1.85
51.58 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR 1B 61.5 60.23 59.27 55.24 3.66
58.42 Pete Alonso NYM 1B 63.25 61.5 59.2 62.22 3.8
69.46 Luke Voit NYY 1B 52.25 58.42 68.4 67.93 -1.53
94.35 Matt Olson OAK 1B 85.5 91.35 96.2 97.5 3.15
96.38 Paul Goldschmidt STL 1B 106 106.58 102.43 98.87 2.49
105.71 Max Muncy LAD 1B, 2B, 3B 104 97.58 98.7 100.96 -4.75
106.32 Anthony Rizzo CHC 1B 106 98.73 99.7 102.56 -3.76
112.41 Alec Bohm PHI 1B, 3B 106.5 106.35 101.2 110.22 -2.19
122.92 Mike Moustakas CIN 1B, 2B 133.25 128.92 126.47 123.76 0.84
140.48 Dominic Smith NYM 1B, OF 99 88.08 104.03 125.31 -15.17
145.71 Josh Bell WAS 1B 180.75 187.27 178.97 150.67 4.96
146.13 Eric Hosmer SD 1B 138.5 135.46 137.2 141 -5.13
164.81 Rhys Hoskins PHI 1B 145.25 164.04 187.97 175.69 10.88
173.6 Ryan Mountcastle BAL 1B, OF 149 138.92 156.67 170.94 -2.66
175.22 Trey Mancini BAL 1B, OF 224.25 200 189.5 194.15 18.93
193.29 C.J. Cron DET 1B 285.25 348.65 292.7 327.67 134.38
194.95 Miguel Sano MIN 1B 188.5 191.62 188.03 198.19 3.24
206.1 Christian Walker ARZ 1B 176.25 182.23 193.07 196.28 -9.82
219.69 Jared Walsh LAA 1B 195 189.27 182.13 194.13 -25.56
224.23 Ryan McMahon COL 1B, 2B, 3B 271.5 256.46 259.37 242.83 18.6
234.34 Hunter Dozier KC 1B, OF 232.75 242.15 232.63 243.37 9.03
235.78 Jake Cronenworth SD 1B, 2B, SS 160.75 157.69 152.9 201.31 -34.47
242.59 Andrew Vaughn CWS 1B 272 273 274.5 315.83 73.24
262.87 Yuli Gurriel HOU 1B 286.5 284.38 251.3 252.85 -10.02
263.94 Jeimer Candelario DET 1B, 3B 226.5 244.62 242.87 249.65 -14.29
269.78 Carlos Santana KC 1B 334.75 320.69 275.27 271.22 1.44
282.38 Rowdy Tellez TOR 1B 283 284.73 235.9 266.8 -15.58
291.43 Bobby Dalbec BOS 1B 244.5 258.27 285.83 310.33 18.9
319.39 Joey Votto CIN 1B 438.75 402.08 355.57 325.8 6.41
319.45 Tommy La Stella OAK 1B, 2B 278.75 300.77 292.8 300.8 -18.65
329.71 Jesus Aguilar MIA 1B 272.5 289.42 311.77 319.54 -10.17
340.66 Nate Lowe TEX 1B 351.25 398.58 312.43 316.65 -24.01
354.73 Brandon Belt SF 1B 372.25 367.92 336.97 336.54 -18.19
364.87 Evan White SEA 1B 388.25 378.62 353.47 355.54 -9.33
374.88 Renato Nunez FA 1B 233.5 275.54 356.03 399.02 24.14
380.46 Wilmer Flores SF 1B, 2B 340.75 295.04 309.9 334.94 -45.52
407.08 Colin Moran PIT 1B 444.75 450.15 423.57 395 -12.08
418.04 Marwin Gonzalez FA 1B, 2B, 3B, OF 471.75 467.85 466.77 461.83 43.79
433.01 Garrett Cooper MIA 1B 345.75 359.08 344.17 371.8 -61.21
437.17 Mike Brosseau TB 1B, 2B, 3B 440.5 426.31 409.77 425.8 -11.37
438.27 Mitch Moreland SD 1B 558 522.46 535.03 535.37 97.1
449.46 Asdrubal Cabrera FA 1B, 3B 472.25 471.19 511.7 536.43 86.97
463.54 Michael Chavis BOS 1B, 2B, OF 372 393.5 380.67 408.7 -54.84
496.04 Travis Shaw TOR 1B, 3B 435.5 466.58 537.7 576.28 80.24
499.65 Josh Fuentes COL 1B 474.75 486.54 464.57 454.89 -44.76
505.94 Ji-Man Choi TB 1B 560 590.23 501.5 490.89 -15.05
515.01 Pat Valaika BAL 1B, 2B, SS 575 542.62 506.23 494.57 -20.44
571.22 Jake Bauers CLE 1B, OF 739.75 727.88 615.03 571.93 0.71
578.16 Ronald Guzman TEX 1B 621 592.42 686 693.93 115.77
594.61 Danny Santana TEX 1B 452 506.38 539.97 627.02 32.41
595.84 Albert Pujols LAA 1B 712.25 681.12 666.07 638.07 42.23
607.55 Pavin Smith ARZ 1B 600 604.35 537.47 594.22 -13.33
624.01 Jake Lamb FA 1B, 3B 676.5 652.65 618.73 656.56 32.55
649.19 Todd Frazier FA 1B, 3B NA 736.5 727.13 739.11 89.92
660.94 Jedd Gyorko MLW 1B, 3B 631.75 611.19 592.37 608.31 -52.63
678.35 Lewin Diaz MIA 1B 624.75 618.58 588.7 624.33 -54.02
685.69 Seth Brown OAK 1B 707 744.77 701.37 667.54 -18.15
719.35 Seth Beer ARZ 1B NA NA 608.97 688.15 -31.2
721.12 Ryan McBroom KC 1B 599.5 674.27 710.7 713.87 -7.25
728.16 Matt Beaty LAD 1B 746 NA 744.67 738.96 10.8
728.86 Mike Ford NYY 1B 673 720.12 681.83 691 -37.86
729.15 Ryan O’Hearn KC 1B NA 738.04 730.57 739.17 10.02
737.16 Chris Davis BAL 1B NA NA 744 748.98 11.82
741.91 Triston Casas BOS 1B NA NA 736.47 744.7 2.79
746.48 Sherten Apostel TEX 1B NA NA 711.63 738.13 -8.35
748.39 Eric Thames 테임즈 FA 1B NA 739.08 739.9 NA #VALUE!
749.87 Daniel Murphy FA 1B 690.5 737.27 734.13 750.67 0.8
749.95 Jose Osuna PIT 1B, OF 733.25 741.58 NA 749.28 -0.67
750.75 Will Craig PIT 1B 745.75 NA 742.4 750.8 0.05
SOURCE: https://nfc.shgn.com/adp/baseball?g=150
ADP is from NFBC Draft Champions Leagues





Justin is the co-host on The Sleeper and The Bust Podcast and writes for Rotographs covering the Roto Riteup as well as random topics that float into his juvenile brain. In addition to his work at Rotographs, Justin is the lead fantasy writer/analyst and co-owner for FriendswithFantasyBenefits.com, owner of The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational, and a fantasy football and baseball writer for Fantasy Alarm. He is also a certified addiction treatment counselor. Follow Justin on Twitter @JustinMasonFWFB.

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docgooden85
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docgooden85

I love it when other drafters make decisions based on a handful of Spring Training at-bats (or pitching appearances). I’ll take Hoskins, thankyouverymuch. P.S. Per the last edition, I also don’t think Rizzo is unsexy – walks and doubles are sexy(!), even if roto format erases them for (insert genius reason here). OBP / S&H is the best roto.