First Base ADP Market Report: 2/12/2024

As we hit the beginning of draft season, it is important to monitor where players are being drafted on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day. You can read all the Market Reports here.

Top 100 Players Rising

None

 

Top 100 Players Falling

Cody Bellinger (-11.56) – Bellinger is falling because he hasn’t signed yet. He will likely move up quite a bit once he does sign which should happen any day now. Bellinger is coming off of a season in which he hit .307/.356/.525 with 26 home runs and 20 stolen bases. He had a career best strikeout rate which lines up with a career best swinging strike rate and a career best zone contact. If he drops any farther, he becomes a real bargain. 

 

Top 200 Players Rising

None

 

Top 200 Players Falling

Spencer Steer (-12.64) – I am not surprised to see Steer drop after the signing of Jeimer Candelario and the fact the Reds have not traded anyone else. I don’t think there is a ton of reason to think Steer loses much time in the equation, but if the loss of time is spread out amongst a bunch of guys, Steer would lose a little. I think it is fair to think he doesn’t repeat the 665 plate appearances he got last year, but he is a pretty good bet for 575-600. 

Christian Encarnacion Strand (-39.43) – I think CES’ drop is completely a reaction to the signing of Candelario. With Candelario in town, Encarnacion-Strand is likely a bench bat or is heading to the minors. His ADP is still too high given those options. If the Reds move a piece before Opening Day, then he could become a bargain. 

Alec Bohm (-14.09) – Why is Bohm dropping? To be honest, it is hard to know. I think there is some thought because he has a lower ceiling than other players going around him. However, Bohm has an extremely safe floor so in deeper formats, he makes a lot of sense at his previous ADP, much less his current one. 

 

Top 300 Players Rising

Jeimer Candelario (+42.71) – Candelario is continuing to rise after signing a three year deal in Cincinnati. While the move is a little baffling from a real life perspective, from a fantasy perspective, it is great for his value. Candelario had a career best 22 home runs for the Nationals and now moves to the best park in baseball for power. He won’t become a 30 homer guy, but he should retain most of the power gains from last year or improve upon them. 

Anthony Rizzo (+28.64) – Rizzo is coming off of a lost second half of a season in which he missed a ton of time with concussion symptoms. Prior to the concussion, Rizzo was playing really well and then struggled afterwards. He is reportedly healthy and looking good so far in camp. His ADP was so low to begin with and with this good news, he is looking like he is still a pretty good bargain. 

 

Top 300 Players Falling

None

 

Others of Note

Kyle Manzardo (-23.02) –  I am a little surprised to see Manzardo drop, especially considering he is projected to make the Guardians Opening Day roster. Manzardo is not your typical first base prospect because he lacks big power, but he has a great hit tool. I don’t love him from a fantasy perspective this season as the Guardians picked up Deyvison De Los Santos in the Rule 5 draft which means if they want to keep De Los Santos, Manzardo may be the one that gets sent back to the minors. 

Jake Cronenworth (+23.78) –  I think Cronenworth is rising because he has guaranteed playing time in the San Diego offense. He could be a decent accumulator, but he has a pretty boring profile for the most part. 

DJ LeMahieu (+49.85) – I think what I just wrote about Cronenworth could be said for DJL, but the difference is that LeMahieu could lead off for the Yankees on occasion which means he would hit in front of Soto, Judge and Rizzo. His price is still really cheap and a nice little multi positional eligible leadoff hitter. 

 

First Base ADP Market Report: 2/12/2024
12/10/23-2/12/24 Player Team Position(s) 11/1/23-12/9/23 10/1/23-10/31/23 Change
8.79 Freddie Freeman LAD 1B 9.62 9.31 0.83
16.79 Bryce Harper PHI 1B 15.23 14.38 -1.56
17.33 Matt Olson ATL 1B 19.85 16.62 2.52
28.58 Pete Alonso NYM 1B 27.92 26.08 -0.66
33.51 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR 1B 33.38 31.85 -0.13
61.79 Cody Bellinger CHC 1B, OF 50.23 58.08 -11.56
83.78 Paul Goldschmidt STL 1B 79.23 79.62 -4.55
93.41 Christian Walker ARZ 1B 85.62 85.69 -7.79
112.13 Triston Casas BOS 1B 103.46 113.85 -8.67
113.02 Spencer Steer CIN 1B, 3B, OF 100.38 99.85 -12.64
124.02 Spencer Torkelson DET 1B 119.23 114.08 -4.79
128.09 Josh Naylor CLE 1B 126.15 133.08 -1.94
137.21 Salvador Perez KC C, 1B 148.38 151.31 11.17
138.82 Yandy Diaz TB 1B 143.38 131.46 4.56
158.12 Christian Encarnacion-Strand CIN 1B 118.69 135.54 -39.43
170.63 Alec Bohm PHI 1B, 3B 156.54 161 -14.09
179.06 Vinnie Pasquantino KC 1B 172.15 182.08 -6.91
181.66 Isaac Paredes TB 1B, 3B 170.92 179.15 -10.74
200.31 Rhys Hoskins PHI 1B 210.31 210.15 10
210.15 Nathaniel Lowe TEX 1B 196.85 186.77 -13.3
216.44 Jeimer Candelario CIN 1B, 3B 259.15 296.15 42.71
224.26 Brandon Drury LAA 1B, 2B 237.54 244.38 13.28
235.53 Andrew Vaughn CWS 1B 228.92 227.92 -6.61
242.52 Ryan Mountcastle BAL 1B 228.46 223.46 -14.06
263.81 Justin Turner BOS 1B 253 244.15 -10.81
276.51 Anthony Rizzo NYY 1B 305.15 318.38 28.64
279.98 Josh Bell MIA 1B 281.62 299.46 1.64
284.58 Jose Abreu HOU 1B 288.54 283.54 3.96
312.63 Ty France SEA 1B 337.31 363.62 24.68
329.82 Wilmer Flores SF 1B, 3B 334.77 346.62 4.95
334.23 Luke Raley Jr. TB 1B, OF 342.77 344.46 8.54
343.58 Alex Kirilloff MIN 1B, OF 346.15 339 2.57
344.94 Kyle Manzardo TB 1B 321.92 322.69 -23.02
355.14 Jake Cronenworth SD 1B, 2B 378.92 387.38 23.78
367.07 DJ LeMahieu NYY 1B, 3B 416.92 406.62 49.85
379.76 LaMonte Wade Jr. SF 1B, OF 382.85 406.69 3.09
403.68 Elehuris Montero COL 1B 369.69 387.92 -33.99
409.26 Ryan O’Hearn BAL 1B, OF 431 432.46 21.74
423.73 Rowdy Tellez MLW 1B 503.31 431.46 79.58
423.85 Nolan Schanuel LAA 1B 414.38 419.54 -9.47
430.78 Carlos Santana MLW 1B 424.62 408.15 -6.16
433.36 Ryan Noda OAK 1B 434.92 419.31 1.56
460.21 Cavan Biggio TOR 1B, 2B, OF 475.46 481.38 15.25
513.13 C.J. Cron LAA 1B 476.92 466.08 -36.21
520.14 Matt Mervis CHC 1B 459 433.62 -61.14
544.68 Gabriel Arias CLE 1B, SS 546.62 550.46 1.94
558.01 Brandon Belt TOR 1B 561.54 540.62 3.53
563.69 Jake Bauers MLW 1B, OF 590.54 727.08 26.85
581.08 Gio Urshela LAA 1B, 3B 577.31 624.23 -3.77
585.04 Garrett Cooper SD 1B 596.92 597 11.88
600.78 Connor Joe PIT 1B, OF 627.23 645.85 26.45
602.79 Nick Loftin KC 1B 588.85 572.08 -13.94
616.88 Joey Gallo MIN 1B, OF 694.92 646.38 78.04
629.89 Owen Miller MLW 1B, 2B, 3B 646.23 686.54 16.34
678.07 Nick Pratto KC 1B, OF 619.62 660.08 -58.45
680.55 Joey Votto CIN 1B 726 676 45.45
686.2 Gavin Sheets CWS 1B, OF 717.85 687.54 31.65
698.69 Troy Johnston MIA 1B 721.77 678.92 23.08
711.32 Luken Baker STL 1B 676.23 658.62 -35.09
725.39 Spencer Horwitz TOR 1B 724.62 713.54 -0.77
729.24 Donovan Solano MIN 1B, 2B 731.92 707.85 2.68
730.19 Mike Moustakas LAA 1B, 3B 701.62 712.92 -28.57
731.71 Dominic Smith WAS 1B 689.31 601.85 -42.4
736.11 Bobby Dalbec BOS 1B 721.38 716.15 -14.73
739.58 Keston Hiura MLW 1B 686.15 722.31 -53.43
746.97 Trey Mancini CHC 1B NA 745.08 NA
747.83 Jared Walsh LAA 1B 742.92 688.69 -4.91
749.48 Michael Toglia COL 1B 749.38 736.08 -0.1
750.18 Jon Singleton HOU 1B NA 746.08 NA
750.64 Haydn McGeary CHC 1B NA 749.23 NA
SOURCE: https://nfc.shgn.com/adp/baseball
ADP is based on NFBC Draft Champions leagues





Justin is the co-host on The Sleeper and The Bust Podcast and writes for Rotographs covering the Roto Riteup as well as other periodic articles. In addition to his work at Rotographs, Justin is the lead fantasy writer/analyst and co-owner for FriendswithFantasyBenefits.com, and the owner of The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational. He is also a certified addiction treatment counselor. Follow Justin on Twitter @JustinMasonFWFB.

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abbate5member
3 months ago

1B is deep, not in terms of top talent, but it seems like after the top tier its pretty much a crapshoot

Last edited 3 months ago by abbate5
Steve017member
3 months ago
Reply to  abbate5

Agree. In a 12-team league, I’m inclined not to reach for 1B. If value falls into my lap I will take advantage. I also have other pressing priorities – other than 1B – for my first 3 picks in a snake draft . . .