First Base ADP Market Report: 2/12/2024
As we hit the beginning of draft season, it is important to monitor where players are being drafted on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day. You can read all the Market Reports here.
Top 100 Players Rising
None
Top 100 Players Falling
Cody Bellinger (-11.56) – Bellinger is falling because he hasn’t signed yet. He will likely move up quite a bit once he does sign which should happen any day now. Bellinger is coming off of a season in which he hit .307/.356/.525 with 26 home runs and 20 stolen bases. He had a career best strikeout rate which lines up with a career best swinging strike rate and a career best zone contact. If he drops any farther, he becomes a real bargain.
Top 200 Players Rising
None
Top 200 Players Falling
Spencer Steer (-12.64) – I am not surprised to see Steer drop after the signing of Jeimer Candelario and the fact the Reds have not traded anyone else. I don’t think there is a ton of reason to think Steer loses much time in the equation, but if the loss of time is spread out amongst a bunch of guys, Steer would lose a little. I think it is fair to think he doesn’t repeat the 665 plate appearances he got last year, but he is a pretty good bet for 575-600.
Christian Encarnacion Strand (-39.43) – I think CES’ drop is completely a reaction to the signing of Candelario. With Candelario in town, Encarnacion-Strand is likely a bench bat or is heading to the minors. His ADP is still too high given those options. If the Reds move a piece before Opening Day, then he could become a bargain.
Alec Bohm (-14.09) – Why is Bohm dropping? To be honest, it is hard to know. I think there is some thought because he has a lower ceiling than other players going around him. However, Bohm has an extremely safe floor so in deeper formats, he makes a lot of sense at his previous ADP, much less his current one.
Top 300 Players Rising
Jeimer Candelario (+42.71) – Candelario is continuing to rise after signing a three year deal in Cincinnati. While the move is a little baffling from a real life perspective, from a fantasy perspective, it is great for his value. Candelario had a career best 22 home runs for the Nationals and now moves to the best park in baseball for power. He won’t become a 30 homer guy, but he should retain most of the power gains from last year or improve upon them.
Anthony Rizzo (+28.64) – Rizzo is coming off of a lost second half of a season in which he missed a ton of time with concussion symptoms. Prior to the concussion, Rizzo was playing really well and then struggled afterwards. He is reportedly healthy and looking good so far in camp. His ADP was so low to begin with and with this good news, he is looking like he is still a pretty good bargain.
Top 300 Players Falling
None
Others of Note
Kyle Manzardo (-23.02) – I am a little surprised to see Manzardo drop, especially considering he is projected to make the Guardians Opening Day roster. Manzardo is not your typical first base prospect because he lacks big power, but he has a great hit tool. I don’t love him from a fantasy perspective this season as the Guardians picked up Deyvison De Los Santos in the Rule 5 draft which means if they want to keep De Los Santos, Manzardo may be the one that gets sent back to the minors.
Jake Cronenworth (+23.78) – I think Cronenworth is rising because he has guaranteed playing time in the San Diego offense. He could be a decent accumulator, but he has a pretty boring profile for the most part.
DJ LeMahieu (+49.85) – I think what I just wrote about Cronenworth could be said for DJL, but the difference is that LeMahieu could lead off for the Yankees on occasion which means he would hit in front of Soto, Judge and Rizzo. His price is still really cheap and a nice little multi positional eligible leadoff hitter.
| 12/10/23-2/12/24 | Player | Team | Position(s) | 11/1/23-12/9/23 | 10/1/23-10/31/23 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.79 | Freddie Freeman | LAD | 1B | 9.62 | 9.31 | 0.83 |
| 16.79 | Bryce Harper | PHI | 1B | 15.23 | 14.38 | -1.56 |
| 17.33 | Matt Olson | ATL | 1B | 19.85 | 16.62 | 2.52 |
| 28.58 | Pete Alonso | NYM | 1B | 27.92 | 26.08 | -0.66 |
| 33.51 | Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | TOR | 1B | 33.38 | 31.85 | -0.13 |
| 61.79 | Cody Bellinger | CHC | 1B, OF | 50.23 | 58.08 | -11.56 |
| 83.78 | Paul Goldschmidt | STL | 1B | 79.23 | 79.62 | -4.55 |
| 93.41 | Christian Walker | ARZ | 1B | 85.62 | 85.69 | -7.79 |
| 112.13 | Triston Casas | BOS | 1B | 103.46 | 113.85 | -8.67 |
| 113.02 | Spencer Steer | CIN | 1B, 3B, OF | 100.38 | 99.85 | -12.64 |
| 124.02 | Spencer Torkelson | DET | 1B | 119.23 | 114.08 | -4.79 |
| 128.09 | Josh Naylor | CLE | 1B | 126.15 | 133.08 | -1.94 |
| 137.21 | Salvador Perez | KC | C, 1B | 148.38 | 151.31 | 11.17 |
| 138.82 | Yandy Diaz | TB | 1B | 143.38 | 131.46 | 4.56 |
| 158.12 | Christian Encarnacion-Strand | CIN | 1B | 118.69 | 135.54 | -39.43 |
| 170.63 | Alec Bohm | PHI | 1B, 3B | 156.54 | 161 | -14.09 |
| 179.06 | Vinnie Pasquantino | KC | 1B | 172.15 | 182.08 | -6.91 |
| 181.66 | Isaac Paredes | TB | 1B, 3B | 170.92 | 179.15 | -10.74 |
| 200.31 | Rhys Hoskins | PHI | 1B | 210.31 | 210.15 | 10 |
| 210.15 | Nathaniel Lowe | TEX | 1B | 196.85 | 186.77 | -13.3 |
| 216.44 | Jeimer Candelario | CIN | 1B, 3B | 259.15 | 296.15 | 42.71 |
| 224.26 | Brandon Drury | LAA | 1B, 2B | 237.54 | 244.38 | 13.28 |
| 235.53 | Andrew Vaughn | CWS | 1B | 228.92 | 227.92 | -6.61 |
| 242.52 | Ryan Mountcastle | BAL | 1B | 228.46 | 223.46 | -14.06 |
| 263.81 | Justin Turner | BOS | 1B | 253 | 244.15 | -10.81 |
| 276.51 | Anthony Rizzo | NYY | 1B | 305.15 | 318.38 | 28.64 |
| 279.98 | Josh Bell | MIA | 1B | 281.62 | 299.46 | 1.64 |
| 284.58 | Jose Abreu | HOU | 1B | 288.54 | 283.54 | 3.96 |
| 312.63 | Ty France | SEA | 1B | 337.31 | 363.62 | 24.68 |
| 329.82 | Wilmer Flores | SF | 1B, 3B | 334.77 | 346.62 | 4.95 |
| 334.23 | Luke Raley Jr. | TB | 1B, OF | 342.77 | 344.46 | 8.54 |
| 343.58 | Alex Kirilloff | MIN | 1B, OF | 346.15 | 339 | 2.57 |
| 344.94 | Kyle Manzardo | TB | 1B | 321.92 | 322.69 | -23.02 |
| 355.14 | Jake Cronenworth | SD | 1B, 2B | 378.92 | 387.38 | 23.78 |
| 367.07 | DJ LeMahieu | NYY | 1B, 3B | 416.92 | 406.62 | 49.85 |
| 379.76 | LaMonte Wade Jr. | SF | 1B, OF | 382.85 | 406.69 | 3.09 |
| 403.68 | Elehuris Montero | COL | 1B | 369.69 | 387.92 | -33.99 |
| 409.26 | Ryan O’Hearn | BAL | 1B, OF | 431 | 432.46 | 21.74 |
| 423.73 | Rowdy Tellez | MLW | 1B | 503.31 | 431.46 | 79.58 |
| 423.85 | Nolan Schanuel | LAA | 1B | 414.38 | 419.54 | -9.47 |
| 430.78 | Carlos Santana | MLW | 1B | 424.62 | 408.15 | -6.16 |
| 433.36 | Ryan Noda | OAK | 1B | 434.92 | 419.31 | 1.56 |
| 460.21 | Cavan Biggio | TOR | 1B, 2B, OF | 475.46 | 481.38 | 15.25 |
| 513.13 | C.J. Cron | LAA | 1B | 476.92 | 466.08 | -36.21 |
| 520.14 | Matt Mervis | CHC | 1B | 459 | 433.62 | -61.14 |
| 544.68 | Gabriel Arias | CLE | 1B, SS | 546.62 | 550.46 | 1.94 |
| 558.01 | Brandon Belt | TOR | 1B | 561.54 | 540.62 | 3.53 |
| 563.69 | Jake Bauers | MLW | 1B, OF | 590.54 | 727.08 | 26.85 |
| 581.08 | Gio Urshela | LAA | 1B, 3B | 577.31 | 624.23 | -3.77 |
| 585.04 | Garrett Cooper | SD | 1B | 596.92 | 597 | 11.88 |
| 600.78 | Connor Joe | PIT | 1B, OF | 627.23 | 645.85 | 26.45 |
| 602.79 | Nick Loftin | KC | 1B | 588.85 | 572.08 | -13.94 |
| 616.88 | Joey Gallo | MIN | 1B, OF | 694.92 | 646.38 | 78.04 |
| 629.89 | Owen Miller | MLW | 1B, 2B, 3B | 646.23 | 686.54 | 16.34 |
| 678.07 | Nick Pratto | KC | 1B, OF | 619.62 | 660.08 | -58.45 |
| 680.55 | Joey Votto | CIN | 1B | 726 | 676 | 45.45 |
| 686.2 | Gavin Sheets | CWS | 1B, OF | 717.85 | 687.54 | 31.65 |
| 698.69 | Troy Johnston | MIA | 1B | 721.77 | 678.92 | 23.08 |
| 711.32 | Luken Baker | STL | 1B | 676.23 | 658.62 | -35.09 |
| 725.39 | Spencer Horwitz | TOR | 1B | 724.62 | 713.54 | -0.77 |
| 729.24 | Donovan Solano | MIN | 1B, 2B | 731.92 | 707.85 | 2.68 |
| 730.19 | Mike Moustakas | LAA | 1B, 3B | 701.62 | 712.92 | -28.57 |
| 731.71 | Dominic Smith | WAS | 1B | 689.31 | 601.85 | -42.4 |
| 736.11 | Bobby Dalbec | BOS | 1B | 721.38 | 716.15 | -14.73 |
| 739.58 | Keston Hiura | MLW | 1B | 686.15 | 722.31 | -53.43 |
| 746.97 | Trey Mancini | CHC | 1B | NA | 745.08 | NA |
| 747.83 | Jared Walsh | LAA | 1B | 742.92 | 688.69 | -4.91 |
| 749.48 | Michael Toglia | COL | 1B | 749.38 | 736.08 | -0.1 |
| 750.18 | Jon Singleton | HOU | 1B | NA | 746.08 | NA |
| 750.64 | Haydn McGeary | CHC | 1B | NA | 749.23 | NA |
Justin is the co-host on The Sleeper and The Bust Podcast and writes for Rotographs covering the Roto Riteup as well as other periodic articles. In addition to his work at Rotographs, Justin is the lead fantasy writer/analyst and co-owner for FriendswithFantasyBenefits.com, and the owner of The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational. He is also a certified addiction treatment counselor. Follow Justin on Twitter @JustinMasonFWFB.
1B is deep, not in terms of top talent, but it seems like after the top tier its pretty much a crapshoot
Agree. In a 12-team league, I’m inclined not to reach for 1B. If value falls into my lap I will take advantage. I also have other pressing priorities – other than 1B – for my first 3 picks in a snake draft . . .