First Base ADP Market Report: 12/9/2023

As we hit the beginning of draft season, it is important to monitor where players are being drafted on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day. You can read all the Market Reports here.

Top 100 Players Rising


Top 100 Players Falling


Top 200 Players Rising

Triston Casas (+10.39) – Casas is rising after a big second half where he hit 15 home runs with a .317 average. Casas had struggled in the first half, hitting just .225 but he had been pretty unlucky on balls in play in spite of really nice underlying statistics, so the breakout in the second half was somewhat predictable. However, his second half surge wasn’t fully supported by the underlying statistics. His zone contact was 78% which was among the worst in baseball. He also had an unsustainably high BABIP and HR/FB%. This doesn’t even mention that he struggles against left handed pitching, hitting .215 against southpaws this season. He was unlucky in the first half and lucky in the second which I think speaks to what is likely a more volatile profile than he is being given credit for. 

Christian Encarnacion-Strand (+16.85) – Encarnacion-Strand has been rising as a popular name in a great park and lineup that you don’t have to pay a ton for. The issue with him is playing time. The Reds added Candelario this offseason and have talked about not wanting to move players like Jonathan India and Matt McLain. There are only so many spots in the roster and I think the Cincy lineup will be more frustrating than first expected in 2024 which makes it hard to trust a guy like Encarncion-Strand because he could play every day and pop or end up in the minors. 

Top 200 Players Falling

Yandy Diaz (-11.92) – It is interesting to see Diaz drop after his best season yet where he hit .330/.410/.522 with 22 home runs and 98 runs scored. So, why is he dropping? I think it may be partly due to other guys around rising and the frustration of Diaz struggling with a number of nagging injuries that made him hard to play in weekly formats sometimes. There isn’t much to dislike though, he plays everyday when healthy and is eligible at first and third which is always nice. 

Nathaniel Lowe (-10.08) –  Lowe is dropping after a huge drop in power from 27 home runs in 2022 to 17 last season. He did get a bit unlucky in that department, but he also doesn’t barrel the ball a ton and is much more of a gap hitter than an over the fence type of hitter. He plays every day and can be an accumulator, but I would project him for low 20s home runs rather than a return to 25+

Top 300 Players Rising

Josh Bell (+17.84) – Bell is rising after a decent 2023 where he hit .247/.325/.419 with 22 home runs and 74 RBI. I think his rise is just a correction from being too low early on. He doesn’t have the huge upside that we though he might after his insane 2019 season, but he plays every day and is a good hitter that takes walks and he can be counted on for 20+ home runs. 

Top 300 Players Falling


Others of Note

Ty France (+26.31) – I think France’s rise is another correction for just being too low in the ADP early on. France is a boring accumulator, but that has value in the middle of a decent lineup for deeper league players.  

Jake Bauers (+136.54) – Bauers is rising after being traded to Milwaukee where he looks to have a role in a strong side platoon. Bauers doesn’t have any carrying tool in fantasy but he could be an accumulator if he can get regular playing time for the Brewers. 

Matt Mervis (-25.38) – Mervis was the talk of the industry this time last year before getting blocked by the Cubs offseason additions. Right now he looks like he may get a shot, but I won’t believe it until I see it and the market agrees with me. I think the Cubs could look to move him in a deal for pitching and that would make me a buyer if the landing spot is good. 

Rowdy Tellez (-71.85) – This drop should be short lived now that Tellez has signed. However, while he should raise the ADP with a job, I don’t know if he will get a ton of love since his landing spot is in Pittsburgh. That being said, the Pirates have shown the willingness to play veterans at first base as they gave full run to guys like Michael Chavis and Carlos Santana the last few seasons. If Tellez can get 500+ plate appearances again, he could be a 25+ home run bat and with the Pirates lineup improving the counting stats that go along with those home runs won’t be as bad as it used to be for Pirates bats. 

Dominic Smith (-87.46) – This makes sense since he was non-tendered by the Nationals. His value will be tied up wherever he lands, but at this point I don’t think he ever becomes the player some thought he might be. 


First Base ADP Market Report: 12/9/2023
11/1/23-12/9/23 Player Team Position(s) 10/1/23-10/31/23 Change
9.62 Freddie Freeman LAD 1B 9.31 -0.31
15.23 Bryce Harper PHI 1B 14.38 -0.85
19.85 Matt Olson ATL 1B 16.62 -3.23
27.92 Pete Alonso NYM 1B 26.08 -1.84
33.38 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR 1B 31.85 -1.53
50.23 Cody Bellinger CHC 1B, OF 58.08 7.85
79.23 Paul Goldschmidt STL 1B 79.62 0.39
85.62 Christian Walker ARZ 1B 85.69 0.07
100.38 Spencer Steer CIN 1B, 3B, OF 99.85 -0.53
103.46 Triston Casas BOS 1B 113.85 10.39
118.69 Christian Encarnacion-Strand CIN 1B 135.54 16.85
119.23 Spencer Torkelson DET 1B 114.08 -5.15
126.15 Josh Naylor CLE 1B 133.08 6.93
143.38 Yandy Diaz TB 1B 131.46 -11.92
148.38 Salvador Perez KC C, 1B 151.31 2.93
156.54 Alec Bohm PHI 1B, 3B 161 4.46
170.92 Isaac Paredes TB 1B, 3B 179.15 8.23
172.15 Vinnie Pasquantino KC 1B 182.08 9.93
196.85 Nathaniel Lowe TEX 1B 186.77 -10.08
210.31 Rhys Hoskins PHI 1B 210.15 -0.16
228.46 Ryan Mountcastle BAL 1B 223.46 -5
228.92 Andrew Vaughn CWS 1B 227.92 -1
237.54 Brandon Drury LAA 1B, 2B 244.38 6.84
253 Justin Turner BOS 1B 244.15 -8.85
259.15 Jeimer Candelario CIN 1B, 3B 296.15 37
281.62 Josh Bell MIA 1B 299.46 17.84
288.54 Jose Abreu HOU 1B 283.54 -5
305.15 Anthony Rizzo NYY 1B 318.38 13.23
321.92 Kyle Manzardo TB 1B 322.69 0.77
334.77 Wilmer Flores SF 1B, 3B 346.62 11.85
337.31 Ty France SEA 1B 363.62 26.31
342.77 Luke Raley Jr. TB 1B, OF 344.46 1.69
346.15 Alex Kirilloff MIN 1B, OF 339 -7.15
369.69 Elehuris Montero COL 1B 387.92 18.23
378.92 Jake Cronenworth SD 1B, 2B 387.38 8.46
382.85 LaMonte Wade Jr. SF 1B, OF 406.69 23.84
414.38 Nolan Schanuel LAA 1B 419.54 5.16
416.92 DJ LeMahieu NYY 1B, 3B 406.62 -10.3
424.62 Carlos Santana MLW 1B 408.15 -16.47
431 Ryan O’Hearn BAL 1B, OF 432.46 1.46
434.92 Ryan Noda OAK 1B 419.31 -15.61
459 Matt Mervis CHC 1B 433.62 -25.38
475.46 Cavan Biggio TOR 1B, 2B, OF 481.38 5.92
476.92 C.J. Cron LAA 1B 466.08 -10.84
503.31 Rowdy Tellez MLW 1B 431.46 -71.85
546.62 Gabriel Arias CLE 1B, SS 550.46 3.84
561.54 Brandon Belt TOR 1B 540.62 -20.92
577.31 Gio Urshela LAA 1B, 3B 624.23 46.92
588.85 Nick Loftin KC 1B 572.08 -16.77
590.54 Jake Bauers MLW 1B, OF 727.08 136.54
596.92 Garrett Cooper SD 1B 597 0.08
619.62 Nick Pratto KC 1B, OF 660.08 40.46
627.23 Connor Joe PIT 1B, OF 645.85 18.62
646.23 Owen Miller MLW 1B, 2B, 3B 686.54 40.31
676.23 Luken Baker STL 1B 658.62 -17.61
686.15 Keston Hiura MLW 1B 722.31 36.16
689.31 Dominic Smith WAS 1B 601.85 -87.46
694.92 Joey Gallo MIN 1B, OF 646.38 -48.54
701.62 Mike Moustakas LAA 1B, 3B 712.92 11.3
717.85 Gavin Sheets CWS 1B, OF 687.54 -30.31
721.38 Bobby Dalbec BOS 1B 716.15 -5.23
721.77 Troy Johnston MIA 1B 678.92 -42.85
724.62 Spencer Horwitz TOR 1B 713.54 -11.08
726 Joey Votto CIN 1B 676 -50
731.92 Donovan Solano MIN 1B, 2B 707.85 -24.07
742.92 Jared Walsh LAA 1B 688.69 -54.23
749.38 Michael Toglia COL 1B 736.08 -13.3
NA Frank Schwindel CHC 1B 738.77 NA
NA Yuli Gurriel MIA 1B 739.38 NA
NA Jared Young STL 1B 741.38 NA
NA Trey Mancini CHC 1B 745.08 NA
NA Jon Singleton HOU 1B 746.08 NA
NA Haydn McGeary CHC 1B 749.23 NA
ADP is based on NFBC Draft Champions leagues

Justin is the co-host on The Sleeper and The Bust Podcast and writes for Rotographs covering the Roto Riteup as well as other periodic articles. In addition to his work at Rotographs, Justin is the lead fantasy writer/analyst and co-owner for, and the owner of The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational. He is also a certified addiction treatment counselor. Follow Justin on Twitter @JustinMasonFWFB.

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5 months ago

I know it’s a typo but the idea of a world in which Josh Bell swipes 74 bases is amusing to me.