2023

December 15, 2023

As we hit the beginning of draft season, it is important to monitor where players are being drafted on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day. You can read all the Market Reports here.

Top 100 Players Rising

None

Top 100 Players Falling

None

Top 200 Players Rising

Triston Casas (+10.39) – Casas is rising after a big second half where he hit 15 home runs with a .317 average. Casas had struggled in the first half, hitting just .225 but he had been pretty unlucky on balls in play in spite of really nice underlying statistics, so the breakout in the second half was somewhat predictable. However, his second half surge wasn’t fully supported by the underlying statistics. His zone contact was 78% which was among the worst in baseball. He also had an unsustainably high BABIP and HR/FB%. This doesn’t even mention that he struggles against left handed pitching, hitting .215 against southpaws this season. He was unlucky in the first half and lucky in the second which I think speaks to what is likely a more volatile profile than he is being given credit for.

Christian Encarnacion-Strand (+16.85) – Encarnacion-Strand has been rising as a popular name in a great park and lineup that you don’t have to pay a ton for. The issue with him is playing time. The Reds added Candelario this offseason and have talked about not wanting to move players like Jonathan India and Matt McLain. There are only so many spots in the roster and I think the Cincy lineup will be more frustrating than first expected in 2024 which makes it hard to trust a guy like Encarncion-Strand because he could play every day and pop or end up in the minors.

Top 200 Players Falling

Yandy Diaz (-11.92) – It is interesting to see Diaz drop after his best season yet where he hit .330/.410/.522 with 22 home runs and 98 runs scored. So, why is he dropping? I think it may be partly due to other guys around rising and the frustration of Diaz struggling with a number of nagging injuries that made him hard to play in weekly formats sometimes. There isn’t much to dislike though, he plays everyday when healthy and is eligible at first and third which is always nice.

Nathaniel Lowe (-10.08) – Lowe is dropping after a huge drop in power from 27 home runs in 2022 to 17 last season. He did get a bit unlucky in that department, but he also doesn’t barrel the ball a ton and is much more of a gap hitter than an over the fence type of hitter. He plays every day and can be an accumulator, but I would project him for low 20s home runs rather than a return to 25+

Top 300 Players Rising

Josh Bell (+17.84) – Bell is rising after a decent 2023 where he hit .247/.325/.419 with 22 home runs and 74 RBI. I think his rise is just a correction from being too low early on. He doesn’t have the huge upside that we though he might after his insane 2019 season, but he plays every day and is a good hitter that takes walks and he can be counted on for 20+ home runs.

Top 300 Players Falling

None

Others of Note

Ty France (+26.31) – I think France’s rise is another correction for just being too low in the ADP early on. France is a boring accumulator, but that has value in the middle of a decent lineup for deeper league players.

Jake Bauers (+136.54) – Bauers is rising after being traded to Milwaukee where he looks to have a role in a strong side platoon. Bauers doesn’t have any carrying tool in fantasy but he could be an accumulator if he can get regular playing time for the Brewers.

Matt Mervis (-25.38) – Mervis was the talk of the industry this time last year before getting blocked by the Cubs offseason additions. Right now he looks like he may get a shot, but I won’t believe it until I see it and the market agrees with me. I think the Cubs could look to move him in a deal for pitching and that would make me a buyer if the landing spot is good.

Rowdy Tellez (-71.85) – This drop should be short lived now that Tellez has signed. However, while he should raise the ADP with a job, I don’t know if he will get a ton of love since his landing spot is in Pittsburgh. That being said, the Pirates have shown the willingness to play veterans at first base as they gave full run to guys like Michael Chavis and Carlos Santana the last few seasons. If Tellez can get 500+ plate appearances again, he could be a 25+ home run bat and with the Pirates lineup improving the counting stats that go along with those home runs won’t be as bad as it used to be for Pirates bats.

Dominic Smith (-87.46) – This makes sense since he was non-tendered by the Nationals. His value will be tied up wherever he lands, but at this point I don’t think he ever becomes the player some thought he might be.

First Base ADP Market Report: 12/9/2023

11/1/23-12/9/23	Player	Team	Position(s)	10/1/23-10/31/23	Change
9.62	Freddie Freeman	LAD	1B	9.31	-0.31
15.23	Bryce Harper	PHI	1B	14.38	-0.85
19.85	Matt Olson	ATL	1B	16.62	-3.23
27.92	Pete Alonso	NYM	1B	26.08	-1.84
33.38	Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	TOR	1B	31.85	-1.53
50.23	Cody Bellinger	CHC	1B, OF	58.08	7.85
79.23	Paul Goldschmidt	STL	1B	79.62	0.39
85.62	Christian Walker	ARZ	1B	85.69	0.07
100.38	Spencer Steer	CIN	1B, 3B, OF	99.85	-0.53
103.46	Triston Casas	BOS	1B	113.85	10.39
118.69	Christian Encarnacion-Strand	CIN	1B	135.54	16.85
119.23	Spencer Torkelson	DET	1B	114.08	-5.15
126.15	Josh Naylor	CLE	1B	133.08	6.93
143.38	Yandy Diaz	TB	1B	131.46	-11.92
148.38	Salvador Perez	KC	C, 1B	151.31	2.93
156.54	Alec Bohm	PHI	1B, 3B	161	4.46
170.92	Isaac Paredes	TB	1B, 3B	179.15	8.23
172.15	Vinnie Pasquantino	KC	1B	182.08	9.93
196.85	Nathaniel Lowe	TEX	1B	186.77	-10.08
210.31	Rhys Hoskins	PHI	1B	210.15	-0.16
228.46	Ryan Mountcastle	BAL	1B	223.46	-5
228.92	Andrew Vaughn	CWS	1B	227.92	-1
237.54	Brandon Drury	LAA	1B, 2B	244.38	6.84
253	Justin Turner	BOS	1B	244.15	-8.85
259.15	Jeimer Candelario	CIN	1B, 3B	296.15	37
281.62	Josh Bell	MIA	1B	299.46	17.84
288.54	Jose Abreu	HOU	1B	283.54	-5
305.15	Anthony Rizzo	NYY	1B	318.38	13.23
321.92	Kyle Manzardo	TB	1B	322.69	0.77
334.77	Wilmer Flores	SF	1B, 3B	346.62	11.85
337.31	Ty France	SEA	1B	363.62	26.31
342.77	Luke Raley Jr.	TB	1B, OF	344.46	1.69
346.15	Alex Kirilloff	MIN	1B, OF	339	-7.15
369.69	Elehuris Montero	COL	1B	387.92	18.23
378.92	Jake Cronenworth	SD	1B, 2B	387.38	8.46
382.85	LaMonte Wade Jr.	SF	1B, OF	406.69	23.84
414.38	Nolan Schanuel	LAA	1B	419.54	5.16
416.92	DJ LeMahieu	NYY	1B, 3B	406.62	-10.3
424.62	Carlos Santana	MLW	1B	408.15	-16.47
431	Ryan O’Hearn	BAL	1B, OF	432.46	1.46
434.92	Ryan Noda	OAK	1B	419.31	-15.61
459	Matt Mervis	CHC	1B	433.62	-25.38
475.46	Cavan Biggio	TOR	1B, 2B, OF	481.38	5.92
476.92	C.J. Cron	LAA	1B	466.08	-10.84
503.31	Rowdy Tellez	MLW	1B	431.46	-71.85
546.62	Gabriel Arias	CLE	1B, SS	550.46	3.84
561.54	Brandon Belt	TOR	1B	540.62	-20.92
577.31	Gio Urshela	LAA	1B, 3B	624.23	46.92
588.85	Nick Loftin	KC	1B	572.08	-16.77
590.54	Jake Bauers	MLW	1B, OF	727.08	136.54
596.92	Garrett Cooper	SD	1B	597	0.08
619.62	Nick Pratto	KC	1B, OF	660.08	40.46
627.23	Connor Joe	PIT	1B, OF	645.85	18.62
646.23	Owen Miller	MLW	1B, 2B, 3B	686.54	40.31
676.23	Luken Baker	STL	1B	658.62	-17.61
686.15	Keston Hiura	MLW	1B	722.31	36.16
689.31	Dominic Smith	WAS	1B	601.85	-87.46
694.92	Joey Gallo	MIN	1B, OF	646.38	-48.54
701.62	Mike Moustakas	LAA	1B, 3B	712.92	11.3
717.85	Gavin Sheets	CWS	1B, OF	687.54	-30.31
721.38	Bobby Dalbec	BOS	1B	716.15	-5.23
721.77	Troy Johnston	MIA	1B	678.92	-42.85
724.62	Spencer Horwitz	TOR	1B	713.54	-11.08
726	Joey Votto	CIN	1B	676	-50
731.92	Donovan Solano	MIN	1B, 2B	707.85	-24.07
742.92	Jared Walsh	LAA	1B	688.69	-54.23
749.38	Michael Toglia	COL	1B	736.08	-13.3
NA	Frank Schwindel	CHC	1B	738.77	NA
NA	Yuli Gurriel	MIA	1B	739.38	NA
NA	Jared Young	STL	1B	741.38	NA
NA	Trey Mancini	CHC	1B	745.08	NA
NA	Jon Singleton	HOU	1B	746.08	NA
NA	Haydn McGeary	CHC	1B	749.23	NA

ADP is based on NFBC Draft Champions leagues