First Base 2024 Fantasy Rankings Review — The Misses

Yesterday, I shared the end of season rankings and dollar values of the 40 first basemen I ranked during the preseason. I began with the hitters that earned a profit of at least $4 on their projected value. Today, let’s dive into the misses, or those that earned at least $8 less than forecasted.

As a reminder, I highlighted all the hits, defined as those who earned at least $4 more than projected, in yellow, and all the misses, defined as those who earned at least $8 less than projected, in red. These were arbitrary minimums, but decided upon so I had enough players to review in each bucket.

This was a bad year for first baseman. Out of the 40 I ranked, a whopping 17 of them earning at least $8 less than projected! That’s crazy. Even more crazy is that three of the top five names ended up being highlighted in red. It wasn’t a good year to buy a top tier first baseman.

Freddie Freeman

Freeman lost his owners $17?! Heading into the season, Freeman had been Mr. Consistency, being a lock to contribute a strong batting average, knock in tons of runs, hit 20 to 30 home runs, and even chip in some steals. Sadly, he was more ordinary than he has been in a long time. His wOBA fell to its lowest mark since 2015 for a couple of reasons. First, his BABIP declined to his lowest mark since…2012! It’s incredible that even an above average .306 mark would represent such a disappointment for him. His batted ball distribution was mostly the same, except his LD% landed at the lowest of his entire career. So this wasn’t even about bad luck, he just hit the lowest rate of the hit types that produce the highest BABIP, which is why his xBA was nearly identical to his actual mark.

Aside from his batting average, his runs scored total was at its lowest over a full season since 2015 as well. He had recorded well over 100 runs in four straight full seasons, so a dip all the way down to 81 was quite the surprise.

Freeman will be entering his age 35 season next year and while none of his other skills have cracked, you have to wonder if he’ll be able to get his LD% back into the mid-to-high 20% range, where he’s lived for his entire career. He’s always been elite at hitting line drives, but that just makes it more difficult to sustain.

Matt Olson

Wow. Olson exploded for 54 home runs in 2023 and posted a .413 wOBA. Obviously, that massively increased his cost this year, so I was eager to see how he’d follow up. Not only did he fail to hold onto last year’s gains, but his HR/FB rate actually plunged to a career worst, while his ISO finished just barely above his career low set in 2018. That’s definitely not what even the most pessimistic of people expected!

His HardHit% hit the second lowest of his career, his maxEV finished well below his last three seasons, and his Barrel%, while still strong, was his lowest since 2018, and the second lowest of his career. The good news is that every other underlying metric was normal, so the disappointing season was driven entirely by the drop in power. At the very least, he should push that HR/FB rate back into the high teen range, simply because it better matches with his other Statcast metrics and is still below his career mark. He might end up being slightly undervalued next year.

Pete Alonso

After an ugly .217 batting average in 2023, Alonso’s BABIP fully rebounded, but this time, his power dropped off. His HR/FB rate and ISO finished at career lows, even though all his Statcast metrics were relatively in line with his history. His strikeout rate did jump a bit, but oddly, his SwStk% improved to a career best. You don’t see that very often!

Overall, these metrics look perfectly good to me, so like Olson, might actually become a slight value pick next year.

Paul Goldschmidt

His lowest HR/FB rate over a full season since 2014, plus the second lowest BABIP of his career is already a bad combination. Throw in a sudden plunge in walk rate to by far the lowest of his career, plus a career worst strikeout rate, and you get yourself the worst offensive season of his career.

At age 37 now, is there a possibility of a rebound? I worry that the increased SwStk% and strikeout rate is evidence that age is taking a toll. He also recorded the highest Zone%, which means pitchers threw him strikes at the highest rate of his career, and yet he couldn’t take advantage. Perhaps there’s a minor dead cat bounce, but he’s clearly no longer a name you’re excited to leave your draft with as your starting first baseman.

Nolan Jones

Holy cow, can we just pretend this season never happened? Sure, he battled injuries throughout the season, limiting him to just 297 PAs, but he also posted just a .287 wOBA. There were two serious oddities here to quickly discuss.

First, he suddenly became an extreme ground ball hitter, as his GB% shot up above 50%, while his FB% slipped below 30%. That’s not how you take advantage of Coors Field or your power skills. Second, his HardHit% was actually higher than in 2023, and while his maxEV took a hit, it was still well above average. Yet, his Barrel% plummeted to just 5.9%, below the league average and nearly a third of what he posted in 2023. As a result, his ISO went from .245 in 2023 to just .094 in 2024!

Was he battling injuries all year that hampered his power? I have no idea, but at his age, you wouldn’t expect him to suddenly lose it. I have no idea what to expect next year as the Rockies constantly shuffled their lineup and Jones played himself into a platoon…at best. He’ll either end up being a bargain on draft day or back in Triple-A.

Yandy Díaz

Díaz hits the ball so hard, as evidenced by his HardHit% and maxEV, but his power output has been sorely lacking, except for his 2023 season, which raised expectations for this year. The power skills are too volatile here to rely on and at age 33, it’s hard to believe he’ll suddenly turn that apparent power into a 30-homer season. Also, his once boosted OBP league value took a hit this year as his walk rate fell to a career low in the single digits.

Spencer Torkelson

Just when you thought the power had blossomed, Torkelson reverts right back to his 2022 self. His HR/FB rate was nearly cut in half, while all his Statcast metrics plunged, looking nothing like that of a guy who was graded with 55/70 Game and 70/70 Raw Power marks. Even when he was demoted to Triple-A and spent half the season there, he was mediocre. He actually struck out at his highest rate ever, while his power was in line with his 2023 Tigers output. That’s better than what he did with the Tigers in 2024, but not what you’d expect from a former uber prospect returning to the minors.

I don’t know what the issue is here, but he’ll certainly be cheap enough in leagues to speculate on next season!

The Injured

Triston Casas struck out more, but upped his HR/FB rate and essentially produced as expected over the half season he played.

Christian Encarnacion-Strand disappointed before suffering a wrist injury that knocked him out for the year. At least he should come cheaper next year and actually make for a reasonable target.

Sooooo, is Kris Bryant done? He was awful when actually taking the field this year, as both his strikeout rate and SwStk% skyrocketed. Perhaps the injuries became too much.

Injuries limited Anthony Rizzo to just 375 PAs, but his HR/FB rate hit a career low, while his FB% dropped to the third lowest of his career, really hampering his power output. One time a solid OBP contributor, he doesn’t even have that going for him anymore given a declining walk rate.

Since 2022, Alex Kirilloff has essentially played a full season, and has posted a line that would qualify right at replacement level in shallow mixed leagues, minus the steals. The problem is staying healthy. I’d also like to see his hold his FB% gains and increase that maxEV, as it’s real hard to deliver a whole lot of power when the hardest you can hit the ball is 108+ MPH.

The Poor Performers

Brandon Drury missed time to injury, but how in the world was he so bad when he took the field?! He posted an impossibly low .217 wOBA and .058 ISO over 360 PAs after a .339 and .235 mark, respectively, last year. Whaaaaaat?!

Welp, so much for Driveline Baseball delivering the magic that Ty France needed to rebound.

After a .295 wOBA in 2023, I guess it wasn’t that surprised that José Abreu was ultimately finished as a productive hitter. It was a solid career José!

Jeimer Candelario missed some time to injury, but a decline in BABIP and weak runs scored and RBI totals killed his value.

I guess his 2022 half season was the fluke for Joey Meneses, eh? He failed to return anywhere close to that performance, and actually completely collapsed at the plate. He probably won’t get another chance.