First Base 2024 Fantasy Rankings Review — The Hits

For the first time this year, the RotoGraphs team introduced a formal, organized positional ranking series that we updated on a weekly basis during spring training and through the season opener. I chose to take ownership of the first base position and you should refresh your memory of my final rankings before the season began. Let’s now review those final rankings and how each of the hitters ultimately performed.

I highlighted all the hits, defined as those who earned at least $4 more than projected, in yellow, and all the misses, defined as those who earned at least $8 less than projected, in red. These were arbitrary minimums, but decided upon so I had enough players to review in each bucket.

This turned out ugly. Look at the sea of red! Of course, the average hitter is going to lose money, thanks mainly to injuries, plus surprises always appear, and the value they earned has to come from somewhere, so it reduces the values of everyone else.

Out of the 40 players I ranked, just six of them earned at least $4 more than they were projected for, and the highest profit was just $6! That’s crazy. Let’s now dive into those six names, the few fantasy owners were thrilled to actually own.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

I wasn’t surprised to get some pushback when I ranked Guerrero Jr. third among first baseman. His ADP was 12 spots behind my fourth ranked hitter, Bryce Harper, and just behind my fifth ranked name Pete Alonso.

I even got a bunch of comments about his projected value:

I’ll take Goldy at $16 over Vlad at $27 every day and twice on Sundays

I question his work ethic and desire to take the game seriously.

I see the management as being the root of the problem. They live analytics and as Yogi Berra said “you can’t think and hit at the same time” I think they gotta let him get back to the basics of if you think you can hit it, hit it.

Yikes! After a ho-hum 2023, the pessimism was real. Goldschmidt over Vlad at their respective costs? Oops! I guess his work ethic got back on track and he woke up one day suddenly deciding to take the game seriously. And Blue Jays management? They dropped the math, facts, and analytics, and told Vlad to hit the ball if he thinks he could!

But seriously, these comments are a reminder that a good or bad season always create narratives to help explain the breakout or bust performance. Unfortunately, they are almost never true, and the player returns back to his normal performance level the following year, when a new narrative pops up…which is most likely false as well. Just like in the stock market, when all you read is bad news on a company, you know that bad news is now baked into the price, making it a good purchase.

This year, Vlad improved both his strikeout rate and SwStk% to career bests, while he cut his IFFB% to the second lowest of his career, en route to a career high BABIP. His xwOBA suggests he was even a bit unlucky, deserving of a mark just over .400.

Given his elite maxEV, HardHit%, and Barrel%, it’s hard to believe there isn’t another 20%+ HR/FB rate in his bat again. I would be shocked if he didn’t record another 40-homer season.

Anthony Santander

Though he’d been a strong source of home runs and RBI the previous two seasons, no one really wanted to leave the auction with Anthony Santander as their first baseman. Right? He doesn’t steal bases or hit for average, so as essentially a two-category guy, there’s just little excitement in rostering him.

Then he decided to go nuts with the fly ball rate, upping his FB% to a career high, while pairing that with his second highest HR/FB rate. His strikeout rate also rebounded after spiking to a career worst in 2023, which led to 38 additional fly balls in just four more at-bats.

Unfortunately, all those fly balls ruined the rest of his batted ball distribution. He’s become allergic to hitting line drives, and a high percentage of his fly balls have been of the infield variety, which are easy outs. That resulted in an ugly .225 BABIP and just a .235 batting average. He did score a career high 91 runs, so he was pretty darn good in the three categories he contributed in this year.

Josh Naylor

Who wanted a first baseman who hit 20 home runs in 2022, 17 home runs in 2023, and figured to be on the strong side of a platoon, cutting into his PAs and value? Naylor wasn’t exactly a popular name on draft day and I considered myself getting stuck with him at the auction in my local league. Turns out, none of his owners got stuck with him after all, as he was one of the more profitable hitters at the position this year.

The big jump here was from his HR/FB rate, which spiked to a career high, despite his lowest HardHit% and maxEV since 2020, and a Barrel% in line with his previous two seasons. But offsetting some of that power increase was a BABIP that fell to a career low. His batted ball distribution doesn’t look terrible, though did come with his lowest LD% since his 2019 debut. That said, he was probably deserving of a bit better fate on his balls in play.

The elephant in the room here is his half season splits. Check out his monthly HR/FB rates below:

That’s a 23.8% HR/FB rate through June, and then a 13.3% mark over the final three months of the season. So this power outburst was essentially just a first half thing. All his other underlying skills remained relatively stable during each half, so owners ended up getting a powered up Naylor in the first three months, and then the Naylor they thought they drafted over the rest of the season. Given the timing of his results, I’m guessing his price won’t be much difference next year than this one, despite coming off 31 home runs.

He also recorded far more PAs, as he faced left-handers 174 times this year, and wasn’t terrible against them, posting a .311 wOBA. That should ensure he opens the year with the full-time job, but you never know whether a slump would lose him those at-bats. Personally, I think he’s more of a mid-20s home run guy over a similar number of PAs, which remains a playable, but closer to the bottom tier of first baseman in shallow mixed leagues.

Spencer Steer

I hate getting Steer wrong as I was down on him compared to ADP thanks to his xwOBA overperformance in 2023 and the glut of startable hitters on the Reds roster. Luckily for Steer, the glut worked itself out, as a suspension and injuries ensured he played regularly all year.

He did slide offensively, and rather significantly so, as his wOBA plummeted from .355 to just .316. So in that respect, I was right to be skeptical. His BABIP and batting average also plunged, as I suspected they might. However, he ran more often and ended up stealing 10 more bases than last year, while succeeding at an elite clip. It may have been one of the quietest 20/20 seasons of the year.

Even though he batted just .225, he still contributed slightly positive value in runs scored and meaningfully positive value in RBI. His home run total was about replacement level though, so owners weren’t exactly getting the type of stat mix they normally would from their first baseman or corner man.

A healthier Reds next season should ensure Steer remains in the outfield, but that he was a negative in left in every metric you might consult, he’ll once again be a playing time risk. His .316 wOBA, with weak defense, might not cut it as an every day player, so we’ll see what expectations are as we head into next season before calling him a bust again.

Alec Bohm

Looking at Bohm’s fantasy line makes you question how he could have possibly been profitable this year. Compared to 2023, he hit five fewer home runs, recorded 12 fewer runs scored, stole just one additional base, and hit .280 versus .274, which is negligible. Clearly, the offensive environment must have been worse this year, and indeed it was — the league hit more than 400 home runs fewer this season than last, and batted .243, versus .248. So Bohm’s contributions, although clearly worse than his prior year, was actually worth more than forecasted.

It’s surprising he hasn’t hit for more power yet. His HardHit% is well above average and his maxEV has generally been just over 110 MPH, both suggesting he hits the ball hard. The problem stems from his Barrel%, which is significantly lower than you would expect given the aforementioned HardHit% and maxEV. He’s simply been unable to pair strong exit velocity with an optimal launch angle to up both his HR/FB rate and ISO. One thing holding back his power is a low FB%, which has been stuck in the low-30% range. So there’s upside there, in addition to his Barrel%. Still just 28 years old, he has time to experience a power surge, which could potentially double his home run total.

The foundation is there for a strong fantasy season, as he improved his strikeout rate and SwStk% for the third straight year, so he doesn’t even need an above average BABIP to hit for a positively valued batting average. We’re just waiting on the power surge now, which could come at any time.

Jake Cronenworth

After last year’s disappointing home run total, Cronenworth rebounded as his HR/FB rate returned to double digits for the second time in his career. The highest HardHit% and Barrel% since his 2020 debut, along with his highest maxEV, drove the increased home run power, though oddly his ISO was barely above last year’s mark, which represented his career worst. Still, his home run total jumped back into the high teens, and he contributed a touch of the rest of the counting stats to truly do a little of this and a little of that, without standing out anywhere.

HIs xwOBA suggests he deserved much better results, and his batted ball distribution would seem to suggest he was due for a better than .274 BABIP. Heading into his age 31 season, this is likely what we’re going to get, as he’s the definition of an accumulator who needs regular playing time to hold any sort of fantasy value. You probably played him at second base or middle infield and for as long as he’s starting, should continue to deliver low end value there.