Final Week Ottoneu Auctions & Cuts

You’ve pushed through six months of baseball. You have set your lineups daily (or almost daily, or weekly, or something). You have bid on more auctions than you can count. And here you are, six days of baseball remaining until we hit the off-season, and you are wondering what to do now.

That depends a lot on where you are in the standings but there are a few things to keep in mind as you enjoy this final week of fantasy baseball.

Let’s start with logistics, then we will get to strategy. The first thing to note is that auctions need to be started by Friday night at 11:59 p.m. ET. In-season auctions are meant to be “in-season” and auctions started after that point in time would end after the season. So if you get to Saturday and realize you really want to pick up some prospect or an injured veteran or something, it will be too late. Whether you start those auctions ASAP or at the last second is a strategic question (more on that later), but don’t wait until the weekend.

Whenever you start or bid on auctions, plan to get your roster “legal” before the off-season. I put “legal” in quotes because this isn’t entirely clear. The penalty for being over the roster limit (i.e., more than 40 players + 60 day IL slots or over $400 +/- loans) is that you cannot bid in auctions or set your lineups or make trades. Obviously once the season is over, none of those things matter. However, in the leagues where I am a commissioner, I ensure all rosters are legal before arbitration starts. I want to avoid a manager starting 20 auctions on Thursday, winning them all for $10 a piece, and then just rolling into the off-season with 65 players and $700 in salary. As of Sunday, if I see a team is not legal, I give them a day or so to get legal, or I remove their most-recently added players until they are legal.

If you are a commissioner, I would recommend you do the same and I would recommend you let your league know that you plan to do the same. If a league does NOT want to enforce that, that is your choice. Just know that having a bunch of teams with like 60 players makes the off-season less fun.

Waiver claims process up until Sunday night at 11:59 pm ET so keep that in mind with cuts. If you cut a guy Saturday evening, someone might claim him. If you cut him Sunday morning, that claim won’t process.

Turning to strategic considerations, the first thing I think about is figuring out who I might want to pick up via auction. I look at three things:

1. Who are the most interesting prospects available in this league? This doesn’t necessarily mean “highest ranked.” I like to look for rankings that have been updated recently and identify players who were outside the top 100 or maybe the top 50 pre- or mid-season, but are creeping up lists now. Who would most fantasy managers think of as a middling prospect but, by the time January rolls around, the hype machine will be spinning. A few examples of players I have picked up recently that fit this model: Chase DeLauter, Adael Amador, Cade Horton, and Roman Anthony. Some of these guys are already getting hype, but their cost lags what I think their value will be in a few months. Find those guys.
2. Who is on the 60-day IL and might be forgotten? This is a less exciting list, most years. But I know some leagues are auctioning guys like Shane McClanahan, Trevor Rogers, and Frankie Montas. These guys don’t use up a roster spot so if you have cash to burn, you might as well grab them. Even if you think they aren’t valuable for 2024 (like McClanahan) or you just think they aren’t good anymore (Montas perhaps?) you never know who might offer you a trade in the off-season or what news might change your thinking.
3. What free agents could have interesting keeper or trade value? Javier Assad has been cut in a few of my leagues recently, as he has left the Cubs rotation. But who knows what his role will be next year and how he’ll be viewed by the masses by January. He could be worth picking up. There are other names like this on the FA wire in every league and they are more interesting options to hold into the off-season than an overpriced guy who you know you won’t keep.
4. Who is being cut that I might want? Watch transactions in your leagues closely. You never know who might get cut as a second-place team makes a desperate move to try to catch first or a 5th place team ditches overpriced players to prep for next year.

I then look at who I want to cut. I’ll trim my bullpen down to the bare minimum, which might vary by league. Some leagues don’t care if you roster any RP, others think you should have five. Most of mine fall in between and so I get down to 2-4 RP depending who might be keepable to open up roster spots.

I’ll ditch prospects who are less valuable than a potential free agent prospect. I like Matt Mervis but I have soured on him a bit and I would rather have any of the four guys I named in point 1 above. If I don’t have a better cut, I’ll cut Mervis for one of them.

I get rid of players who were important to contending this year but no longer matter. That $18 OF producing at a $5 level but who was still often in your lineup? At some point this week, you won’t need him anymore. That $50 SP who is an obvious off-season cut? I will probably ditch him, as well.

I then rank my potential additions and my potential cuts and figure out a plan. I might have 20 guys I think are interesting pickups, but only three guys I want to cut. Or I might have three guys I definitely want to cut and a few more (like Mervis) who I would cut only if I get the right replacement. I use that to determine what auctions to start. As an example, if I have nine players I want to pick up, four obvious cuts, and three more potential cuts, I can start four auctions without much through, but after that I have to compare #5 on my “pickup” list with the next player on my cut list and determine what I am doing. If my next potential cut is Mervis, and my #5 pickup is Horton, I am starting that auction and cutting Mervis if needed. If my #5 pickup is Assad, I probably keep Mervis and don’t start the auction.

When it comes to cutting expensive veterans, I break them into two groups:

1. Overpriced but only barely: Think of a $70 Shohei Ohtani, who you don’t want over $60 next year. He might be a cut for you in January, but if you cut him today, someone else can claim him at $70 or start an auction for him with a $35 minimum bid. I do not want to cut that Ohtani yet. I might cut him Friday or Saturday (if someone claims him, so be it), and I would have no problem cutting him Sunday (ensuring he is a free agent through the off-season) but I am not cutting him any earlier than that.
2. Overpriced by a lot: Think of a $60 Max Scherzer. I am not sure what his price will be next year, but if someone wants to auction him at $30, I am not sure I care that deeply. If I think there is better use of that cap space, I’ll cut him whenever.

As for the bidding strategy, my thinking is different this time of year. Typically I bid based on player value, with some alterations based on cap space. If I want a player with a $5 value and I have $2 of cap, I might only bid $3 to avoid a painful cut. If I want that player and have $70 in cap space, I might bid $5 or $6 because the cap space just isn’t that important to me, but I don’t know if I might need that cap space later in the year.

But this time of year, budget drives my bidding. If I have plenty of cap and there is a $4 player out there I want, I might bid $10 or more. Come Sunday, that cap is gone and there is no benefit to saving it. If my choice is to have that player at $10 or to risk someone else getting him at $5, I would rather have him at $10. If, on the other hand, I have limited cap, I need to make sure I have a cut I am comfortable with before bidding too high. It’s a subtle difference, but I bid this week to use up my cap, not to find values. The hope is I do both – some of my $4 prospects I land for $10 and cut in January, but another slips through and my $8 bid ends up only costing me $2.

Finally, there is a question of timing, and this is also budget-based. If I have limited cap space and know that I need to cut some expensive stars to make the bids I want to make, I want to wait and start auctions as late in the week as possible. I want to limit the opportunities for my league-mates to buy the players I cut for a discount, ideally by cutting them Friday or later.

If I have a lot of cash, I want to start auctions as early as possible. I can bid up the players in those auctions without risk. If I win them, great. If they are cheaper, I have money to bid more later in the week. If I lose those auctions, I can start other ones. And if my high bids for another team to cut a star to make room, I am well-positioned to use my cap to pickup that star.

One caveat to all of this: Flags fly forever. Everything I say above can and should be overridden by anything that helps you win. I said not to cut Ohtani yet, but if cutting Ohtani now means you can add four SP lined up to go on Friday and help you max out your innings pitched, you might have to do that. Giving someone at discount on Ohtani isn’t fun. Finishing 30 points out of first because you left 15 innings on the table is worse. If there are fun prospects out there you want to pick up, but any cut will impact your ability to max out your games played, you just have to wait it out. You can start those auctions later in the week, but if someone else starts them now, you might have to sit them out. Win the league first, worry about next year later.