Final Week Hitter With 7 Game Schedules

Sometimes leagues are won or lost by just one run scored, RBI, or hit. So it pays to pay attention to how many games your fantasy players are scheduled to play during the final week of the regular season. There are six teams that play seven games this week. Let’s discuss a player from each who might be available in your league.

Bobby Bradley | CLE 1B

The 25-year-old Bradley was only the team’s 38th best prospect on their 2021 graduates list, but the reason for it is moot for the final week of the season. The only thing you need to know is that he owns big raw power, which was slapped with a 70 grade. His HR/FB rate has been around the 30% mark or higher from his 2019 and 2021 Triple-A stints, as well as his time with the Indians this year. Of course, he strikes out a lot too, but he’s still easily on a 30 homer pace over a full season.

Bradley has been hitting fifth for nearly all of September, which is a great RBI spot. The left-hander is part of a platoon and won’t start against southpaws, but with the Indians only scheduled to face one lefty that we know of right now, that merely puts Bradley in the same crowd as the majority of fantasy players. Typically he’d lose value because of the platoon, but in this case, he’s just not gaining extra value from the extra game the team plays. He also might pinch hit in the game he doesn’t start and every at-bat is a possible home run.

Jeimer Candelario | DET 1B/3B

Candelario reminds me of Nick Castellanos. He has posted solid walk and strikeout rates, owns above average power with maxEV marks over 110, and has improved his batted ball profile to drive a high BABIP. There appears to be ample HR/FB rate upside, though like Castellanos, it seems like Comerica Park has suppressed that home run power. His career HR/FB rate is 1.3% lower at home than away. So it’s unusual to call it good news that the Tigers will be on the road in six of seven games this week.

Obviously, my optimism about Candelario’s long-term upside doesn’t matter much when we’re just talking about one week. But he owns a solid skill set, hits in the middle of the lineup, and has the potential to enjoy a strong week.

Nicky Lopez | KC 2B/SS

I discussed Lopez a couple of weeks ago when naming cheap speed options for the rest of the season. He has stolen two bases since then and makes for the perfect pickup if a steal or two could potentially gain you a point. He has also batted second in every start since August 18, so he’s a potential source of runs scored as well.

Lastly, though it’s silly to project batting average over just one week of games, he does sport a fabulous strikeout rate to go along with a .351 BABIP, so he could even crank out a bunch of hits and keep you ahead in batting average or get you that hit or two you need to overtake the team just ahead of you.

Lewin Diaz | MIA 1B

Diaz is a 24-year-old rookie who sits 14th among 2021 graduations in the Marlins organization. With 60 grade Raw Power, he’s exactly the type to gamble on during the final week if a homer or two could gain you a point.

Since 2019, he has posted double digit HR/FB rates and mid-.250 ISO marks, suggesting even more home run power could be on the way as he has been a doubles machine. He never struggled to make contact in the minors and mostly posted strikeout rates below 20%, which is always impressive for a power hitter. Of course, his contact ability has taken a dive in the Majors, but he has still shown excellent power.

Diaz is playing every day for the Marlins, generally hitting sixth and there’s no reason to think he’ll need a break over the final week of the season.

Jonathan Villar | NYM 2B/SS/3B

It’s baffling to me that Villar is only owned in 45% of CBS leagues, as he’s once again showing his combo of power and speed, though tilted more toward power this year surprisingly enough. Villar has fully shaken off last year’s disappointing season, which followed his fantasy MVP-caliber year in 2019.

The difference this year is his FB% has jumped back up to its peak in 2019, while his HR/FB rate has jumped to at least 19% for the third time in his career. So he’s hitting more fly balls and doing more damage with those fly balls. Unfortunately, his running game has slowed significantly, as this year might end up being his lowest steal total since 2015, and that year he only recorded 128 plate appearances.

With Sprint Speed that ranks just 275th this year, it’s clear Villar isn’t the burner he once was. But he’s still an above average source of steals, could hit a homer or two in a week, and is more secure in his playing time with JD Davis back on the IL.

Yoshi Tsutsugo | PIT OF

Tsutsugo came over from Japan to debut last year with the Rays after a strong career overseas. His first year here was a disappointment though and he was ultimately cut by two teams this year after opening the season in even worse fashion than last year. Then he caught on with the Pirates and has been a new man.

After failing to homer in 103 at-bats split between the Rays and Dodgers this year, he has already homered eight times with the Pirates in five fewer at-bats. He also significantly improved his strikeout rate, backed by a single digit SwStk%, and has become an extreme fly ball hitter. His batted ball profile doesn’t lend itself to a BABIP over .300, but that’s more of a long-term concern and not something to care about over the final week.

Tsutsugo’s sudden transformation has essentially made him the team’s starting right fielder and he even started against the last left-hander they faced. He has also been switching between batting second and cleanup, so you know he’ll have a good spot in the lineup. Remember his previous work was always a pretty small sample size, so combine that with the possibility he needed to adjust to Major League pitching, and it’s possible this is the real Tsutsugo.