Final 2014 Zobrist Values

Last year for my FG+ article I created a methodology to find unheralded prospects similar to Ben Zobrist and Matt Carpenter by looking at recent minor league walk, strikeout and extra base hit numbers. I named my metric ZOBRIST and it performed better than I expected. I identified 10 players to watch for during the 2014 season and few had good MLB seasons like Kole Calhoun, Marcus Semien and Scott Van Slyke. I have decided to look again for similar players in 2015 with a few changes to the evaluations.

One issue I noticed when I went back and looked at the data was how one of the three traits (power, walks and strikeouts) could hurt the hitters chances for success. A hitter could have no strikeouts, a ton of walks and zero power so they could rate high with my metric. The problem is that the complete lack of power would get exposed in the majors. I needed to set a minimum level for each of the three stats. I use Chris St. John’s minor league walk and strikeout values and a replace level power numbers to set a minimum baseline each hitter must reach.

With the the limits in place, only 50 hitters made the cut.

Name	Team (2014)	ZOBRIST	PA	Age
Anna, Dean William	Pirates	427	89	27
Lamb, Jacob Ryan	Diamondbacks	381	21	23
Freitas, David	Orioles	357	28	25
Flores, Luis	Cubs	305	118	27
Smolinski, Jacob M.	Rangers	294	34	25
Blanks, Kyle Nathaniel	Athletics	286	28	27
Campbell, Eric Singleton	Mets	221	163	27
Gyorko, Jedd Lindon	Padres	214	28	25
Goebbert, Jacob Dwayne	Padres	206	339	26
Curtis, Jermaine Antwann	Cardinals	201	279	26
Betts, Markus Lynn	Red Sox	199	253	21
Giavotella, Johnny Arthur, Jr.	Royals	199	493	26
Soler, Jorge Carlos	Cubs	197	79	22
La Stella, Thomas F.	Braves	192	198	25
Weeks, Jemile Nykiwa	Orioles	187	257	27
Figueroa, Stephen Cole	Rays	186	312	27
Shuck, Jack Burdett III	Angels	185	465	27
Morrison, Justis Logan	Mariners	182	77	26
Jackson, Ryan Christopher	Padres	182	22	26
Valdespin, Jordany	Marlins	181	265	26
Nicol, Sean	Nationals	174	23	27
Liriano, Rymer Omar	Padres	169	71	23
Cabrera, Everth	Padres	167	24	27
Barnes, Austin Scott	Marlins	166	348	24
Semien, Marcus Andrew	White Sox	164	366	23
Casali, Curtis Michael	Rays	163	96	25
Cooper, David Fletcher	Indians	160	163	27
O’Neill, Michael John	Cardinals	154	65	26
Zarraga, Shawn	Brewers	148	267	25
Shaw, Travis R.	Red Sox	144	208	24
Pizzano, Dario	Mariners	124	328	23
Hunter, Cedric Scott	Braves	123	470	26
Machado, Dixon Javier	Tigers	116	342	22
Smith, Tyler	Mariners	110	87	23
Rosa, Viosergy	Marlins	108	89	24
Hicks, Aaron Michael	Twins	108	178	24
Russell, Addison W.	Athletics	105	57	20
Pina, Manuel Elias	Mariners	104	69	27
Krizan, Jason	Tigers	103	525	25
Fields, Daniel L.	Tigers	103	35	23
Peralta, Senger David	Diamondbacks	102	223	26
Cutler, Charles Caleb	Cubs	102	342	27
Lopez, Rafael Manuel	Cubs	102	177	26
Chen, Pin-Chieh	Cubs	99	182	22
Perez, Rossmel	Reds	99	280	24
Keys, Brent A.	Marlins	96	361	23
Navarro, Reynaldo	Reds	95	291	24
Davis, Taylor	Cubs	95	152	24
Johnson, Jamie	Tigers	94	522	27
Crumbliss, Conner	Athletics	94	522	27

Here are my thoughts on some of the hitters.

Johnny Giavotella (2B, Angels) – Giavotella has always hit in the minors, but his issue is defense. He is basically a first baseman, but doesn’t hit well enough to play there. He continues to stay at 2B where he makes plays like this one. Josh Rutledge is ahead of him on the Angels depth chart, so there is a chance he could see time in the majors once Rutledge falters. If Giavotella does get the call, feel free to use him since his defense won’t count against you. (Steamer Projected wRC+ = 97)

Jake Goebbert (1B, Padres) – The main issue with Goebbert is he a 1B and OF. The Padres are loaded in the OF and he probably doesn’t hit well enough to play 1B (Steamer Projected wRC+ = 95)

Austin Barnes (2B/C, Dodgers) – He always had plate discipline and finally showed some power in 2014. I will have my eye on him for 2015 and beyond (Steamer Projected wRC+ = 87)

Now, besides the players within the limits, I always like to know where every player ranks. Here is the full list without the minimum values. Only hitters who were in AA or AAA in 2014 are included.

Well, I introduced ZOBRIST with some success last year and hope to improve upon it this season. It is used to find non-elite prospects who have good plate discipline and some power. Some times these players don’t end up contributing, but sometimes they can be game changers especially in deeper formats.