February Rankings – Relievers
We’re going position by position this week and next with our initial roll out of rankings. We will update these in March based on Spring Training activity and injuries.
We’re using Yahoo! eligibility requirements which is 5 starts or 10 appearances. These rankings assume the standard 5×5 categories and a re-draft league. If we forgot someone, please let us know in the comments and we’ll make sure he’s added for the updates. If you have questions for a specific ranker on something he did, let us know in the comments. We can also be reached via Twitter:
There will be differences, sharp differences, within the rankings. The rankers have different philosophies when it comes to ranking, some of which you’re no doubt familiar with through previous iterations. Of course the idea that we’d all think the same would be silly because then what would be the point of including multiple rankers?! Think someone should be higher or lower? Make a case. Let us know why you think that. The chart is sortable. If a ranker didn’t rank someone that the others did, he was given that ranker’s last rank +1.
Key:
- AVG– just the average of the seven ranking sets
- AVG– the average minus the high and low rankings
- SPLIT– the difference between the high and low rankings
Previous Editions:
Al originally ranked a few RP-eligible SPs but no one else did so I removed them and figured I’d just leave a list of them here. These players are particularly useful in H2H leagues that use specific SP and RP spots. If you’re able to put a starter with relief eligibility in that spot, it can be a huge leg up, especially if they’re actually good. So here are the best RP-eligible SPs:
- Danny Duffy
- Patrick Corbin
- Dylan Bundy
- Luis Perdomo
- Clay Buchholz
- Matt Andriese
- Luis Severino
- Andrew Triggs
- Mike Montgomery*
- Christopher Devenski*
- Jhoulys Chacin
- Zack Godley*
- Cody Anderson*
*-not yet starting, but keep a close eye on them
Matt Strahm hasn’t started in the majors yet, but could do so in 2017 and he’d be a very intriguing RP-eligible SP, too.
| Rk | NAME | Paul S | Ben | Al | Alan | AVG | Adj. AVG | Split |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kenley Jansen | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 1 |
| 2 | Aroldis Chapman | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 2 |
| 3 | Zach Britton | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1 |
| 4 | Mark Melancon | 4 | 5 | 8 | 4 | 5.3 | 4.5 | 4 |
| 5 | Seung Hwan Oh | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 1 |
| 6 | Ken Giles | 5 | 4 | 12 | 6 | 6.8 | 5.5 | 8 |
| 7 | Edwin Diaz | 9 | 7 | 6 | 9 | 7.8 | 8.0 | 3 |
| 8 | Craig Kimbrel | 10 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 3 |
| 9 | Roberto Osuna | 8 | 8 | 11 | 8 | 8.8 | 8.0 | 3 |
| 10 | Kelvin Herrera | 7 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 9.0 | 9.5 | 3 |
| 11 | Wade Davis | 12 | 12 | 4 | 12 | 10.0 | 12.0 | 8 |
| 12 | Alex Colome | 13 | 11 | 9 | 13 | 11.5 | 12.0 | 4 |
| 13 | Cody Allen | 11 | 13 | 13 | 11 | 12.0 | 12.0 | 2 |
| 14 | Andrew Miller | 14 | 20 | 16 | 14 | 16.0 | 15.0 | 6 |
| 15 | Tony Watson | 18 | 18 | 15 | 15 | 16.5 | 16.5 | 3 |
| 16 | A.J. Ramos | 15 | 15 | 21 | 17 | 17.0 | 16.0 | 6 |
| 17 | Adam Ottavino | 16 | 14 | 20 | 19 | 17.3 | 17.5 | 6 |
| 18 | Francisco Rodriguez | 17 | 17 | 18 | 18 | 17.5 | 17.5 | 1 |
| 19 | David Robertson | 20 | 21 | 14 | 16 | 17.8 | 18.0 | 7 |
| 20 | Jeurys Familia | 23 | 16 | 17 | 20 | 19.0 | 18.5 | 7 |
| 21 | Sam Dyson | 22 | 19 | 19 | 22 | 20.5 | 20.5 | 3 |
| 22 | Jim Johnson | 19 | 25 | 24 | 21 | 22.3 | 22.5 | 6 |
| 23 | Neftali Feliz | 21 | 22 | 23 | 25 | 22.8 | 22.5 | 4 |
| 24 | Dellin Betances | 26 | 24 | 22 | 23 | 23.8 | 23.5 | 4 |
| 25 | Shawn Kelley | 27 | 23 | 27 | 24 | 25.3 | 25.5 | 4 |
| 26 | Raisel Iglesias | 25 | 28 | 26 | 27 | 26.5 | 26.5 | 3 |
| 27 | Ryan Madson | 28 | 26 | 25 | 32 | 27.8 | 27.0 | 7 |
| 28 | Brandon Maurer | 29 | 27 | 29 | 29 | 28.5 | 29.0 | 2 |
| 29 | Addison Reed | 24 | 40 | 30 | 26 | 30.0 | 28.0 | 16 |
| 30 | Nate Jones | 30 | 31 | 31 | 34 | 31.5 | 31.0 | 4 |
| 31 | Cam Bedrosian | 32 | 35 | 34 | 30 | 32.8 | 33.0 | 5 |
| 32 | Hector Neris | 33 | 30 | 38 | 31 | 33.0 | 32.0 | 8 |
| 33 | Fernando Rodney | 34 | 29 | 38 | 33 | 33.5 | 33.5 | 9 |
| 34 | Joaquin Benoit | 31 | 39 | 38 | 28 | 34.0 | 34.5 | 11 |
| 35 | Brandon Kintzler | 36 | 32 | 33 | 35 | 34.0 | 34.0 | 4 |
| 36 | Jeanmar Gomez | 39 | 33 | 35 | 37 | 36.0 | 36.0 | 6 |
| 37 | Sean Doolittle | 35 | 37 | 38 | 38 | 37.0 | 37.5 | 3 |
| 38 | Carter Capps | 44 | 36 | 28 | 42 | 37.5 | 39.0 | 16 |
| 39 | Huston Street | 49 | 34 | 32 | 41 | 39.0 | 37.5 | 17 |
| 40 | Matt Bush | 37 | 38 | 38 | 43 | 39.0 | 38.0 | 6 |
is strahm not listed because he’s considered a starter, a prospect or just didn’t make the cut?
Just missed, but I added a note about him bc he could be a great RP-eligible SP if he makes the rotation in KC.
Yost said Feb. 14 that Strahm would begin the season in the bullpen:
http://www.kansascity.com/sports/mlb/kansas-city-royals/article132740694.html
Injuries or bad performances in April might open the door to the rotation, and I like Strahm, especially in his home park.
Iglesias is the only SP-eligible one out of the 40, correct?
Would love this list as well. 5 SPs, 2 RPs, 1 P in my league format – love searching for extra relivers to fit in the SP slots to help out ratios.
They usually publish that list sometime before the season. I’ve poked around and I don’t think there are many this year. Iglesias and David Phelps (Marlins) are the ones I found.
Yes
40 isn’t a lot for deeper leagues, especially ones that count holds too. Any chance of adding in the next 50 or so names, or is it essentially a crap shot at that point?
It was more the latter, it’s just a preference-based crapshoot after 40 so we didn’t bother going much deeper
Thoughts on Carl Edwards? Is the improved control a mirage? Or is the BABIP regression going to hit so hard that he’s going to have trouble even being a 7th inning guy? (Or BOTH!)
41 to about 70 is a group of not terribly different guys that are tough to separate and he falls into that group
Matt, check out this list… I think it’ll help. We keep it updated throughout the season as well. Keep in mind though, this list isn’t ranked according to how skilled the relievers are, but more how close to getting saves they are.
I’d certainly take Hector Neris over Brad Boxberger and Huston Street based just on skills, but I think the latter 2 are slightly more likely to get saves early on as the Phils have committed to Jeanmar for the beginning of the season at least.
http://www.therotosaurus.com/mlb-speculative-saves/
So to a man, all you guys are that confident in Oh’s health, huh? How come?
What’s wrong with him? Last I’d seen he was pitching in the WBC which suggests a measure of health to me
This sparks my curiosity…I know of 0 health concerns for him. Shandler gives him an A health grade as well. What are you referring to?
My bad in that I thought he was older than he is, which I did now just look up. But my other concern was the injury he suffered last year, his groin was bothering him all September. I’m very happy to say I’ve no idea if such tend to recur. But given that past injury does correlate to future injury, and that even tho’ he’s not the geezer I thought he was he is still 34, I sure don’t see an ‘A’ health grade. Unless Shandler hands them out like candy.
He doesn’t actually, and I don’t think a slight groin strain that didn’t even make him miss any time is worth lowering his ranking.
Bedrosian also seems quite low. You guys: 1), don’t think he’s good enough to hold the job? 2), figure Scioscia just can’t resist going to Street instead? 3), are much more down on the Angels than the projections are?
While I agree Bedrosian is definitely too low, I think his health issues along with the money they’re paying Huston Street might be causes for pause. Honestly I’m more concerned about his health though… Street looks like he’s cooked so even if he starts with the job I don’t expect him to hold onto it for long.
OK, I see he had a couple of things last year, not just the one. Yeah, unless Cam gets on the mound within 10 days, that rating looks just about right then.
How about a list of RP with SP eligibility who will figure in late inning relief roles? I find them extremely valuable in roto leagues for extra saves/holds.
That seems a little niche and I’m not sure there are many of those beyond Iglesias. Maybe you could compile a list here in the comments and I’d gladly give you my thoughts on em.
David Phelps
Juan Nicasio
Joe Kelly
Thanks
Good names!
Another name to consider if you like to play the SP in a RP spot or vice versa is Alex Wood. 10 starts and 4 relief appearances last year but seems a good bet to at least start the year in the pen behind Kershaw, Hill, Maeda, Urias, Kazmir, McCarthy and Ryu so he should get RP eligibility pretty quickly. Obviously has zero chance of taking over closer but had bumped up his velo last year and was pitching pretty well before going down with an injury (3.18 FIP)
Ryu? Being optimistic, no? (like me in each of the last 2 years; oops)
These rankings are actually very close to ours, and the best I’ve seen from any other site. However I do think Melancon is way overvalued here. He’s good, but the added Ks and better ratios (that we project anyways) from Diaz, Oh, Kimbrel, and Giles make them much better picks than Melancon. We have Osuna and Herrera above Melancon as well, though they’re in the same tier so not far off.
We think Familia will begin the season under suspension, allowing Reed to take over and run with the job – people have been taking Familia WAY too high all offseason given the risk surrounding him.
We also project Drew Storen to close over Raisel Iglesias as the Reds are paying Storen a lot of money and have stated they prefer to keep Iglesias in a position where he can pitch multiple innings, not just the last inning. Iglesias will get some saves, but we’re betting Storen gets the bulk.
I’d have Joe Blanton (battling with Kelley), Greg Holland (battling with Ottavino and he got paid like a closer), and Brad Boxberger (if Colome is traded) on this list as well as they could all see saves early on… though if this is a top 40 list only I can see leaving them off.
I’m just debating a few minor grievances, but overall though these are really good rankings… keep up the good work as always, FanGraphs!
Closer Rankings – http://www.therotosaurus.com/player-rankings/closer-rankings/
Speculative Saves – http://www.therotosaurus.com/mlb-speculative-saves/
Voting it down without explaining why? I don’t think anything I said is wrong, but if you think it is please explain why…maybe there’s information I’m missing, or maybe there’s something you are.
Paul, I’m really curious as to why you and the Fangraphs staff are so high on Melancon…is it just because he’s been good for 4 straight years? He’s also averaged 7.75 K/9 the last 2 seasons… compare that to what you’d get from Diaz, Kimbrel, Giles, and Oh. I’m assuming it’s just because those other guys haven’t done it for as long (outside of Kimbrel)?
I know Kimbrel had command issues last season after his knee injury but that was clearly the reason as he was great before the injury and always has been for his whole career. Giles struggled giving up too many HRs last year but then settled in and dominated in the 2nd half (until the final week where he got wrecked)… I have little concern over him either. Diaz and Oh have such great command with elite swing and miss stuff that I can’t see a reason to downgrade them either.
Your comment is an attempt to drive traffic to your site so I voted you down.
My comment was an attempt to give an opinion about a topic that I know a lot about and to spur additional conversation. I was hoping people might go, look, and say “I think you have so and so too high/low”…it’s not like I just posted my website and ran. So I guess I can’t tell people to visit my site which might actually help them because it’s not FanGraphs? I go to FanGraphs every day and it’s the best website out there overall for fantasy baseball (and baseball in general) but that doesn’t mean that they’re the be all and end all and no one should ever go to another site because you couldn’t possibly learn something from any site other than FanGraphs. Sorry. I honestly am just trying to help.
Too bad the Orioles didn’t have this ranking a week ago.
Might not have lost Brad Brach’s arbitration case
Paul,
Kenley at $18 or Edwin Diaz at $10?
The other would return to the auction
$260 budget
Personally I’d go Diaz… he could even conceivably be better than Jansen this year so I’d save the $8
I mean, it could happen, but the likelihood is very low. Jansen has 400 elite IP, Diaz has 50.
True. Jansen is also more of a DL risk though. For me, I’d save the $8 but I don’t think you’re really wrong either way.
Who are your other keepers?
Votto, Altuve, Bryant, Segura, Blackmon, Pederson, Archer, Degrom, Stroman. OBP league
I was lookin for prices to see if you could afford the splurge on Jansen. I’m really torn, I agree you can’t really pick “WRONG”. Based on the names, it seems you’re prob spending on Votto and Altuve, but probably saving major on Bryant given how early he is into his career.
Votto 36
Altuve 41
Bryant 25 (signing long term this year)
Segura 1
Blackmon 15
Pederson 10
Archer 15
DeGrom 15
Stroman 1
$260 budget, so with Jansen i would have 83 to spend, with Diaz 91.
Still need to buy 2 C, MI, CI, 3 OF, Util and 5 pitchers
12 team league
OK, I think you go Diaz and save the $8
Nice team…like all those guys and good balance
Without knowing what is available in the auction, how are you spending my remaining $91. Thanks for the help guys!
Seems like Tony Watson might be a bit overrated here, given everything about last year that makes it look like a heavy workload is catching up to him in his 30s. He has been a liability for Ks for two years running now…
Agree.. I have him below Dyson, K-Rod, and Robertson though he isn’t ranked egregiously high like I think Melancon is.